Free NFL Picks Today: Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns 1/1/23

Free NFL Picks Today: Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns 1/1/23
Sun 1st January 2023

The Washington Commanders (7-7-1, 3-4-0 Home) host the Cleveland Browns (6-9, 2-5 Away) at FedEx Field on Sunday. The Commanders are two-point favorites, and the total is 40.5.

Cleveland is coming off a 17-10 loss at the hands of the New Orleans Saints at FirstEnergy Stadium last Saturday. Deshaun Watson was 15 of 31 for 135 yards and an interception. Nick Chubb ran 24 times for 92 yards. Amari Cooper was targeted 10 times, catching six passes for 72 yards.

Washington lost 37-20 to the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium last Saturday. Taylor Heinicke threw for 289 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Brian Robinson Jr. carried 22 times for 58 yards. Terry McLaurin scored once. He had four receptions for 77 yards.


The teams are meeting in the regular season for the first time since September 2020, a 34-20 win for the Browns. Baker Mayfield threw two touchdowns for Cleveland. Dwayne Haskins Jr. tossed two touchdowns for Washington.


The Browns are averaging 21.5 points per game for the season, 14th in the NFL, and they are facing a Commanders defense that has surrendered 20.9 PPG (12th). Meanwhile, Washington has scored 19.0 points a game this season, 24th in the league, and Cleveland is allowing 22.9 PPG (21st).

The Browns rank as one of the league’s top teams in rushing yards per game (147.3, 5th), while they are 23rd in passing yards (220.7). The Commanders are eighth in passing yards allowed per game (215.6) and 13th against the run (114.4).

Washington is 21st in the league in passing yards per game (231.4) and 13th in rushing (123.7), while the Browns are allowing 213.9 passing yards (6th) and 134.3 rushing yards per game (25th).

Washington ranks as the one of the lowest volume red zone offenses in the NFL, moving inside the 20-yard-line just 2.7 times per game (31st) and scoring a touchdown on 53% of those possessions (20th).


Through 12 games, Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 12 touchdowns (6 INT) and 217.3 yards per game to lead Cleveland in passing. In six away games this season, he has five TDs (1 INT) and an average of 195.8 yards passing. Nick Chubb leads the team in rushing with an average of 89.6 yards a game over 15 games.

He has 12 touchdowns on the ground. Amari Cooper is the Browns’ leading receiver with 66.9 yards a game and seven TDs. He is averaging 4.9 receptions on 8.3 targets per game.

Taylor Heinicke has 12 passing touchdowns (6 INT) with 206.6 yards per game through nine games to lead Washington. In four home games this season, he has thrown for seven TDs (3 INT) and an average of 184.2 yards.

Brian Robinson Jr. has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 64.5 yards a game through 11 games. He has three total touchdowns, two rushing and one receiving. Terry McLaurin has been a key target in the Commanders’ aerial attack. He has four touchdowns and a 72.8 yard per game average through 15 appearances. Terry McLaurin is averaging 7.3 targets per game (4.8 receptions).

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

Cleveland Browns (+100)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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