UFC Best Bets for UFC 263

UFC Best Bets for UFC 263
Sat 12th June 2021

The eagerly awaited rematch between Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori headlines UFC 263, a middleweight title fight which is sure to see sparks fly given how dominant both fighters have performed in this division since their last meeting. 

The Co-Main doesn’t let up either, with another title defense set to take place between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno following their 5 round slugfest toward the end of 2020. 

Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori

Since beating Vettori in their first clash the Style Bender continued his flawless run in the middleweight division, claiming the pelts of the promotions best, including the likes of Anderson Silva, Kelvin Gastelum, Robert Whittaker, and the list goes on.

Adesanya has cemented himself as the middleweight to beat, such was his desire to compete that he moved up a weight division to face Jan Blachowicz in a bid to become a dual belt holder. However, he underestimated the strength of the Light Heavyweight Champ, struggling to defend the takedowns of the big Pole and losing via unanimous decision.

Vettori has enjoyed a similar run since his split decision defeat to Adesanya back in April of 2018, bouncing back with 5 straight wins, 4 of which went the distance and the other a dominant submission finish of Karl Roberson.

Head to head we can’t see things going differently from their first meeting, Vettori may be inspired by how Blachowicz outperformed the Stylebender on the mat, but that mostly boiled down to Blachowicz’s sheer size, which Vettori is unable to replicate.

This leaves the Italians’ options limited, and while he can undoubtedly go the distance with Issy it is incredibly unlikely he will be able to finish him in that time, leaving the bout to go to a decision which should favour the Style Bender.

UFC Prediction: Israel Adesanya (-250)
Method of Victory: Israel Adesanya by Points (+160)

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Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno 

The Co-Main Event sees Brandon Moreno challenge Deiveson Figueiredo for the flyweight strap in a rematch of their UFC 256 bout, which ended in a draw. Both fighters have not been seen since that fight, and with plenty of time in camp this is one of the most mouthwatering matchups on the card.

Their last bout went the full 5 rounds, with both fighters landing a similar amount of strikes and displaying their ability to take a hit. Moreno did well to land 4 takedowns, and even showed an advantage in terms of grappling, but Figueiredo is the better fighter offensively, and he seemed to dictate the pace for the majority of their first fight.

It awaits to be seen how much they have improved since last year’s fight, but we can’t look past Figuerdo based on what we have seen, he is the stronger finisher of the two and can survive whatever Moreno throws at him.

UFC Pick – Deiveson Figueiredo (-210)
Method of Victory – Deiveson Figueiredo by KO/TKO

Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz

In one of the more interesting bouts of the evening, fan favourite Nate Diaz makes his return to the octagon after a year and a half away from the sport to face the streaking Englishman, Leon Edwards. 

At 36 years old there is no denying that Diaz is not the same fighter he once was. His last fight was back in November of 2019 in a fairly one sided bout against Jorge Masvidal, which saw the Stockton Slugger put down in the third round. His cardio was questionable back then, raising concerns about how he will perform in this 5 round fight if it does go deep. 

Edwards on the other hand is running hot, with 8 straight wins under his belt he entered his last fight against Belal Muhammad, which unfortunately had to be ruled a no contest due to a painful eye poke sustained by Muhammad.

Irrespective of that, Edwards is one of the most underrated fighters in the promotion, he is an incredibly strong wrestler and utilizes low kicks and counter punches to devastating effect, which is likely to cause a real problem for Diaz.

While the fans love to hate on the Englishman, his talent is undeniable, and had this fight taken place a few years ago it may have been a different story, but there is no reason that Edwards should be losing today against a slowed down Nate Diaz, and his odds reflect that.

UFC Prediction: Leon Edwards (-590)
Method of Victory: Leon Edwards by KO/TKO & Round 3 (+1200)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Fanduel.

Connor is a passionate writer and sporting fanatic, with a focus on all things soccer, NBA, and NHL. Happy to chew your ear off about his beloved Tottenham Hotspur, or talk odds on the latest ball game. Connor always delivers the latest in breaking news, matchday analysis and predictions.