Free MLB Picks Today: Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres 7/1/23

The San Diego Padres (37-45) are on the road to face the Cincinnati Reds (44-38) at Great American Ball Park on Saturday. The Reds took Friday’s series opener 7-5 in 11 innings, their second head-to-head victory in four games this season. Daniel Duarte got the win with 0.1 scoreless innings of relief.

Spencer Steer went 2 for 3 with a home run and two RBIs in the win. Tyler Stephenson added a home run and two runs. Juan Soto was 3 for 5 with a double and one RBI for the Padres, extending his on-base streak to 17 games.

ON THE MOUND

Yu Darvish (5-6, 4.84 ERA) is slated to get the start for San Diego. The right-hander allowed four runs over six innings in his last start, a 4-2 road defeat against the Giants on June 21. He was charged with the loss, giving up seven hits while striking out six and walking two.

Left-hander Brandon Williamson (1-1, 5.82 ERA) will toe the rubber for Cincinnati. It’s his first appearance of the season against the Padres. In his last start on Monday, Williamson took the loss on the road against the Orioles. He threw two innings and gave up three runs on two hits, striking out two and walking four in the 10-3 defeat.

AT THE PLATE

Over the last five games, San Diego has averaged 3.4 runs a game, a small drop compared to their season average of 4.3. Against lefties like Williamson this season, the Padres have a .778 OPS, fifth highest in the league.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is the team’s most productive hitter against left-handers with a 1.058 OPS in 60 at-bats. Cincinnati is averaging 6.0 runs per game in the last five, up from 5.0 for the season, with a stronger slugging percentage (.447 vs .413).

The Reds have a .742 OPS against righties in 2023. With a .916 OPS over 181 at-bats, Jake Fraley has been their best hitter against right-handers.

HOME AND AWAY

San Diego is on a four-game losing streak in road games, bringing their record to 17-23 in 2023. The Padres have scored 4.4 runs per game away from home, while allowing 4.4 runs.

Cincinnati has gone 22-20 at their home park this season, averaging 5.0 runs per game while surrendering 5.6. In the last 10 games between the teams at Great American Ball Park, San Diego is 6-4 with an average scoreline of 5.2-4.6.