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Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five best games on today’s schedule!
Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins – 2.10PM ET
The Minnesota Twins continue their home stand but have a change of opponent, now hosting the red hot Boston Red Sox in a four game set this week, starting tonight. The Twins will be hoping that a change of opponent will bring a change in results after dropping their last two games to the Mariners.
After starting off their three game set with Seattle in impressive fashion, a 10-2 win, things were looking very positive for the Twins but a narrow 3-4 loss followed up by a 6-8 loss yesterday is not what the team would have wanted.
The Twins now sit at just 5-4 through the early stages of the season and face a Red Sox team that has won six straight games and seem to really have found their stride. After dropping three straight to the Orioles to start the season, Boston picked up three straight over Tampa Bay before turning the tables and winning three straight in Baltimore.
Minnesota in July
Surface of the sunBut nothing’s hotter than @OfficialBuck103 at the plate. 🔥🔥🔥🔥#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/gFUcoIeoaE
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) April 11, 2021
Over their six game winning streak, Boston has a run differential of +28 with J.D Martinez leading the way with 10 runs for the season, second most in the league. However, despite being one game worse off in the standings, the Twins have a better overall run differential and a better on-base percentage so far this season.
Minnesota has the equal-third best ERA and the fourth best WHIP, compared to Boston being 16th and 19th respectively. Despite the Red Sox’s winning streak, there’s a reason that the Twins are favored in this one and their defense should be able to get them the win here.
MLB Pick – Minnesota Twins (-154)
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New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays – 7.07PM ET
Both the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays are looking to pick up a second straight win in the first of three straight between the two sides. New York snapped their three game losing streak with a spectacular 10th innings win over the Rays while Toronto snapped a four game losing streak of their own in incredible fashion on Saturday.
After losing two to the Rangers then dropping the first two of three to the Angels, the Blues Jays came out to play in a massive 15-1 win on Saturday. A seven run second innings kicked things off with another seven runs over the next two innings and Toronto seems to have found some form at the perfect time.
Both teams come into this three game set with just a 4-5 record but Toronto are slightly better off in run differential, being +7 to New York’s +5. These sides opened the season facing each other in three games with the Blue Jays coming out with two wins but scored just one more run than the Yankees.
While New York’s bounce back win wasn’t as impressive, a 10th innings win is always memorable. Rougned Odor had a two-out RBI single to break the tie in the 10th and helped set up the four run innings to win the game and New York will be hoping to carry momentum from that into this one.
New York and Toronto are fifth and sixth in ERA respectively but the Yankee’s WHIP is much better, 1.01 to the Blue Jays’ 1.23 and we like their consistency a bit better than Toronto’s heading into this clash.
MLB Pick – New York Yankees (-184)
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Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers – 7.40PM ET
After losing their last two games in Pittsburgh, the Chicago Cubs continue their road trip against the Milwaukee Brewers for a three game set to start the week. The back to back losses dropped Chicago to 4-5 on the season while Milwaukee’s back to back wins in St. Louis brought them up to 5-4 and gives them good momentum heading into this series.
After failing to score six runs in a game since their season opener, the Brewers scored nine runs in each of their last two with Avisail Garcia hitting two runs in each game. The wins allowed Milwaukee to swing their run differential into the positives, sitting at +5 for the season.
It’s the Mayor’s turn!
Shaw hits a three-run homer and it’s now 7-0 in the second inning. pic.twitter.com/KcqCTGuN2K
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) April 11, 2021
Chicago on the other hand has a miserable -11 run differential, second worst in the National League. Not only that but the Cubs have the worst batting average in the league of just .167 and have scored just nine runs over their last five games.
A 2-8 loss followed up by a 1-7 loss is far from an ideal lead up for this game for the Cubs and Milwaukee should be looking to take advantage of Chicago’s poor form. The Brewers have the seventh best ERA in the league and they are favored in this one for a reason.
MLB Pick – Milwaukee Brewers (-134)
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Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals – 8.10PM ET
The 4-3 Kansas City Royals return home from a four game road trip to host the 6-3 Los Angeles Angels in a three game series this week. While the Royals come in off a narrow one run, tenth innings victory, the Angels will be hoping to put their last game out of their memories as soon as possible.
After taking the first two of three games against the Blue Jays, LA had a defensive nightmare in a 1-15 loss on Saturday. The Angels allowed 14 runs over three innings and will put that one in the forget and move on pile.
Prior to that game, the Angels had a +9 run differential but such a massive loss obviously skews their overall differential in such early stages of the season. Kansas City has just a modest +3 run differential from their seven games so far, playing quite inconsistently to start the season.
Both teams are in the bottom half of the league for ERA and in the bottom seven for WHIP, both allowing too many runs than they would have liked so far. On the other hand, both teams are top nine for batting average with Mike Trout and Whit Merrifield both being in the top 10 for individual batting averages and having three home runs each.
These sides met twice in Spring Training and while that isn’t the best formline to follow, the Angels won one game whilst they drew the other. LA lost Dexter Fowler, their starting right fielder, to a torn ACL, and that creates some holes that need to be filled and that may translate to some uncertain lineups and inconsistent performances in the short-term. We are riding with the home side here.
MLB Pick – Kansas City Royals (+110)
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Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants – 9.45PM ET
A pair of 6-3 teams in the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants kick off a three game series tonight. While that record has the Giants placed third in the NL West, the Reds are currently on top of the NL Central division and this series has early implications for who makes the playoffs in the conference.
Cincinnati were on a six game winning streak but have lost back to back games to the Diamondbacks, managing just three runs while giving up 15 over those two games. Despite this poor stretch, the Reds have an incredible +20 run differential thanks to some heavy hitting to start the season.
🧹🧹🧹#ResilientSF | @BlueShieldCA pic.twitter.com/yutjF49gYk
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) April 11, 2021
The Reds have scored a league-best 66 runs for the season, eight more than the next best and leads the league in batting average. The Giants are just 26th for batting average and have scored just 31 runs, 35 less than Cincinnati despite playing the same amount of games.
While they may not be the most offensive minded team, San Francisco’s run differential is still +5 thanks to some pretty handy defense. The Giants have the second best ERA and have allowed the equal-third fewest amount of runs in the conference and equal-fourth fewest in the league.
While the Reds started the season on fire, they have managed just three runs over their last two games and now play an even better defensive team in the Giants. We like San Francisco to shut down the Reds and get the job done at home.
MLB Pick – San Francisco Giants (-120)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.
