Free NFL Picks Today: Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos 1/1/23

Free NFL Picks Today: Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos 1/1/23
Sun 1st January 2023

The Denver Broncos (4-11, 1-7 Away) and their stifling passing defense travel to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (12-3, 6-1 Home) and their explosive aerial offense at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.

The Chiefs are 12.5-point favorites, and the total is 45. Denver is coming off a deflating 51-14 loss against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium last Sunday. Russell Wilson was 15 of 27 for 214 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions.

Latavius Murray ran eight times for 34 yards. Jerry Jeudy was targeted 10 times, catching six passes for 117 yards. Kansas City won for the third straight game last Saturday, beating the Seattle Seahawks 24-10 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Patrick Mahomes threw for 224 yards and two touchdowns. Isiah Pacheco carried 14 times for 58 yards and added one catch for 32 yards. Travis Kelce was targeted eight times, hauling in six receptions for 113 yards.


The Chiefs won the first meeting between the teams this season, a 34-28 victory in December, their 11th straight win against Denver. Patrick Mahomes threw three touchdowns for Kansas City, as Jerick McKinnon scored twice. Russell Wilson tossed three touchdowns for Denver, as Jerry Jeudy found the end zone three times.


The Broncos are averaging 15.5 points per game for the season, worst in the NFL, and they are facing a Chiefs defense that has surrendered 22.1 PPG (16th). Meanwhile, Kansas City has scored 29.2 points a game this season, second in the league, and Denver is allowing 20.3 PPG (7th).

The Broncos rank 19th in the league in passing yards per game (233.5) and 23rd in rushing (107.5), while the Chiefs are 22nd in passing yards allowed per game (246.9) and eighth against the run (107.1). Kansas City has been the league’s top passing team, averaging 314.7 passing yards per game, while ranking 17th in rushing yards (117.1).

Denver’s defense has been equally impressive through the air, as the Broncos are 5th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (212.9). Against the run, the Broncos are 16th (117.4). Denver is averaging 2.1 trips to the red zone a game this season, zeroth lowest in the NFL, finding the end zone 52% of the time (23rd).

The Broncos will be looking to improve on those numbers against the league’s weakest red zone defense, as the Chiefs have allowed opponents to score on 68% of red zone trips.

Kansas City ranks as one of the most productive red zone offenses in the league, moving inside the 20-yard-line 4.1 times per game (2nd) and scoring a touchdown on 68% of those possessions (5th). Denver has been tough to beat when defending their own red zone, holding opponents to a conversion percentage of only 45% (2nd).


Through 13 games, Russell Wilson has thrown for 12 touchdowns (9 INT) and 232.2 yards per game to lead Denver in passing. In eight away games this season, he has eight TDs (5 INT) and an average of 231.0 yards passing. Latavius Murray leads the team in rushing with an average of 54.6 yards a game over 11 games. He has four touchdowns on the ground.

Jerry Jeudy is the Broncos’ leading receiver with 60.0 yards a game and six TDs. Patrick Mahomes has 37 passing touchdowns (11 INT) with 314.7 yards per game through 15 games to lead Kansas City. In seven home games this season, he has thrown for 16 TDs (5 INT) and an average of 312.3 yards.

Isiah Pacheco has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 49.0 yards a game through 15 games. He has three touchdowns.

Travis Kelce has been the primary target in the Chiefs’ aerial attack. He has 12 touchdowns and an 83.8 yard per game average through 15 appearances. Travis Kelce is averaging 9.0 targets per game (6.5 receptions).


Kansas City has won four in a row at home this season.

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

KC Chiefs -12.5 (-110)

Want up to a $1K risk free bet for this pick?
Claim with betmgm image today!

If you need more news, information and predictions, head over to our NFL hub page for all your football needs!

*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

SportsTips covers all the latest betting, odds, picks & predictions news when it comes to major American sports like NFL, NBA, MLB & NHL. If you want to stay up to date with the latest information, SportsTips has you covered!