Free NFL Picks Today: Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers 10/16/22

Free NFL Picks Today: Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers 10/16/22
Sun 16th October 2022

A matchup of strength against strength is set for Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, as the Atlanta Falcons (2-3, 1-1 Home) and their great rushing offense welcome the San Francisco 49ers (3-2, 1-2 Away) and their tremendous ground defense. The 49ers are five-point favorites, and the total is 44.5. San Francisco is coming off an impressive 37-15 win over the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium last Sunday. Jimmy Garoppolo was 18 of 30 for 253 yards and two touchdowns. Jeff Wilson Jr. ran 17 times for 120 yards and a touchdown. Brandon Aiyuk caught three passes for 58 yards. Atlanta lost 21-15 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium last Sunday. Marcus Mariota threw for 147 yards and a touchdown. He added 61 yards on the ground. Olamide Zaccheaus scored once. He caught two receptions for 39 yards.


The 49ers won the only meeting between the teams last season, a 31-13 victory in December. Jimmy Garoppolo tossed one touchdown for San Francisco, as Jeff Wilson Jr. added a rushing TD.


The 49ers are averaging 21.6 points per game for the season, 16th in the NFL, and they are facing a Falcons defense that has surrendered 24.4 PPG (21st). Meanwhile, Atlanta has scored 23.6 points a game this season, 10th in the league, and San Francisco is allowing 12.2 PPG (1st). The 49ers rank 25th in the league in passing yards per game (210.2) and eighth in rushing (138.8). Look for them to take advantage through the air, as the Falcons are 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (290.2). Against the run, Atlanta is 16th (114.8).Atlanta has been one of the league’s top rushing teams, averaging 164.6 yards per game (4th), while ranking 30th in passing yards (185.2). San Francisco’s defense has been equally impressive on the ground, as the 49ers are No. 1 in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (71.4). Against the pass, the 49ers are 6th (206.2).San Francisco is averaging 2.8 red zone trips a game this season, third lowest in the NFL, finding the end zone 57% of the time (15th).


Through four games, Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for five touchdowns (1 INT) and 214.2 yards per game to lead San Francisco in passing. In two away games this season, he has three TDs (1 INT) and an average of 232.0 yards passing. Jeff Wilson Jr. leads the team in rushing with an average of 75.0 yards a game over five games. He has two touchdowns on the ground. Deebo Samuel is the 49ers’ leading receiver with 53.2 yards a game and two TDs. He is averaging 4.0 receptions on 7.4 targets per game. Marcus Mariota has four passing touchdowns (4 INT) with 185.2 yards per game through five games to lead Atlanta. In two home games this season, he has thrown for 177.0 yards per game with no TDs and one interception. Cordarrelle Patterson has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 85.0 yards a game through four games. He has three touchdowns. Drake London has been a key target in the Falcons’ passing game. He has two touchdowns and a 53.2 yard per game average through five appearances. Drake London is averaging 7.8 targets per game (4.4 receptions).

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

San Francisco 49ers (-225)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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