Super Bowl LV
Date: February 7, 2021
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Super Bowl LV is just five days away, meaning there is no better time than now to break down the odds and markets for the biggest game of the NFL season.
Take a look at the Quarterback Prop Bet Odds for Super Bowl LV below:
Player Passing Yards Over/Under:
Patrick Mahomes: 325.5 yard (-115/-115)
Tom Brady: 295.5 yards (-115/115)
Mahomes’ total yards line has likely been boosted due to his 462 passing yards and three touchdown performance in the Chiefs 27-24 victory over the Bucs in Week 12. However, the reigning Super Bowl MVP has exceeded 325.5 yards in just seven of his 17 games this season, including four consecutive games between Week 8 and Week 12.
Despite missing the bulk of the second half against Cleveland in the AFC Divisional round, Mahomes is still averaging 290 yards per game in the postseason to go along with his 316 passing yards per game in the regular season.
At even money (Over/Under -115/-115) this one could truly go either way, however 325.5 is a lot of yards when coming up against ferocious pass rush with a depleted O-line. But as we’ve seen so often in his short career, Patrick Mahomes welcomes the big stage and is capable of just about anything.
Coming into his 10th Super Bowl with an Over/Under line of 295.5, Tom Brady averaged 289.6 yards per game in the 2020-21 regular season, which included six 300+ passing yard games.
In this postseason, Brady has thrown for 860 yards at 286.7 YPG in his three playoff games, highlighted by his 381 yard two touchdown performance against Washington in the NFC Wild Card game.
In the final three games of the regular season and opening playoff game, Brady threw for over 345+ in each game. And, despite finishing the NFC Championship game with 280 yards, Brady put up 200 yards in the first half against Green Bay at Lambeau.
However, given that the Chiefs have given up 110+ rushing yards in both of their playoff games, Tampa Bay will likely run the ball much more than their opponents, which will hinder Brady’s passing stats, making the Under the better selection.
Tom knows Mahomes has that clutch gene 🧬 pic.twitter.com/aPFvck3fDO
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 1, 2021
Player Passing Touchdowns Over/Under:
Patrick Mahomes: 2.5 Touchdowns (-140/+105)
Tom Brady: 2.5 Touchdowns (+140/-190)
With 38 touchdowns in his 15 regular season games, Mahomes averaged just over 2.5 touchdowns per game, throwing 3+ TD’s on six occasions in the regular season. Given his injury against the Browns in the AFC Divisional round, Mahomes’ playoff stats aren’t a true representation of his performance.
However, the Chiefs quarterback once again added three touchdowns (and 325 yards) against the Bills in the AFC Conference Championship, taking him to seven 3+ TD games for the season.
Given the offensive firepower on display for both teams, if the Chiefs are going to win on Sunday Mahomes will likely need to throw three or more touchdowns. And given that the Chiefs are currently favored to win, Mahomes Over 2.5 TD’s is the deserved favorite for his TD line.
Brady’s 16 game, 40 touchdown year resulted in him wrapping up the regular season with an average of exactly 2.5 touchdowns per game. Brady has also thrown seven touchdowns in his three playoff games this postseason for 2.33 TD’s per game.
Brady Over 2.5 touchdowns at +140 is the best value of the four TD Over/Under’s on offer, given that the the 43-year-old has thrown more 3+ touchdowns games this season than Patrick Mahomes (eight in the regular season and playoffs).
With Brady as their quarterback, the Bucs have also been one of the best red zone offenses in the league, completing 62.5% of their pass attempts for 233 yards, 23 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
However, given that Leonard Fournette has scored twice in the Bucs three playoff games and the Chiefs do not have a dominant rushing defense, Bruce Arians may elect to run the ball with Fournette or Ronald Jones II more often in the red zone.
FIVE touchdown passes on the day for Brady! 😲
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 4, 2020
Player Interceptions Over/Under:
Patrick Mahomes: 0.5 (+150/-200)
Tom Brady: 0.5 (-180/+130)
Although the Buccaneers defense has recorded 20 interceptions in their 19 regular season and playoff games, Patrick Mahomes has only thrown six interceptions in his 17 games this year, three of which were in the Chiefs 33-27 victory over the Dolphins in Week 14.
If you remove that one game, Mahomes has thrown just three picks in 16 games at just under 0.19 interceptions per game, making the Under the justified favorite.
The only reason to entertain the Over 0.5 interceptions market for Mahomes is that the pressure of the Super Bowl can often force errors, as seen by Mahomes’ two picks in Super Bowl LIV last year, and that Mahomes will likely be forced into more pressure situations given Kansas City’s depleted O-line.
Prior to the NFC Championship game, Brady had thrown just one interception in six consecutive games. However, a three pick second half against Green Bay kept the Packers in the contest and boosted Brady’s interception tally for the years to 15 (12 regular season, three playoff) at an average of 0.75 interceptions per game in the regular season and 1 per game in the playoffs.
The Chiefs have also forced 18 interceptions in their 18 games this season, making it more likely that an errant Brady pass will be picked off.
Although it didn’t cost them the game, Brady’s performance in the second half of the NFC Championship game showed that he is capable of giving the occasional ball too much air, which means one turnover against the Chiefs is likely. However, if Tom and Tampa Bay once again turn the ball over on three occasions, Kansas City will undoubtedly make them pay.
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) January 24, 2021
Player Rushing Yards (Quarterbacks Only) Over/Under:
Patrick Mahomes: 21.5 yards (-115/-115)
Tom Brady: 0.5 yards (+150/-200)
Despite the focus being primarily on Patrick Mahomes’ recovery from concussion in the lead up to the AFC Championship game, reports later surfaced that a ‘turf toe’ injury that he was dealing with in the first half against the Browns was of greater concern.
Despite the injury, Mahomes still rushed for 14 yards in just over a half of the AFC Divisional round prior to the concussion. With the week off to recover, the toe injury and concussion recovery should not be a factor in Super Bowl LV.
As well as that, Mahomes has rushed for 21+ yards in nine of the 15 regular season games that he has played.With a season long single rush of 24 yards, Mahomes genuinely has the capability of covering this Over in one play and due to the pressure that comes with Super Bowls, a big yardage scramble run is certainly on the cards.
However, designed running plays for Mahomes will likely not result in the Over when coming up against the Bucs No. 1 ranked rushing defense.
Given the Buccaneers lack of Super Bowl experience (other than Brady and Gronkowski), it would be no surprise for Arians and Brady to call an infamous QB sneak on a fourth-and-inches or goals line play, relieving the pressure on the Bucs running backs.
This would only need to happen once to cover the Over of the 0.5 rushing yards and it is a play that we’ve seen so often from Brady in big games. Statistically there is not much evidence to support the Over, with Brady only picking up positive rushing yards in five of his 19 games this season for a combined 5 yards. However, given the experience and reliability of Brady when sneaking, the Over is the better value at +150.
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) January 19, 2020
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Stay tuned for more Super Bowl odds, news, picks and predictions every day this week as we countdown to Chiefs vs Bucs in Super Bowl LV
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