Free NFL Picks Today: Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars 1/1/23

Free NFL Picks Today: Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars 1/1/23
Sun 1st January 2023

The Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8, 3-5 Away) will be looking to extend their winning run when they are on the road to face the Houston Texans (2-12-1, 0-6-1 Home) at NRG Stadium on Sunday. The Jaguars are four-point favorites, and the total is 43.5.

Jacksonville is coming off a convincing 19-3 win over the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium last Thursday, their third straight victory. Trevor Lawrence was 20 of 31 for 229 yards. Travis Etienne Jr. ran 22 times for 83 yards. Evan Engram was targeted eight times, catching seven passes for 113 yards.

Houston beat the Tennessee Titans 19-14 at Nissan Stadium last Saturday. Davis Mills threw for 218 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Royce Freeman carried 16 times for 32 yards. Phillip Dorsett II caught three receptions for 45 yards.


The Texans won the first meeting between the teams this season, a 13-6 victory in October, their ninth straight win against Jacksonville.


The Jaguars are averaging 23.5 points per game for the season, 11th in the NFL, and they are facing a Texans defense that has surrendered 23.9 PPG (26th). Meanwhile, Houston has scored 16.9 points a game this season, 30th in the league, and Jacksonville is allowing 22.1 PPG (15th).

The Jaguars rank 11th in the league in passing yards per game (250.3) and 11th in rushing (128.5). Look for them to exploit a matchup advantage on the ground, as the Texans are worst in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (168.6). Against the pass, Houston is 13th (225.7).

Houston has been one of the league’s least successful rushing teams, averaging 88.9 yards per game (30th), while ranking 26th in passing yards (208.0). The Jaguars are allowing 257.9 passing yards (27th) and 114.7 rushing yards per game (14th).Houston ranks as one of the least productive red zone offenses in the NFL, scoring a touchdown on just 47% (28th) of the team’s possessions inside the 20.


Through 15 games, Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 24 touchdowns (7 INT) and 249.9 yards per game to lead Jacksonville in passing. In eight away games this season, he has 13 TDs (2 INT) and an average of 238.9 yards passing. Travis Etienne Jr. leads the team in rushing with an average of 66.7 yards a game over 15 games.

He has four touchdowns on the ground. Christian Kirk is the Jaguars’ leading receiver with 65.9 yards a game and seven TDs. He is averaging 5.1 receptions on 8.1 targets per game.

Davis Mills has 14 passing touchdowns (13 INT) with 201.4 yards per game through 13 games to lead Houston. In six home games this season, he has thrown for nine TDs (7 INT) and an average of 180.3 yards.

Dameon Pierce has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 72.2 yards a game through 13 games. He has five total touchdowns, four rushing and one receiving.

Brandin Cooks has been a key target in the Texans’ passing game. He has two touchdowns and a 50.4 yard per game average through 11 appearances. Brandin Cooks is averaging 7.3 targets per game (4.4 receptions).


Houston is looking to taste victory at home for the first time this season.

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

Jacksonville Jaguars (-185)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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