Free NFL Picks Today: San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs 10/23/22

Free NFL Picks Today: San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs 10/23/22
Sun 23rd October 2022

The San Francisco 49ers (3-3, 2-0 Home) play host to the Kansas City Chiefs (4-2, 2-1 Away) at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday for a matchup that pits suffocating defense against explosive offense. The Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites, and the total is 48.5.

Kansas City is coming off a 24-20 loss against the Buffalo Bills at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday. Patrick Mahomes was 25 of 40 for 338 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran nine times for 33 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster caught five passes for 113 yards and a touchdown.

San Francisco lost 28-14 to the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium last Sunday. Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 296 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Jeff Wilson Jr. carried seven times for 25 yards. Brandon Aiyuk scored twice. He was targeted 11 times, hauling in eight receptions for 83 yards.


The teams are meeting in the regular season for the first time since September 2018, a 38-27 win for the Chiefs.


The Chiefs are averaging 29.8 points per game for the season, best in the NFL, and they are facing a 49ers defense that has surrendered 14.8 PPG (2nd). Meanwhile, San Francisco has scored 20.3 points a game this season, 19th in the league, and Kansas City is allowing 24.8 PPG (25th).

The Chiefs rank as one of the league’s top teams in passing yards per game (289.3, 4th), while they are 20th in rushing yards (106.5). They will be matching strength against strength through the air, as the 49ers are third in the league in passing yards allowed per game (193.3). Against the run, San Francisco is second (87.5).

San Francisco is 22nd in the league in passing yards per game (224.5) and 12th in rushing (124.0). Kansas City’s defense will prove challenging on the ground, as the Chiefs are 4th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (90.5). Against the pass, the Chiefs are 28th (286.0).

Kansas City has found the end zone on 76% of red zone trips this season, second most in the NFL, averaging 4.2 trips a game (10th). San Francisco ranks as the one of the lowest volume red zone offenses in the league, moving inside the 20-yard-line just 2.8 times per game (29th) and scoring a touchdown on 59% of those possessions (14th). Kansas City has had difficulty defending their own red zone, allowing opponents to find the end zone 75% of the time (29th).


Through six games, Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 17 touchdowns (4 INT) and 289.3 yards per game to lead Kansas City in passing. In three away games this season, he has nine TDs (2 INT) and an average of 290.3 yards passing.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the team in rushing with an average of 42.7 yards a game over six games. He has two touchdowns on the ground. Travis Kelce is the Chiefs’ leading receiver with 75.8 yards a game and seven TDs. He is averaging 6.8 receptions on 8.7 targets per game.

Jimmy Garoppolo has seven passing touchdowns (3 INT) with 230.6 yards per game through five games to lead San Francisco. In two home games this season, he has thrown for two TDs and an average of 196.5 yards. Jeff Wilson Jr. has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 66.7 yards a game through six games.

He has two touchdowns. Deebo Samuel has been the primary target in the 49ers’ passing game. He has two touchdowns and a 57.5 yard per game average through six appearances. Deebo Samuel is averaging 7.8 targets per game (4.5 receptions).


San Francisco has yet to lose at home this season in two games.

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

KC Chiefs (-125)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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