Free NFL Picks Today: Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs 12/18/22

Free NFL Picks Today: Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs 12/18/22
Sun 18th December 2022

The Kansas City Chiefs (10-3, 5-2 Away) travel to face the Houston Texans (1-11-1, 0-5-1 Home), who will be hoping to end their losing streak, at NRG Stadium on Sunday. The Chiefs are 14-point favorites, and the total is 49.5.

Kansas City is coming off a 34-28 win over the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High last Sunday. Patrick Mahomes was 28 of 42 for 352 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Isiah Pacheco ran 13 times for 70 yards.

Jerick McKinnon was targeted nine times, catching seven passes for 112 yards and two touchdowns. Houston dropped an eighth straight game last Sunday, falling 27-23 to the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.

Davis Mills threw for 213 yards and an interception. Dameon Pierce carried 22 times for 78 yards and a touchdown. Chris Moore was targeted 11 times, hauling in 10 receptions for 124 yards.


The teams are meeting in the regular season for the first time since September 2020, a 34-20 win for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes threw three touchdowns for Kansas City.


The Chiefs are averaging 29.5 points per game for the season, second in the NFL, and they are facing a Texans defense that has surrendered 24.2 PPG (26th). Meanwhile, Houston has scored 16.2 points a game this season, 30th in the league, and Kansas City is allowing 22.9 PPG (18th).

The Chiefs rank as the league’s top team in passing yards per game (320.0, 1st), while they are 18th in rushing yards (114.6). The Texans are 12th in passing yards allowed per game (226.9) and 32nd against the run (165.9).

Houston has been one of the league’s least productive rushing teams, averaging 89.9 yards per game (28th), while ranking 26th in passing yards (213.3). The Chiefs are allowing 258.4 passing yards (24th) and 106.2 rushing yards per game (6th).

Kansas City is averaging 4.3 red zone trips a game this season, second most in the NFL, finding the end zone 66% of the time (5th). Houston ranks as the lowest volume red zone offense in the league, advancing inside the 20-yard-line just 2.7 times per game (32nd) and scoring a touchdown on 43% of those possessions (31st).

Kansas City has had trouble defending their own red zone, allowing opponents to find the end zone 68% of the time (32nd).


Through 13 games, Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 33 touchdowns (11 INT) and 320.0 yards per game to lead Kansas City in passing. In seven away games this season, he has 19 TDs (6 INT) and an average of 314.0 yards passing.

Isiah Pacheco leads the team in rushing with an average of 45.5 yards a game over 13 games. He has three touchdowns on the ground. Travis Kelce is the Chiefs’ leading receiver with 79.9 yards a game and 12 TDs.

He is averaging 6.2 receptions on 9.0 targets per game. Davis Mills has 11 passing touchdowns (12 INT) with 210.8 yards per game through 11 games to lead Houston. In five home games this season, he has thrown for seven TDs (7 INT) and an average of 192.2 yards.

Dameon Pierce has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 72.2 yards a game through 13 games. He has five total touchdowns, four rushing and one receiving. Brandin Cooks has been a key target in the Texans’ aerial attack.

He has one touchdown and a 52.0 yard per game average through 10 appearances. Brandin Cooks is averaging 7.1 targets per game (4.4 receptions).


Houston is looking for a first home victory this season.

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

KC Chiefs -14.5 (-110)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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