Free MLB Picks Today: Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins 9/4/22

Max Fried, one of this season’s toughest pitchers, leads the way for the Atlanta Braves (83-51) as they match up against the Miami Marlins (55-77) at Truist Park on Sunday with the home team eyeing a sweep of the three-game series. The Braves lead the series 2-0 after winning 2-1 on Saturday, their seventh straight head-to-head victory and 11th in 15 games this season. Tyler Matzek threw 0.1 scoreless innings out of the bullpen to get the win. Austin Riley’s on-base streak is up to 10 games as he went 1 for 3 with a solo home run in the win. Nick Fortes was 2 for 3 with one run for the Marlins.

ON THE MOUND

Pablo Lopez (8-8, 3.66 ERA) is slated to start for Miami. The right-hander allowed two runs over six innings in his last start, a 3-2 home defeat against the Dodgers on Monday. He yielded five hits while striking out six and walking three in the no-decision. Lopez has made one previous start against the Braves this season, a 4-3 home loss on August 12. He surrendered two runs on four hits over 5.2 innings, striking out four. For Atlanta, lefty Fried (12-5, 2.56 ERA) will toe the rubber. He has made one prior start against the Marlins this season, giving up one runs over six innings in a 6-3 home win on May 29. He gave up six hits and walked three, while striking out five in the win. In his last start on Tuesday, Fried took the loss at home against the Rockies. He threw five innings and gave up three runs (2 ER) on seven hits, striking out three and walking one in the 3-2 defeat. The southpaw ranks fourth in the NL in ERA.

AT THE PLATE

Over the last five games, Miami has averaged only 1.4 runs a game, down from their season average of 3.6, while slashing worse across the board (.187/.246/.271). Against left-handed pitchers like Fried this season, the Fish have a .582 OPS, lowest in MLB. Miguel Rojas is the team’s most potent producer against left-handers with a .521 OPS in 103 at-bats.Atlanta is averaging only 3.6 runs per game in the last five, down from 4.9 for the season, with their on-base percentage falling to .301 from .317. The Braves have a .750 OPS against righties in 2022, fifth highest in the league. With a .358 OBP over 393 at-bats, Ronald Acuna Jr. has their highest on-base percentage against right-handers.

HOME AND AWAY

Miami is on a three-game losing streak away from loanDepot park, bringing their record to 29-39 in 2022. The Fish have scored 3.6 runs per game away from home, while allowing 4.1 runs. Atlanta has won four in a row at their home park. The Braves are 46-25 at home this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game while surrendering 3.7. Atlanta is 6-4 in the last 10 games at Truist Park between the NL East rivals with an average scoreline of 4.6-3.6.

STANDINGS UPDATE

The Marlins are fourth in the NL East, 29 games behind the division-leading Mets. The Braves are second in the NL East, two games behind the Mets. They currently occupy one of the Wild Card spots, sitting first.