Free MLB Picks Today: Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros 6/8/23

Framber Valdez, one of this season’s toughest pitchers, leads the Houston Astros (+130) into Rogers Centre on Thursday as they match up against the Toronto Blue Jays (-150) with the visitors looking to split the four-game series. The early total has been set at 8.5 with the under a -115 favorite.

The Blue Jays (35-28) lead the series 2-1 after winning 3-2 on Wednesday, their third head-to-head victory in six games this season. Chris Bassitt went eight innings, giving up two runs on four hits, to get the win, and Jordan Romano picked up his 16th save with a scoreless ninth.

Brandon Belt went 2 for 4 with a solo home run in the win. Yordan Alvarez was 1 for 4 with a home run and two RBIs for the Astros (36-26), extending his on-base streak to 19 games.

ON THE MOUND

Valdez (6-4, 2.16 ERA) is slated to get the start for Houston. The left-hander ranks fourth in the AL in ERA. Valdez threw seven scoreless innings in his last start, a 6-2 road win over the Angels on Friday. He got the win, giving up five hits while striking out seven and walking one.

Valdez is making his first appearance against the Blue Jays this season. Valdez made one start against the Blue Jays in 2022, a 3-2 road loss on May 1. He surrendered three runs on two hits over 6.1 innings, striking out two and walking two.

RHP Jose Berrios (5-4, 3.66 ERA) will take the mound for Toronto. He has made one prior start against the Astros this season, giving up two runs over seven innings in an 8-1 road defeat on April 19. He gave up three hits and walked one while striking out three in the loss.

In his last start on Saturday, Berrios took a no-decision on the road against the Mets. He threw six innings and gave up one run on four hits, striking out six and walking three in the 2-1 victory.

AT THE PLATE

Over the last five games, Houston has averaged 4.8 runs a game, a small gain compared to their season average of 4.5. Against righties like Berrios this season, the ‘Stros have a .703 OPS. Alvarez is the team’s best performer against right-handers with a .955 OPS in 130 at-bats.

Toronto is averaging only 4.0 runs per game in the last five, down slightly from 4.6 for the season. The Jays have a .706 OPS against lefties in 2023. With a .722 OPS over 44 at-bats, George Springer has been their best hitter against left-handers.

HOME AND AWAY

Houston is 18-12 in road games in 2023, scoring 4.6 runs per game while allowing 3.4 runs. Toronto has gone 17-11 at Rogers Centre this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game while surrendering 3.6. Toronto is 6-4 in the last 10 games between the teams at Rogers Centre despite an average scoreline favoring Houston (4.2-3.7).

STANDINGS UPDATE

The Astros are second in the AL West, four games behind the division-leading Rangers. The Blue Jays are fourth in the AL East, nine games behind the Rays.