Just six days remain of the regular season! There are still playoff spots to be played for and the action is heating up. We have made our best MLB picks for the top five games scheduled for Tuesday, September 28th.
Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five best games on today’s schedule!
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays – 7.07PM EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees square off in the first of a three game series tonight. Given there are just two games separating the sides, with Boston wedged between them, and only two of those three teams can make the postseason, everything is on the line in this clash.
Tim Newton
The Yankees come in off three wins in Boston and are now tasked with another tough road series against an AL East rival. They had an exceptional week last week overall, going 6-0 and setting themselves up nicely for a Wild Card slot. Meanwhile Toronto only split a four game series with the Twins and may have cost themselves a shot at the postseason. But they still have six more games you may say! Well I am siding with New York in this clash and it may make the gap between these sides too big for Toronto to overcome.
Both Jameson Taillon and Hyun Jin Ryu have been solid starting pitchers for their respective clubs but have slipped off lately. Both of their ERAs have increased over their last seven games, however one has slipped more than the other. Ryu’s ERA has gone from 4.34 for the season to a massive 7.09 over his last seven games. He has given up four more runs than Taillon despite pitching in five less innings over a seven game stretch and given the Yankees batting lineup, led by Giancarlo Stanton, are in seriously good form, New York should be too good and am happy to take the value with them as dogs for this clash.
Tim’s MLB Pick: New York Yankees (+110)
A Standout Week from Big G.
Congratulations, @Giancarlo818 👏 pic.twitter.com/wbfV485dp2
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 27, 2021
Katherine Mouradian
Two Wild Card contenders in the AL will face off against each other in a three game series. Currently the Yankees are sitting in the top spot in the AL Wild Card race, one game ahead of the Red Sox. The Blue Jays are currently sitting in third place in the AL Wild Card race, one game behind the Red Sox. So, it is all to play for in this series! The Yankees are putting in the wins when it really matters, they have won all seven of their previous games after having a day off, and they have won five of their previous six games on the road.
The Blue Jays have won the last four of their meetings with the Yankees, and they have won 21 of their previous 29 games overall. Isn’t this a tough one to pick! The Yankees are playing well, but I think Taillon hasn’t been at his best, especially on the road, and Ryu has also not been pitching too well as of late. With these two confidence lacking pitchers, plus the great offensive of each team, I’m liking the look of a high scoring game.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Over 9 (-120)
Mike Su
The New York Yankees continue their recent stretch of tough inter-division games against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Yankees are coming off a 3 game series with the Red Sox which saw them win all 3 games and take the first Wild Card spot. This series will be crucial for both teams. If the Yankees slip up and lose these 3 games, they will fall out of the 2 Wild Card spots. If the Blue Jays lose all 3 games they are likely going to have a near impossible gap to close to acquire the final Wild Card spot.
In the opening game of this key game for the American League playoffs the Yankees will be starting Jameson Taillon. Taillon has been decent this season with a4.41 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The Blue Jays will be starting Hyun Jin Ryu who has a similar 4.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Neither team looks like they have a considerable edge in the pitching within this matchup. The Blue Jays definitely have the advantage when it comes to pitching as they have a top 5 unit while the Yankees are in the bottom half of the league. However the Yankees are red-hot with 6 wins in a row. I think this game will be tight but the Blue Jays should pull out the victory.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (-126)
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves – 7.20PM EDT
We have a top of the table clash between the top two seeds in the NL East. The first-placed Atlanta Braves host the second-placed Philadelphia Phillies in a three game series that could determine who represents the division in the postseason. Atlanta currently holds a 2.5 games lead in the division but anything could happen in the last week of the season.
Tim Newton
While the Braves come into this series on a three game winning streak, are at home and currently lead the division, I like the Phillies to win the opener tonight. They are ahead in the season series 9-7 and I like their starting pitcher better for this clash. Zack Wheeler not only has better season-long stats, but he has been performing much better than Charlie Morton lately, giving Philadelphia the edge tonight.
Wheeler has a 14-9 record and 2.79 ERA for the season but looking at his four games in September, he is 3-0 and has only given up three runs across 23.2 innings of work. Meanwhile, Morton is 13-6 and has a 3.53 ERA for the season, but has been expensive lately. Over his four games that he has started in September, Morton has given up 10 runs across 25 innings of work and has recorded 10 less strikeouts than Wheeler despite pitching more. This should give Philadelphia enough of a headstart for this game and I think they will take advantage.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (+108)
Katherine Mouradian
This has got to be one of the most important series’ still left to play. The Phillies are two and a half games behind the Braves for the top spot in the NL East, which means if the Phillies can win at least two games, they are in with a real chance of knocking off the Braves and making it into the postseason. There are no Wild Card hopes either for the team that finishes second, so finish first and you’re in, second and you’re out.
The Phillies have won one of their previous seven games after having a day off, and they have won just one of their previous five games against a team that has a winning record. The Braves have won all seven of their previous games against a right handed pitcher and they have won seven of their previous eight games in total. The Phillies did manage to win five games in a row, before losing their game last time out, but I have to go with the Braves here. The Braves have been playing well at home, and there isn’t much to separate the two starting pitchers, so I think it will be close, but the Braves will be too good and get the win.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves (-126)
Mike Su
The Phillies will have a chance to take the NL East division lead from the Braves if they can best the Braves in this 3 game series. The Phillies sit just 2.5 games behind the Braves in the division standings and are a chance to steal the division.. If they aren’t able to at least win 2 of the 3 games, the Phillies will lose their chance at the division title and likely be out of the playoffs. The Braves also face the same issues as if they lose a majority of these games they may be out of the playoffs completely after leading the NL East division for most of the season.
In the first game of this crucial series the Braves will be starting Charlie Morton. Morton has been good with a 3.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 203 strikeouts in just 176 innings, leading to a 13-6 record. The Phillies will be starting Zack Wheeler who has a 14-9 record with a great 2.79 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 240 strikeouts this season. Wheeler is definitely the better pitcher in this matchup and has been great this season against the Braves with 34 strikeouts and just 4 allowed runs in 26 innings. The Phillies also hold the edge this season with 9 wins out of the 16 games between the 2 rivals. Therefore, in this key matchup I have to go with the red hot Phillies.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (+108)
Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals – 7.45PM EDT
We have another top of the division clash as the Milwaukee Brewers, who are on top of the NL Central, get on the road to take on the red-hot St Louis Cardinals, who are second in the NL Central. These sides met for four games last week, in Milwaukee, and the Cardinals won all four, making up part of their record-breaking 16 game win streak. Can the Brewers bring it to an end tonight?
Tim Newton
A simple way to answer the above question is, no. St Louis is playing so well right now and just taught Milwaukee a lesson last week, on their own field. They are now at home for the rematch and I think they will run away with this one. I am worried by the fact that Milwaukee are a better team on the road than at home this season, have a top three bullpen and also have been a top 10 batting unit since the All Star break, but the Cardinals have won 16 straight and should get the job done.
Adam Wainwright starting is also another big tick for the home team, given he is 5-0 with a 2.36 ERA from his last seven games. He has given up just 12 runs across 45.2 innings of work over that stretch and has held four of his last nine opponents scoreless. However, he did give up five runs across four innings of work when facing the Brewers last week, but St Louis still went on to win that game by three runs, highlighting how good they are on both sides of the ball right now.
Tim’s MLB Pick: St Louis Cardinals (+104)
With a new franchise record, the St. Louis Cardinals are a serious threat for October 🔥 pic.twitter.com/9litKaJ55V
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) September 27, 2021
Katherine Mouradian
The Brewers are confirmed for the postseason, but they have only won five of their previous 10 games. The Cardinals aren’t officially confirmed, but it looks like they will take out the second Wild Card spot in the NL, and they are playing ridiculously well, and have won 16, yes 16, games in a row. They only have three more games left this month, and so far they have only lost five!
The Brewers have won 38 of their previous 53 games on the road, and they have won eight of their previous 10 games after a day off. The Cardinals have won all five of their previous games at home and they have won 35 of their previous 52 games in total. I’m going to stick with the Cardinals, I just don’t want this party to end! The Cardinals have also won all four of the last games between these two teams, plus they are playing at home, they have Wainwright on the mound with a 2.72 ERA at home and there’s much more value in the Cardinals as well.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: St Louis Cardinals (+104)
Mike Su
The Cardinals are playing out of this world lately and are currently on a 16 game winning streak, in fact over their last 20 games, they have only lost 2 games. This phenomenal run has seen them beat the Brewers 4 times, the Dodgers twice, the Mets, the Cubs, the Reds and the Padres. The Cardinals now face the Brewers once again just a week after beating them 4 times in a row. The Cardinals will be looking to extend their winning streak and enter the playoffs red-hot.
In the first game of this 3 game series with the Brewers the Cardinals will be starting Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has been one of the better pitchers in the league this year with a 3.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP leading to a 16-7 record. On the other side, the Brewers will be starting Brandon Woodruff. Despite being one of the league’s best pitchers statistically with a 2.52 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 208 strikeouts in 175 innings, Woodruff only has a 9-10 record. Statistically the Brewers have the edge with batting as well. However, despite the numbers telling me the Brewers should win this, I have to go with the red-hot Cardinals who proved me wrong 4 times last week.
Mike’s MLB Pick: St Louis Cardinals (+104)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros – 8.10PM EDT
The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays face off in what could be a preview of the American League Championship series. The teams are second and first in the conference respectively and will be looking to take bragging rights into the postseason with a win in the three game series, of which tonight is the first game.
Tim Newton
The Astros simply win this game, right? While Houston has been wildly inconsistent lately, this game is set up perfectly for them to make a statement at home. Not only do they have good form over the Rays, winning two of three games in Tampa in the only other meeting between the two sides, but they have the advantage in starting pitchers as well.
Tampa Bay is starting Michael Wacha for this clash and he has a 3-5 record and 5.49 ERA from 27 appearances this season, 21 of which were starts. In his last start, Wacha gave up six runs on seven hits in six innings of work. Given Houston have scored the most runs this season, four more than the Rays, they are well equipped to take advantage of a lacklustre pitcher. Their own starter, Jose Urquidy, is 4-0 with a 3.18 ERA over his last seven games and should do enough to give the Astros the edge in the early going.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Houston Astros (-142)
Katherine Mouradian
The Astros are four and a half games ahead of the Mariners, and are yet to officially confirm their spot in the postseason, and their four game losing streak really isn’t helping them, but it would certainly help them turn it around if they can nab a win or two against the Rays in this series. The Rays have been sitting pretty for a while and have won five of their previous six games. So, two teams that are all but confirmed for the postseason, will they take their foot of the pedal a little bit, or look to make a statement against another top team in the league?
The Rays have won five of their previous six games after they have had a day off, and they have won 12 of their previous 15 when it comes to the first game of the series. The Astros have won five of their previous seven clashes against the Rays overall, and have won five of their previous six clashes with the Rays when playing in Houston. While the Astros look to be stumbling a smidge, it looks like their recent record against the Rays is fairly solid, which will give them some confidence going into this clash. It’s hard to go against a team like the Rays, but I am, especially considering that Wacha doesn’t have the best record on the road.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Houston Astros (-142)
Mike Su
The leaders of the AL East and the AL West play each other for the 4th time this season in a match that most likely won’t have huge implications going forward. The Rays are locked into the first seed while the Astros will likely be the second seed. This matchup could go in either direction as both teams aren’t starting their best pitchers. This is likely a tactic to keep their strategy under wraps until their likely playoff encounter.
The Rays will be starting the below average Michael Wacha who has been bad for the Rays this year. Wacha has a 5.49 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He will be facing Jose Urquidy who has a 3.56 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Urquidy has a definitive advantage over Wacha. However, as both teams possess top tier batting units, both of these relatively underplayed pitchers may have a hard time. With Wacha pitching, this may turn into batting practice for the Astros. Due to the players and the situation of this game, I think this game will go overs.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-102)
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers – 10.10PM EDT
The Los Angeles Dodgers are just two games behind the Giants for top spot in the NL West and National League overall. In order to make up that ground, they host the San Diego Padres in a three game series, with the first game being held tonight.
Tim Newton
While the Padres shot themselves in the foot and cost them a spot in the postseason, they could play spoiler to LA’s dreams of finishing on top of the division and conference. However when looking at the numbers, I don’t think that will be the case. LA, who were the second team in all of baseball to reach 100 wins for the season, are currently leading the season series 9-7 and have won all six games played between the sides since the All Star break.
The Padres are sending out Yu Darvish for this clash and that is a good sign for the Dodgers. While he kept the red-hot Cardinals to no runs from seven innings of work two back, Darvish has still given up 19 runs in 25 innings in his five games in September. Given LA has the best run differential of all teams this season, they should be able to swing for the fences and get the job done tonight.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (-196)
MAX POWER, MAX RESULTS. pic.twitter.com/ogp8yYvAfB
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) September 23, 2021
Katherine Mouradian
The poor Padres, they had a series against the Cardinals, then the Giants, then the Braves and now the Dodgers! They were looking like a real chance for a NL Wild Card spot, but those hopes are now well and truly over. The Dodgers have been in a tight tussle all season long with the Giants for the top spot in the NL West, and they are currently two games behind, so they really need to get all the wins they can, to improve their chances of knocking off the Giants right at the last minute.
The Padres have won just seven of their previous 26 games on the road, and they have won only 11 of their previous 40 games in total. The Dodgers have won 39 of their previous 52 games on a Tuesday and they have won 44 of their previous 63 games after a day off. The depth of the Dodgers team is much better compared to the Padres, and the Dodgers, playing at home, just know how to win, and I’m expecting a win for the Dodgers in this opening game.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (-196)
Mike Su
The Dodgers play their division rivals the Padres in a 3 game series that is crucial to the Dodgers’ chances at winning the NL West division. The Dodgers need to be perfect and not only win all 3 of the games in their series against the Padres, but need to win their 6 total remaining games in order to have a chance at closing the two game gap between themselves and the Giants. The high importance of this matchup is highlighted by the Dodgers starting Walker Buehler against the Padres.
Buehler has the league’s 4th best ERA, 2.58, and a 0.98 WHIP leading to a strong 14-4 record this season. In 4 games against the Padres this season, Buehler has allowed just 7 runs and had 26 strikeouts in 26 innings, leading to a 3-1 record against the Padres. The Padres will be starting Yu Darvish at pitcher, who has 4.21 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Although Darvish has been decent this year, he will be facing one of the league’s best batting units so he will most likely struggle. The Dodgers should destroy the Padres behind a strong game from Buehler.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+118)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.
