Super Bowl LV
Date: February 7, 2021
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Super Bowl LV is just six days away, meaning there is no better time than now to break down the odds and markets for the biggest game of the NFL season.
Take a look at the Game Totals Odds for Super Bowl LV below:
Super Bowl Total Pass Yards:
Over: 635.5 (-138)
Under: 635.5 (+100)
With neither Mahomes or Brady averaging 300+ yards during this postseason, the line of 635.5 and the Over being favored seems to be based more on potential than probability.
Both sides are undeniably pass dominant offenses, with Kansas City being the number one total (415.8) and passing (303.4) yard offense in the 2020-21 regular season, and Tampa Bay finishing the year with the seventh most total (384.1) and second most passing (289.1) yards.
However, their combined regular season total passing yards is just 592.5 yards per game, with this number declining further in the postseason, as the Chiefs (290) and the Bucs (286.7) have combined for just 576.7 total playoff passing yards per game.
The Over does look more enticing when looking at the two teams Week 12 matchup that saw a combined 798 total passing yards. However, the regular season and playoff per game statistics support the Under at +100 as the superior value.
325 yards passing and three touchdowns.
— NFL (@NFL) January 25, 2021
Super Bowl Total Rush Yards:
Over: 190.5 (-138)
Under: 190.5 (+100)
In the 2020-21 regular season, the Bucs allowed just 80.6 rushing yards per game (1st in the NFL), while only adding 94.9 rushing yards on offense (28th in the NFL). Whereas the Chiefs gave up 122.1 yards on the ground defensively (21st in the NFL) and added 112.4 rushing yards on offense (16th in the NFL).
However, given that both teams are pass heavy offenses and the bookies are predicting a high passing yard game, the line of 190.5 rushing yards is enticingly low and the Over is certainly in play, even with the Bucs dominant rushing defense.
In four of their five combined playoff games, the total rushing yards has exceeded 200 yards combined, with the one outlier coming in the Bucs NFC Championship game against the Packers (143 rushing yards total).
Leonard Fournette alone is averaging 70.3 rushing yards on 16 carries per game for the Bucs this postseason and the Chiefs duo of Darrel Williams and Mecole Hardiman are averaging 92 yards on the ground in their two games. That is without Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Le’Veon Bell, Tyreek Hill and Ronald Jones II having any impact in the backfield throughout these playoffs.
Leonard Fournette: 7 TDs in 6 career playoff games
Playoff Lenny is for real 👀 😤 pic.twitter.com/1zb0gGggM5
— PFF (@PFF) January 25, 2021
Super Bowl Total Sacks:
Over: 3.5 (-163)
Under: 3.5 (+120)
With Eric Fisher ruled out of Super Bowl LV, Kansas City will enter the biggest game of the NFL season with arguably their weakest O-line of the year. Along with Fisher’s Achilles injury, the Chiefs best offensive lineman last season, right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, has been out with a back injury since Week 6.
Kansas City’s depleted offensive line will be coming up against a ferocious Buccaneers pass rush that averaged 3.0 sacks per game (4th in the NFL) in the 2020-21 regular season, led Jason Pierre-Paul (9.5), Devin White (9), Shaquil Barrett (8) and Ndamukong Suh (6).
Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett have been two of the postseason highlights for Tampa Bay, combining for 5.0 sacks against the Packers in the NFC championship game.
For the Chiefs, Chris Jones (7.5) and Frank Clarke (6) have also had outstanding years of pressuring the quarterback, leading the Chiefs pass rush to their 2.0 sacks per game in the regular season.
In their much-discussed Week 12 encounter, Brady was sacked once while Mahomes was sacked twice, and that was with Eric Fisher trying to keep Pierre-Paul (1), Barrett (1), White and Suh at bay. With Fisher out and the Bucs pass rush in the form that they are in, the Over is the deserved favorite.
Aaron Rodgers took 25 sacks this season.
10 of them came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pic.twitter.com/cW1UjqaCe6
— PFF (@PFF) January 25, 2021
Super Bowl Total Punts:
Over: 6.5 (+110)
Under: 6.5 (-150)
Although the value is lower for the Under here, this is looking like one of the picks of the game at -150. The combined regular season averages for the number of punts by Tommy Townsend (KC) and Bradley Pinion (TB) is just over 6.6.
However, in the postseason the two punters have combined for just 3.5 punts per game, with the Chiefs only punting once in their two playoff games. The lack of punting can be attributed to both coaches having faith in their offenses to pick up a first down when fourth and short.
The Chiefs averaged 1.0 fourth down attempt per game in the regular season and the Bucs averaged 0.875 with both sides converting at over 56%. This has transferred into the postseason with Kansas City 3/3 and Tampa Bay 2/2 on fourth down attempts in the playoffs, converting at a combined 100% as they enter Super Bowl LV.
With football’s ultimate prize on the line, neither Andy Reid nor Bruce Arians will go into their shell next Sunday. Expect both offenses to continue to roll the dice on fourth and short and keep their punters on the side-lines.
— TopoffSports (@TopoffSports) January 17, 2021
*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Bet365
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