Free NFL Picks Today: Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs 1/7/23

Free NFL Picks Today: Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs 1/7/23
Sat 7th January 2023

The Kansas City Chiefs (13-3, 6-2 Away) and Las Vegas Raiders (6-10, 4-3 Home) face off Saturday at Allegiant Stadium for their regular season finales. The Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites, and the total is 52.5. Kansas City is coming off a narrow 27-24 win over the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, their fourth straight victory.

Patrick Mahomes was 29 of 42 for 328 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. Isiah Pacheco ran nine times for 31 yards and a touchdown. Kadarius Toney caught four passes for 71 yards. Las Vegas lost 37-34 to the San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday.

Jarrett Stidham threw for 365 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. Josh Jacobs carried 17 times for 69 yards and a touchdown. Davante Adams added two touchdowns of his own. He was targeted 11 times, hauling in seven receptions for 153 yards.


The Chiefs won the first meeting between the teams this season, a 30-29 victory in October, their fourth straight win against Las Vegas. Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdowns for Kansas City. Derek Carr tossed two touchdowns for Las Vegas, as Davante Adams found the end zone twice.


The Chiefs are averaging 29.1 points per game for the season, best in the NFL, and they are facing a Raiders defense that has surrendered 24.2 PPG (26th). Meanwhile, Las Vegas has scored 23.9 points a game this season, 12th in the league, and Kansas City is allowing 22.3 PPG (21st).

The Chiefs rank as the league’s top team in passing yards per game (315.5, 1st), while they are 21st in rushing yards (112.6). Look for them to exploit a matchup advantage through the air, as the Raiders are 29th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (257.4). Against the run, Las Vegas is 18th (119.9).

Las Vegas is 11th in the league in passing yards per game (247.7) and 16th in rushing (122.5), while the Chiefs are allowing 245.3 passing yards (24th) and 107.8 rushing yards per game (10th). Kansas City is averaging an NFL-best 4.2 red zone trips a game this season, finding the end zone 69% of the time (3rd).

The Chiefs should match up well against one of the league’s weakest red zone defenses, as the Raiders have allowed opponents to score on 65% of red zone trips (28th).


Through 16 games, Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 40 touchdowns (12 INT) and 315.5 yards per game to lead Kansas City in passing. In eight away games this season, he has 21 TDs (6 INT) and an average of 316.8 yards passing.

Isiah Pacheco leads the team in rushing with an average of 47.9 yards a game over 16 games. He has four touchdowns on the ground. Travis Kelce is the Chiefs’ leading receiver with 81.2 yards a game and 12 TDs. He is averaging 6.5 receptions on 9.1 targets per game.

Derek Carr has 24 passing touchdowns (14 INT) with 234.8 yards per game through 15 games to lead Las Vegas. In six home games this season, he has thrown for 10 TDs (2 INT) and an average of 235.0 yards.

Josh Jacobs has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 100.5 yards a game through 16 games. He has 12 touchdowns.

Davante Adams has been the primary target in the Raiders’ passing game. He has 14 touchdowns and a 90.2 yard per game average through 16 appearances. Davante Adams is averaging 10.7 targets per game (5.9 receptions).

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

KC Chiefs -8.5 (-110)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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