The mighty have fallen as just one undefeated team remains, and don’t the Arizona Cardinals look good! Our NFL picks looks deeper into their game this weekend as they host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon!
We kick off with our NFL picks on Thursday Night Football as the Seahawks are hosting the Rams and finish it with the rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game between the 3-1 Bills and 2-2 Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
You won’t want to miss our NFL picks with game previews and best bets for the five best games from Week 5’s action.
Thursday, October 7th
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks – 8.20pm EDT
The Los Angeles Rams played their first division game for the season, against the undefeated Cardinals, and suffered their first defeat. They now face another NFC West rival and the team they beat in last season’s Wild Card Playoffs, the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle are coming off their own NFC West rivalry game, beating the 49ers 28-21, in San Francisco.
Tim Newton
Despite this being played in Lumen Field, the Rams go in as 2.5 point favorites and I am slightly surprised that it isn’t more. LA has looked fantastic through the first three games in the season and then just had a flat game against the best team in football so far this season. Losing to the Cardinals is no slight, given they rank first offensively and have a very good defense. They also were coming off a playoff-like game against the Bucs, and were due to hit a flat spot following such a big result there.
They now face a Seattle side whose defense ranks last for yards allowed per game and 21st for points allowed per game. Given Matt Stafford has revitalised the offense and gives a Los Angeles side that beat Seattle two out of three times last year a better playmaker and deep-ball options, it is hard to see this terrible Seahawks defense slowing them down. However on the other side of the ball, Seattle could cause some problems for LA. Russell Wilson has started the year off in incredible fashion, being the only quarterback in the top 25 for passing yards that hasn’t thrown an interception. Combine that with the fact that Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are both top 20 receivers through four games and Chris Carson is moving the ball on the ground, it isn’t hard to see how Seattle is top 10 for points per game and has scored 28+ in three out of four.
In saying that, they haven’t faced a defense as good as LA’s, especially coming off an embarrassing home loss. The Rams have a point to prove and their offense should have a field day on a helpless Seattle defense. Los Angeles laying less than a field goal could be one of the bets of the weekend.
Tim’s NFL Pick: Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-110)
🟢 The Seahawks are breaking out the ‘Action Green’ for their Thursday night showdown with the Rams.
Seattle is 4-0 while wearing the jerseys, per @seahawksPR. pic.twitter.com/SEz06AjuMf
— Seattle Times Sports (@SeaTimesSports) October 5, 2021
Mike Su
The Rams were utterly embarrassed by the Cardinals after many crowned them the league’s best. The Rams now play their division rivals the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle to try to bounce back from the bad loss. The Seahawks themselves are coming off a bounce back game against the 49ers and will be looking to pick up some wins going into the middle of the season. This will be an interesting game for both teams as they both try to catch the division leader, the undefeated Arizona Cardinals.
The Rams got exposed last week by a fast paced Cardinals offense which spread the Rams defense out then ran the ball down the gut. I expect the Seahawks to try the same with Chris Carson and Alex Collins. Look for the Rams defensive weaknesses to be exploited here. However the presence of Aaron Donald may mean that the Seahawks will struggle to run the ball. The Seahawks defense will likely struggle too against the Rams’ high powered offense. On paper, the Rams should win this game due to their defense having a big edge, while their offense also holds a smaller edge over the Seahawks.
The wild card for me is that the Rams will be playing in the Seahawks’ home stadium which is notoriously hard to play in. Few teams have beaten the Seahawks at home with Russ at the helm. Therefore I am going with the Rams winning by a field goal.
Mike’s NFL Pick: Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-110)
Tony Battalio
Following one of the season’s best wins over Tampa Bay, the Rams followed it up in disappointing fashion, dropping a game to the only unbeaten team left in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals. Meanwhile Seattle is sitting at 2-2 coming off a win vs the San Francisco 49ers and they will be at home for this game. It will be a great battle between two of the league’s top QBs in Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson, as well as two of the league’s top targets in Cooper Kupp and DK Metcalf. Early season history points towards Russell and his Seahawks but I believe the Rams offense is too strong this season. I think the Rams easily cover the 2.5 point spread and continue to look like the top team in the NFC right beside the Cardinals.
Tony’s NFL Pick: Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-110)
Sunday, October 10th
Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Chargers – 4.05pm EDT
The Los Angeles Chargers have looked extremely impressive through the first four weeks, beating the Chiefs and the, at the time, undefeated Raiders. They now host the Cleveland Browns, who have pulled off three straight wins and will look to run them into the ground in this contest.
Tim Newton
This is a very intriguing contest and given how good the defenses are, it is hard to split the difference. Both sides have claims that they should be 4-0, given Cleveland would have beaten the Chiefs if they didn’t drop a punt return and if it wasn’t for a Greg Zuerlein 56-yard field goal then the Chargers would have been Dallas. In saying that, the Browns have had a gifted run, playing the Texans, Bears and Vikings over the last three weeks. Meanwhile the Chargers have had to play the Chiefs and Raiders, two very talented, divisional rivals.
LA has still managed to overcome those massive tests and it is thanks to their defense. Brandon Staley has made big waves in his first season as head coach, bringing over a defensive scheme that he used as the Rams’ defensive coordinator. The Chargers just faced a Las Vegas side that was lighting everybody up and restricted them to 51 total yards and no points in the first half on Monday Night. Heading into the game, Derek Carr had been averaging over 400 passing yards but only managed 196 against the Chargers. He got sacked four times and now the Chargers face a Cleveland offense that has some Baker Mayfield issues.
While the Browns are 3-1 and averaging 25 points per game, Mayfield has managed just two touchdowns and two interceptions this season. The two touchdowns is woeful, being the least out of all quarterbacks who have started every game this season and even ranking lower than Trey Lance, who has thrown just 19 pass attempts, and Tyrod Taylor, who only played in 1.5 games before getting injured.
The flip-side of that of course is that Cleveland’s rushing game is the best in the league and that has been LA’s one weakness this season. The Chargers haven’t been able to stop the run and that is all Cleveland wants to do, meaning they can control time of possession and wear LA into the ground. Add in the fact that Cleveland’s defense ranks third for passing yards allowed, third for rushing yards allowed and the Chargers best weapon, Austin Ekeler, didn’t finish the game on Monday after limping off, the Browns could make a play at this game.
Ultimately, the Chargers have faced better teams and seemed better equipped to deal with this matchup, but are on a short week and this is the toughest defense they will have faced to date. The same can be said about Cleveland though, given they haven’t faced anything like the Chargers’ defensive front, making my best bet for this game the under.
Tim’s NFL Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)
Mike Su
This is going to be must-watch football as Baker and the boys head to the West Coast to play the ascending Chargers. This Chargers team defeated the Raiders in easy fashion and the Chiefs 2 weeks ago in a spectacular upset. The Chargers now look to continue this hot form against the Browns, who are on a 3 game winning streak themselves.
The Browns have been my favourite team on paper and should dominate the Chargers on both sides of the ball. However, the Chargers play so much better than their roster suggests and this is in part due to gutsy coaching which saw the Chargers go for a touchdown late to take the lead rather than a field goal.
Despite their bevvy of weapons in the air attack like Odell, Jarvis Landry, who is currently on the IL, and David Njoku, the Browns are unequivocally a ground and pound team. The running game is the heart of this team and I expect the Browns to use the run heavily in this game. In the Charger’s lone loss this season against the Cowboys, the Cowboys used the run heavily to exploit the Chargers defense with Zeke and Tony Pollard. The Browns, who possess a similar offensive line and better running backs, will likely use this strategy to burn the clock and gain yardage, while using the play action pass to generate the occasional surprise big play. The Browns will be in control all game.
Mike’s NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns (+108)
Tony Battalio
Super Bowl Super Browns is something that is being echoed all around Northeast Ohio and the Greater Cleveland Metro Area. For the first time in many many years, their beloved Browns are 3-1 and looking like a threat in not only the AFC North but also in the greater landscape of the AFC and NFL as a whole. Expect a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in this one as Baker Mayfield has struggled in recent outings and will be looking to get back to proper form. On the other side of the coin, we have the electric Justin Herbert and his Chargers looking to continue to prove to the city of LA why they belong.
The Browns have given up just 13 points combined over the past two games but they faced less than impressive offensive teams, so it will be nice to see a tough test for this Cleveland defense. However, the Chargers have done something the Browns have not and that’s find a way to beat the mighty Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, giving them the edge in the early stages of the season.
Ultimately, I expect a heavy dose of the run game and some great moments in this hard hitting showcase game of the week so I love the Browns getting 1.5 points here, even on the road.
Tony’s NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns +1.5 (-105)
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals – 4.25pm EDT
The undefeated Arizona Cardinals return home after two games on the road and host a San Francisco 49ers side that has dropped two straight games and are sweating on the health of Jimmy Garoppolo for this clash. Arizona’s offense has been absolutely incredible while the 49ers haven’t been able to get healthy through the first month of football
Tim Newton
How many points are you willing to lay with the Cardinals? The spread is currently 5.5 points and given what they have been able to do on both sides of the ball this season, that number looks small. The 49ers are coming off a seven point loss to the Seahawks and Arizona is definitely playing better than Seattle this season.
The Cardinals being the last remaining undefeated team is even more impressive when you consider three of their four games have been on the road and they have been able to put up 400+ yards and 30+ points on offense in all four weeks. That is including their matchup with the Rams, in LA, last weekend, against a defense that has ranked first for the last few years. Kyler Murray is now +450 favorite for the MVP, according to FanDuel, ranking third for total yards, second for yards per attempts and has 12 total touchdowns for the season, nine in the air and three on the ground.
Given the 49ers just struggled to contain a Seattle side that had dropped two straight games, how will they go against the most dynamic offense in the league this season? Especially when they may be stuck on the field for most of the game, given Jimmy Garoppolo is under an injury cloud, leaving Trey Lance to control the offense. That isn’t a slight on Lance, as he has been impressive in his limited action this season, throwing three touchdowns and no picks, while rushing for another touchdown on just 11 total attempts. However, he did only complete 50% of his passes last week against a Seattle defense that ranks last for yards allowed per game and 28th for passing yards allowed per game.
While the Cardinals could hit a flat spot after such a big game last weekend, given it was Murray’s first career win over the Rams, but they are too good on both sides of the ball to slip up here.
Tim’s NFL Pick: Arizona Cardinals -5.5 (-110)
The Arizona Cardinals are 4-0, & in first place in the NFC West
The 49ers are coming off 2 straight losses & currently sit in last place in the NFC West
Based on the laws of physics within this division, the 49ers will win this game
Don’t even try to refute this, it’s science
— Jordan Elliott (@splash_cousin) October 6, 2021
Mike Su
The Cardinals are one of my favourite teams in the league and they showed us why they were so hyped up this offseason. The big win against the Rams showed the football world who is really the boss. The Cardinals will now play their division rival, the 49ers in a game that will likely be a turning point for the 49ers. The Cardinals offense, led by my 2nd favourite quarterback Kyler Murray, has been explosive scoring over 31 points in all 4 games. This should continue against a 49ers team that has been surprisingly bad on defense this season, allowing the Lions, Packers and Seahawks to score 28 or more.
The Cardinals will abuse the 49ers secondary with their wide array of weapons in the receiving game. I expect DeAndre Hopkins to have a huge game. To make matters worse, the 49ers have a bunch of key injuries on their defense. Even if those guys do play, they won’t be 100%. On the other side of the ball the Cardinals also look solid. They held the Rams’ explosive offense to just 20 points and at the beginning of the season held the Titans’ top 5 offense to just 13 points.
I have to go with the Cardinals here to win in a high scoring matchup. Because the odds aren’t that great for the win itself, I’m taking the overs here.
Mike’s NFL Pick: Over 50.5 (-104)
Tony Battalio
MVP favorite Kyler Murray takes his undefeated Cardinals to battle against division rival San Francisco. Last week the Cardinals knocked off fellow unbeaten, at the time, Los Angeles (Rams), while San Francisco lost to Seattle in a nailbiter. This was after making the move to put Trey Lance at QB, with Jimmy G going down with an injury. Lance instantly made an impact, throwing 2TDs in in the second half and now he looks poised to make his first career NFL start this Sunday against one of the most elite teams in the whole league. Only time will tell if he’s truly ready.
Now while both these teams feature fast paced electric offenses they both also feature questionable defenses and for that reason it might be a great idea to take a look at betting the over in this one, despite the 49ers potentially starting a rookie. This matchup is set to be a good one if Lance is truly able to play at the top level. Rookie vs MVP favorite, Proven v Undefeated-Up-And-Comers – this has all the signs pointing to an upset in some people’s mind but at the end of the day I think the Cardinals take this one, but for my pick I’m going with the over.
Tony’s NFL Pick: Over 50.5 (-104)
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys – 4.25PM EDT
The New York Giants are coming off their first win of the season but now run into the red-hot Dallas Cowboys, who are 2-0 at home this season. These NFC East rivals always have incredible battles but there seems to be a massive gulf in talent, leadership and output between the two sides so far this season.
Tim Newton
While the Giants managed to get the job done in overtime last week, getting their first win of the season over the Saints, they face a completely different beast in this clash. The Cowboys seem to be doing everything right this season and are unlucky not to be 4-0. They played better than the Bucs in Week 1 and then have won three games since then, beating the Chargers who have beaten the Chiefs and Raiders since. That is a pretty good formline and when you add in the fact that Dallas is doing it on both sides of the ball, this one could get ugly.
Outside of his rookie season, where he went 0-2, Dak Prescott is 7-0 against the Giants with an average winning margin of 12 points over that stretch. He has also thrown 16 touchdowns compared to just two picks over those seven wins and has the best support he has ever had in his career, both on offense and on defense. Dallas ranks third for total yards per game and fourth for points per game, buoyed by Ezekiel Elliot and the backfield, which ranks second in the league. They also just put up 36 points on a very talented Carolina defense, indicating how well they are going.
Defensively, between Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons, who are in their second and first years respectively, the Cowboys have two studs that have helped turn things around. Diggs has five interceptions through the first four games while Parsons has the ability, as a linebacker, to move all around the defense and look comfortable doing so at the top level.
They now face a New York side that has struggled to put consistent, winning football together and only just secured their first win despite having a relatively easy schedule through the first month. Daniel Jones may rank seventh for passing yards but has just four touchdowns through the first four games and has been sacked 11 times so far this season. Given the Cowboys are much better on defense and rank equal first for turnover differential this season, sitting at +7 through four games, the Giants may not know what has hit them.
Tim’s NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys -7 (-110)
Mike Su
The Cowboys battle their division rivals, the Giants, in a game that is relatively predictable. The Giants have been bad for the last few years and not much has changed. Although the Giants did score a win against the Saints last week, they lost easy games to the WFT and Falcons before that. I honestly expected better from this Giants team.
The Cowboys on the other hand have been great this season with their sole loss being against the defending champions, Tampa Bay. The Cowboys offense has been versatile and dominant, dropping 36 against the Panthers’ good defense and 41 against the Eagles. Defensively the Cowboys have been decent as well. This is definitely one of the better Cowboys defenses I have seen recently and they have done well stopping a wide range of offensive schemes.
I think in this game, the Cowboys will pull out to an early lead and then cruise home by running the ball with their good running back duo. I think the bookies are being generous giving the Cowboys a -7 spread, especially since they’ll be playing at home. I have to take the Cowboys line here.
Mike’s NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys -7 (-110)
Tony Battalio
One year ago, absolutely nobody would’ve guessed that Dak Prescott would return from his gruesome injury and return to form while leading the Dallas Cowboys to a 3-1 start, being seconds off being 4-0. On the other hand, with a top 3 running back like Saquon Barkley, not many thought the New York Giants would be a complete disappointment ever since he was drafted #2 back in 2018.
This game will be your typical NFC East rivalry game and also a game that could come to define the division this year. A Dallas win could further separate them from the pack while a New York win could get them back on the right track. Last week both teams pulled off thrilling wins vs two NFC South teams, the Cowboys beat Sam Darnold’s Panthers while the Giants beat the Saints in overtime for their first win of the 2021 season. This is a Dallas home game and they are spotting seven points to the Giants. I expect a heavy dose of Zeke Elliott and Barkley in this game, that will likely end up in the high 20s or mid to low 30s. I’m taking the Cowboys in a hard hitting match up.
Tony’s NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys -7 (-110)
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs – 8.20pm EDT
Will Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills get their revenge from their AFC Championship defeat last season? While there is bigger fish to fry than a Week 5 matchup, this game will have meaning as the Kansas City Chiefs have struggled through the first part of the season and will want to make a statement against their AFC rivals.
Tim Newton
Well, what a matchup this is. It is safe to say that the Chiefs have had their fair share of public scrutiny through the first month of the season but it may have prepared them for this matchup with the Bills. While Buffalo are 3-1, compared to the Chiefs being 2-2, the difference in strength of schedule has been insane. Buffalo currently has the best defense in the league but has faced the Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers, a Jacoby Brissett-led Dolphins, a Taylor Heinicke-led Washington and a Davis Mills-led Texans.
Meanwhile the Chiefs have played the Browns, Ravens and Chargers, who are all 3-1 this season, and the Eagles in Philadelphia. Kansas City hasn’t looked like their usual-selves but when looking deeper, they have only punted once in the last two weeks and six times all season, proving that their offense is still rolling. Will that last against a Buffalo defense that ranks first for yards and points allowed per game? Given the Bills haven’t faced an offense even close to what Kansas City has to offer, it wouldn’t be surprising.
When looking at the other side of the ball, Josh Allen and the Bills come up against a Chiefs defense that is struggling massively, ranking second last for yards allowed per game and are giving up over three points per drive. That number may sound like it isn’t much, but there has only been one other team in the league over the last 20 years that has given up 3+ points per drive and that was the tanking 2019 Dolphins. Given the Bills have scored 35+ in their last three and 40+ in their last two, surely they should have a field day against Kansas City, especially given their backfield is top five in the league and Kansas City’s run defense is bottom three.
All the signs lead to the Bills and because of that, the Chiefs are only laying a field goal, at home. I’m backing the Chiefs to silence the haters, get back to their best football and show that they are still the top dogs in the AFC.
Tim’s NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-105)
“The Chiefs have a better offense than they’ve ever had in the Patrick Mahomes era, they’ve played the toughest schedule of anyone in football, and they’re about to dog walk the Bills.”
— @getnickwright breaks down his NFL Tiers entering Week 5: pic.twitter.com/7TMDj1UlgD
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) October 6, 2021
Mike Su
In the most important game of the weekend in the AFC, the Chiefs try to bounce back from a shock loss to the Chargers against Buffalo. Just last season, these two teams met in the AFC Championship game where the Chiefs embarrassed the hopeful Bills. The Chiefs are now looking a lot more human with a 2-2 record. This is the worst regular season start of Mahomes’ career. Mahomes will be looking to try and bounce back and beat this formidable team.
After losing their first game, the Bills have looked a lot better with 3 wins in a row including 2 shutout wins where they destroyed the Texans and Dolphins. This is a defense that looks a lot better than last year and may give Mahomes some problems. It seems like defenses are keying into Mahomes, after the Buccaneers provided a blueprint in the Super Bowl of how to beat them. The only kicker for me is that the Bills have faced a very easy schedule, while the Chiefs have faced, in my opinion, one of the toughest slates thus far. I think this game will be closer than people think, as the Chiefs will put up a good fight against the Bills. Ultimately, I have to go with the Chiefs to win this and I have to take the Chiefs line. I would rather trust my money with Mahomes than Josh Allen.
Mike’s NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-105)
Tony Battalio
The Buffalo Bills are coming off a huge win over the Houston Texans and are looking to circle the wagons again in a game that could easily be a preview of the 2021 AFC Championship Game. As for the Kansas City Chiefs they managed to bounce back against the Eagles last week, following consecutive losses to the Ravens and Chargers.
Looking at the matchup, it doesn’t get any better than this – Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes, Bills vs Chiefs , Super Bowl contender vs Super Bowl contender. It has every aspect of what we love about the game – electrifying quarterbacks, hard hitting running backs and superstar wide receivers, in the form of Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs. Sunday Night Football and a national audience will see what may very well be the game of the year in the National Football League.
Truth be told, with Andy Reid’s health issues and the Kansas City Chiefs not looking like their normal selves early on in the season, I firmly believe the Bills will pull off the upset inside of Arrowhead Stadium Sunday night.
Tony’s NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills +3 (-115)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.
