Free MLB Picks Today: Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds 9/8/22

The Chicago Cubs (57-79) host the Cincinnati Reds (54-80) at Wrigley Field on Thursday with the three-game series in the balance. The Reds evened the series 1-1 after winning 7-1 on Wednesday, their fifth head-to-head victory in 12 games this season. Mike Minor got the win, allowing one run on 10 hits over 5.2 innings. Aristides Aquino was 3 for 4 with two home runs and three RBIs in the win. Jake Fraley added a home run and two runs. P.J. Higgins went 2 for 4 with one RBI for the Cubs.

ON THE MOUND

Luis Cessa (3-2, 5.18 ERA) is set to take the mound for Cincinnati. The righty allowed two runs over five innings in his last start, a 3-2 road win over the Rockies on Friday. He yielded four hits while striking out four and walking two in the no-decision. Over four previous appearances against the Cubs this season, Cessa has allowed five earned runs over 3.1 innings (0-0, 13.50). He has struck out two and walked three. For Chicago, RHP Adrian Sampson (1-5, 3.95 ERA) takes the mound. He has made one prior start against the Reds this season, giving up two runs over four innings in a 7-2 road win on August 13. He gave up six hits and walked three, while striking out six in the no-decision. In his last start on Friday, Sampson took the loss on the road against the Cardinals. He threw five innings and gave up two runs on four hits, striking out four and walking two in the 8-0 defeat.

AT THE PLATE

Over the last five games, Cincinnati has averaged 5.4 runs a game, up from their season average of 4.3, thanks in part to increased slugging (.461 vs .382). Against right-handed pitchers like Sampson this season, the Reds have a .683 OPS. Kyle Farmer is the team’s most productive hitter against right-handers with a .603 OPS in 302 at-bats. Chicago is averaging only 2.8 runs per game in the last five, down from 4.1 for the season, with their slugging percentage dropping to .338 from .390. The Cubs have a .705 OPS against right-handers in 2022. With a .804 OPS over 296 at-bats, Willson Contreras has been their best hitter against right-handers.

HOME AND AWAY

Cincinnati is 25-41 in road games in 2022, scoring 3.6 runs per game while allowing 5.0 runs. Chicago has gone 29-39 at home this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game while surrendering 4.6. The NL Central rivals have split their last 10 meetings at Wrigley Field, though Chicago has the scoring advantage with an average final margin of 5.3-4.8.

STANDINGS UPDATE

The Reds are fourth in the NL Central, 25 games behind the division-leading Cardinals. The Cubs are third in the NL Central, 23 games behind the Cardinals.