We are well and truly into the second half of the season, and the playoff picture is beginning to take shape! Our NFL picks have found the five best games from Week 10’s action and our experts have provided their analysis and best bets for each of those games!
The Titans have established themselves as the team to beat, while some big name teams suffered shock defeats last week and will be looking to bounce back. We also see the return of Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, facing off against each other in Lambeau Field. However, the highlight of the weekend is the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders going to battle in Allegiant Stadium for top place in the AFC West!
Knowing this, we have provided our NFL picks for the five best contests on Week 10’s schedule, including a full game analysis, and our experts’ best bets!
New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans – 1pm ET
The hottest team in football, the Tennessee Titans, put their league-leading 5-game winning streak on the line when they host the bruised and battered New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon. Both sides are missing key players, Derrick Henry for the Titans and Jameis Winston for the Saints, but how will both teams adjust given they have already had a game without their stars?
Tim Newton
I’m very intrigued to see how this one pans out as you’d expect the Titans to have a flat week after such a big, important win in LA last Sunday. However, they have won five straight games and are 6-0 against sides that made the playoffs last season, which the Saints are one of. That doesn’t bode well for New Orleans, especially when considering they are using a back-up quarterback, Trevor Siemian. Despite the loss of Henry, Tennessee beat a very good side last week, the Rams, while New Orleans lost Jameis Winston and couldn’t beat a side that hasn’t made the playoffs in the last three seasons, the Falcons.
To be fair to Siemian, he threw for 249 yards, two touchdowns and no picks, but that sort of effort isn’t going to cut it – especially on the road against an improved defense. Sean Payton will surely have some scheme to get at Ryan Tannehill, who is having a sub-par year so far, but the Titans showed that their defense is good enough to keep them afloat without Henry in the lineup.
Going up against a veteran QB, Matt Stafford, the Titans got two takeaways and it helped set the game up for them, which they won comfortably. Imagine how they are going to go against Trevor Siemian and an underperforming Saints’ offense this weekend.
Tim’s NFL Pick: Tennessee Titans (-152)
Top 10 Titans Plays at Midseason | 2021 Season pic.twitter.com/2aQ92Ea7ty
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) November 11, 2021
Mike Su
The Titans lost Derrick Henry but still beat the Rams in a great defensive effort. The Titans didn’t skip a beat as they replaced Henry with Adrian Peterson and used a committee of running backs to somewhat fill the void. This proved to be enough to beat many people’s Super Bowl favourites in the LA Rams. Now the Titans will play the directionless Saints who have looked extremely erratic.
The Saints lost to the Falcons last week in a game they probably should have won. The Falcons generated just 34 rushing yards and still beat the Saints. The Saints were still able to generate offense but should’ve beaten a Falcons team that will likely end up with a top 10 pick. The Saints are similar to the Titans in the sense that they have shown they can beat anyone but also lose to anyone as they beat the Buccaneers just 2 weeks ago.
Now the Saints and Titans meet in Tennessee in a game that I think will be extremely pass heavy for the Titans offense and run heavy for the Saints Offense. I think the Titans get off to a hot start behind the in-form Ryan Tannehill and gain a lead the Saints won’t be able to overcome.
Mike’s NFL Pick: Tennessee Titans (-152)
Tony Battalio
Even without superstar running back Derrick Henry the Tennessee Titans still found a way to beat one of the best teams in the National Football League last weekend. While no one can replace the production that Henry provides, the Titans used several running backs who totaled only 69 yards but found the endzone twice in the 28-16 victory. It was all defense for the Tennessee Titans as they forced two huge interceptions by Mathew Stafford on back to back plays, with the second one resulting in a pick six. With the victory the Titans improved to 7-2 on the year and strengthened their lead in the AFC South.
The New Orleans Saints followed up a huge win against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Vikings by losing to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday by a score of 27-25. That has been the story for the Saints all year as they can not seem to hold onto any kind of momentum. As they have been on hot and cold streaks week in and week out. Last week’s disappointing loss drops them to 5-3 on the season and they will be looking for a win in this one to keep pace with Tampa Bay in the NFC South.
As for the result of this game, I expect the Tennessee Titans to pick up another huge win and further separate themselves from a weak AFC South Division that features only 1 team above .500 at the moment, that team being the Titans themselves. While New Orleans does have the potential for an upset, I think last week’s loss will weigh on their minds heavily and stop them from picking up a victory in this game.
Tony’s NFL Pick: Tennessee Titans (-152)
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots – 1pm ET
The New England Patriots host the Cleveland Browns in an interesting clash between two AFC Playoff hopefuls. The Patriots are in the midst of a three-game winning streak, the third-longest in the league, while the Browns are moving on from OBJ and coming in off a big divisional win over the Bengals.
Tim Newton
While Cleveland’s win was impressive, I’m siding with the Patriots to continue their climb up the AFC standings. While Cleveland has a marginally better total defense, the Patriots allow fewer points than the Browns and given Cleveland has, at times, found it hard to score, I feel like New England has the edge.
Especially with Kareem Hunt still not returning from injury and Nick Chubb under COVID-19 protocols. He does have a chance to clear them before the game this week, but there is also a chance he doesn’t, meaning Cleveland only has D’Ernest Johnson in the backfield. Cleveland’s strength is their running game, which ranks second in the league, but without their two main backs, this may put too much pressure and responsibility on the shoulders of Baker Mayfield, which isn’t a good thing for the Browns.
On the other hand, Mac Jones looks cool, calm and collected under center now, warming into his role as the season goes on. Over their three-game winning streak, Jones has averaged 221 yards per game while throwing three touchdowns and just one pick.
Admittedly, he is clearly still a rookie and has passages where he looks like he is still learning and developing, which isn’t a good sign against Cleveland’s scary defense, which has kept opponents under 20 points in each of their last three games. However, a big part of that is Cleveland being able to control the clock, which they won’t be able to do with Hunt and Chubb on the sidelines. This opens up the door for New England, inside Gillette Stadium, to pull off the win and make their claim as a genuine AFC Wild Card team.
Tim’s NFL Pick: New England Patriots (-130)
Mike Su
The Browns head into New England after a big win against the Bengals. The Browns are just 1.5 games behind the Ravens for the AFC North crown and need a win against the Patriots. Against the Bengals, Cleveland looked insanely good on both offense and defense. This was likely as a result of the return of Nick Chubb who was an absolute workhorse for the Browns as well as the departure of Odell Beckham Jr. The Browns should get even better on offense this week as they shift to a more balanced attack.
On the other hand the Patriots are coming off a dominating win against the Panthers where their defense had a field day against Sam Darnold. The Patriots defense looks ferocious right now as they caused 2 fumbles and 3 interceptions. They also have a strong running game, finishing with 151 yards on the ground against the Panthers. The Patriots will need the running game to step up to have any chance of beating the Browns who are still one of my favourites to get to the Super Bowl in the AFC. I think the Browns are just too good on defense for the Patriots to move the ball and will be able to score enough points on offense to beat the Patriots in a low scoring affair.
Mike’s NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns (+106)
Tony Battalio
The Cleveland Browns got an absolutely huge victory last week on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals. It felt like a must win game for a Browns team that has been surrounded by drama in recent weeks. Baker Mayfield played well enough to get the job done and with help from superstar running back Nick Chubb and Denzel Ward’s 99 yard interception return touchdown the Browns marched to a 41-16 victory. Now they will hit the road again to Foxborough to play the New England Patriots in another game that feels like a must win. However they may be short handed as 3 of their running backs, including Nick Chubb have been placed in COVID-19 protocol and as of this writing will miss Sunday’s game.
As for the New England Patriots they come into this game off of a huge win against the Carolina Panthers by a score of 24-6. New England now sits at 5-4 and will be looking to remain in the playoff hunt with a huge win at home on Sunday against a possibly depleted Browns team. Mac Jones is starting to come into his own at the quarterback position after throwing for 139 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win.
This game could realistically go either way, especially with the Cleveland Browns potential situation at the running back position. However I still think Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns have all the tools to get the job done with or without Nick Chubb. The safer bet in this game is the Browns Moneyline.
Tony’s NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns (+106)
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys – 1pm ET
We have an NFC showdown between explosive quarterbacks as the Dallas Cowboys look to get back on track against the Atlanta Falcons this weekend. Dallas is coming off a disastrous loss to the Broncos last week while Younghoe Koo saved the day for Atlanta yet again, as the Falcons beat the Saints as time expired.
Tim Newton
Can Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott be excused for last week’s performance? Clearly Prescott wasn’t 100% healthy, given he had one of his worst games as a pro, but is he back to full strength this week? I certainly am happy to forgive and forget, as the Cowboys have proven this season that they are a forced to be reckoned with.
Yes, Matt Ryan won offensive player of the week accolades in Week 9 thanks to season highs of 343 yards and a 76.7% completion rate, while throwing two touchdowns and no picks, but can he do that again against a revamped Dallas defense that will be looking to bounce back from a poor performance?
Add in the fact that Dallas has a two-pronged attack in the backfield, headed by Ezekiel Elliot, and the Falcons are a below average run defense. If Zeke and Tony Pollard can break loss and gain yards on the ground, this will allow Prescott to find his rhythm, not be pressured and hit the likes of Ceedee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Dalton Shultz down the field. Dallas has one of the best offenses in the league because it is so balanced, and I think the Falcons are the perfect team for the Cowboys to take advantage of. There is no value in backing them straight up and laying nine points coming off a loss like that is scary, so I’m going to buy some points and back the Cowboys to win and cover, just a smaller spread than the one on offer.
Tim’s NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys -4.5 (-200)
Koo for the WIN‼️
📺: FOX | @YounghoeKoo pic.twitter.com/9XrPNbbTgN
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 7, 2021
Mike Su
The Cowboys were absolutely embarrassed last week by the Broncos. The Cowboys didn’t score until garbage time and were down 27-0 at one point. This is not the team and not the offene that went on a hot run during the earlier part of the season. This did seem like an anomaly and the Cowboys should bounce back against the Falcons and their weak defensive unit.
The Falcons come off a good win against their division rivals the New Orleans Saints where they won with a game-winning field goal by Younghoe Koo. They looked great in the passing game as Matt Ryan had 343 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions. Patterson was a key bright spot on offense and had 126 yards receiving. This Falcons unit will be playing a Cowboys team that allowed 27 unanswered points to a horrible Broncos offense, so they will likely be able to generate some points.
I think this will be a high scoring affair as the Falcons are in form offensively and the Cowboys look to bounce back from their worst offensive game all year.
Mike’s NFL Pick: Over 55 (-110)
Tony Battalio
The Dallas Cowboys were beaten last week by a bad Denver Broncos team in a game that wasn’t even close until a couple of garbage time touchdowns by Dallas. In fact they found themselves down 27-0 at one point, and this is a game that they will want to forget as soon as possible. Now they have a chance to bounce back against an equally as bad Atlanta Falcons team that will be coming off a shocking win against the New Orleans Saints. Dallas has looked like a potential super bowl contender at times this season but if last week is any indication and not just a fluke they have a long way to go before they can expect to win a championship. Dallas comes into this game at 6-2, while Atlanta enters at 4-4 as both teams will be looking to pick up a huge victory in this NFC battle as the season heads towards the second half.
As for the result of this game, I think the Dallas Cowboys will bounce back and beat Atlanta. I look for an impressive performance by Zeke Elliott to lead Dallas to victory. Atlanta is a decent enough team to pull out a win here so I do not expect Dallas to cover the spread. So the safer bet in this one is the Dallas Cowboys Moneyline.
Tony’s NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-405)
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers – 4:25pm ET
Two returning QBs face off as Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks head to Lambeau to face Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. While the Packers have a four-game lead over their division and are a lock for the postseason, the Seahawks have struggled this year, sitting at just 3-5 and have an uphill battle to sneak into a Wild Card slot.
Tim Newton
Pretty simple pick this week. The Packers should wipe the floor with the Seahawks in this one. Yes, Russell Wilson is obviously a big inclusion for Seattle and Pete Carroll off a bye is a dangerous prospect, but their secondary is disastrous and they are facing one of the best, if not the best QB/WR combo in the league.
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams have such a great synergy, and that isn’t even accounting for guys like Aaron Jones out of the back-field, Marquez Valdez-Scantling on the deep balls and the reliable Randell Cobb causing mischief as well. This Green Bay offense is on a completely different level to nearly any offense in the league, with Rodgers at the helm, and the Seahawks biggest weakness is their pass defense.
Add in the fact that the Packers defense has been on fire lately, despite missing key pieces. They will still be without Zaire Alexander for this clash, but given Green Bay has the fifth best total defense, sixth best scoring defense and seventh best passing defense, this Seattle team may have wanted a different opponent for Wilson’s first game back in the fold, coming off a fractured finger. I’ll be honest, I do love Wilson and the Seahawks, but I am really worried about how this one will turn out.
Tim’s NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers (-184)
Mike Su
The Seahawks come off their bye week to play the Aaron Rodger-less Packers. The Seahawks have been hit or miss all season and a tough team to bet on. However the Packers don’t have the reigning MVP on their offense due to COVID.
The Packers have historically been garbage without Rodgers as the lack of talent on offense is highlighted by his absence. Rodgers makes the receivers look better than they actually are, as well as taking pressure off of the running game. The Packers need Jordan Love to shine in this game to ensure victory. This game will also be a good measure for Love who hasn’t played any meaningful minutes in the NFL despite being a first round pick.
The quarterback situation doesn’t get better for the Seahawks who will be coming off rest but are still without their franchise quarterback Russell Wilson. The bright side for the Seahawks is that they have looked decent with Geno Smith at quarterback, beating the Jaguars 31-7 2 weeks ago. The Seahawks should only improve as Smith gets more reps with the starters.
This game is a toss up but I do think the Seahawks are undervalued here so I am taking the Seahawks line as I think Geno Smith can make it close.
Mike’s NFL Pick: Seattle Seahawks +3.5 (-115)
Tony Battalio
Seattle is coming in fresh off a bye week and may be meeting the Green Bay Packers at the perfect time. They have the perfect opportunity to steal a victory as Green Bay is likely to be without quarterback Aaron Rodgers for a second straight game. Jordan Love will have to make a massive improvement from his first NFL start last week if he wants to lead Green Bay to victory and keep their stronghold on the NFC North alive. As for the Seattle Seahawks they are also still without star quarterback Russell Wilson as Geno Smith will likely make another start this week. Seattle comes into this one at 3-5 as every win from now until Wilson’s return is much needed to keep pace in a tough NFC West Division that features two of the NFLs best teams in Arizona and Los Angeles. Meanwhile Green Bay enters this one after suffering their first loss since week 1 in last week’s defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs that featured very little offense in a game that ended 13-7.
As for the result of this game I think Jordan Love is just way too over his head and Green Bay will continue to struggle with Aaron Rodgers under center. Genò Smith has enough experience to lead the Seattle Seahawks to another victory in this game. I think the safer bet here is the Seattle Seahawks Moneyline.
Tony’s NFL Pick: Seattle Seahawks (+154)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders – 8:20pm ET
The game of the weekend sees the Las Vegas Raiders host the Kansas City Chiefs in a battle for the AFC West. Both sides have won two of their last three games and with half a game between them in the standings, it could be anyone’s game.
Tim Newton
This is a very tricky spot for the Chiefs. They have won two straight games and given the standings and the way the season has gone so far, this could be one of the most important regular season games of Patrick Mahomes’ career. Despite picking up the win over an Aaron Rodger-less Packers last week, it was arguably the worst game Mahomes has played in the NFL. It was the fewest passing yards of his career, he went 0/5 on deep ball throws and they were held scoreless in the second half for the first time since he took over the starting roll.
They now face a Las Vegas side that leads the league in quarterback pressures on 1st and 2nd downs. They are also doing this by blitzing the least on 1st and 2nd down, meaning they get to the quarterback but still have good coverage. Given this has been Mahomes’ most shaky month and a bit of football, that isn’t a good sign.
On the other side of the ball, Las Vegas leads the league in plays of 20+ yards and 40+ yards, with Derek Carr coming into his own as the leader and face of the franchise this season. Comparing that to Kansas City, who have the likes of Mahomes, Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce, they rank 28th for plays of 20+ yards and last for plays of 40+ yards. That means that Las Vegas will be able to move the chains quickly and easily, while the Chiefs will have to work for every inch. Another key factor is that the Raiders were the only team to beat Mahomes in the regular season last year and in their other game, the Chiefs needed a touchdown as time expired to win. That shows that the Raiders have their number and I’m happy to buy some points to get this spread outside of a field goal and it may be one of my biggest plays for the weekend.
Tim’s NFL Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 (-140)
One of the best rivalries in the NFL takes center stage with a shot at first place in the AFC West on the line. pic.twitter.com/GW65YkJoMf
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 11, 2021
Mike Su
The Chiefs continue to look horrible despite beating the Aaron Rodger-less Packers last week. However, the Raiders lost to the Giants last week and have been in a constant state of turmoil all season. The Giants are unequivocally one of the worst teams in the NFL and the Raiders couldn’t beat them. The only positive is that the Chiefs played the Giants 2 weeks ago and could barely put them away either. Neither team looks particularly good here.
The Raiders have lost their 2nd best receiver due to a horrible off field situation, causing even more change around the Raiders offense. Derek Carr has continued to put on a brave face but losing your number 2 receiver and your play calling head coach unexpectedly in the middle of the season is a death blow to many quarterbacks.
Mahomes continues to play poorly throwing 1 touchdown and 1 interception last week. The former MVP has not been close to his old form. He may be able to beat a Raiders team dipped in controversy but his form tells me his will be a lot closer than people think. However, the Chiefs should win by a field goal here so I’m taking the line.
Mike’s NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-110)
Tony Battalio
Even after last week’s victory the Kansas City Chiefs still do not look like the same team that has played in two straight super bowls and won one of them. Patrick Mahomes had another disappointing performance by his standards and star wideout Tyreek Hill was virtually nonexistent with only 4 receptions for 37 yards and no touchdowns. Kansas City comes into this game with a record of 5-4 and will be looking for a huge inter-division victory as they look to break a tie with the Denver Broncos for last place in the AFC West. As for the Oakland Raiders they come into this game off of a devastating loss to the New York Giants. With that loss they dropped to 5-3 on the year and found themselves tied for first in the AFC West with the Los Angeles Chargers so this game has huge division implications.
This game to me feels like the moment the Kansas City Chiefs breakout from their mediocre season and get hot as we match towards the back half of the NFL season. With Kansas City being on the road it makes this one feel almost like a must win game to keep pace within the division and AFC playoff race. I look for this game to come down to a Harrison Butker field goal and for the Kansas City Chiefs to cover the 2.5 point spread.
Tony’s NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-110)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.
