US Open Predictions 2022: SportsTips’ Top Tennis Picks For Round 1

It’s time for the final Grand Slam of the year and the team at SportsTips.com are previewing the best six matches of the first round. Read below to check out our picks for the three best men’s and three best women’s matches for Round 1 at the US Open for 2022!

It is the opening round at the US Open and boy are there some interesting matchups for the first round. Who will take out the championship game in the men’s and women’s draw? It is sure to be a thrilling 2 weeks to find out! 

Enjoy our free tennis picks and predictions for each round at the US Open for the 2022 season.

Round 1 Tennis Picks at the US Open: Men’s Draw

Daniil Medvedev (1) vs Stefan Kozlov

The world number one, Daniil Medvedev, will be looking for a statement win against American Stefan Kozlov to kick off his US Open campaign. The Russian played at the Western & Southern Open, where he lost in the semifinals to Tsitsipas, in three sets. Kozlov was also at the Western & Southern Open, but he failed to make it through the qualifiers. 

Aleksandar Ricliev

Since the official news of Novak Djokovic’s inability to compete in the US Open came out, Medvedev has quickly moved to the top of the list of favorites. Last year’s champion is coming into the tournament in excellent form, looking as sharp as ever. The Russian superstar has always quickly disposed of low-tier opposition in the early rounds, and I don’t expect that to change in this match. Even on a bad day, not many tennis players in the world can prove to be worthy sparring partners for Medvedev. The variety of powerful attacks of the latter is an unsolvable enigma to everyone. 

And let’s be honest, Stefan Kozlov is not one of those people. Kozlov has always struggled in matches played against better opposition. He has eight losses in a row, with him unable to win a single set in six of them. He’s a decent player who has had some good games against average opponents, but the Russian is in a different league altogether. I would say it would be a good result for Kozlov to win a set in this match, however I don’t see it happening. Medvedev wins, 3-0.

Denis Kirilov

Even though Daniil Medvedev managed to snatch the World No.1 from Novak Djokovic back in June, the Russian’s performance seems to be a bit off this season. He started off the year with a final at the Australian Open, but ever since then, he struggles to be consistent throughout the tournaments. However, he is mostly known for his game on hard courts and not so much for his performance on clay and grass. Earlier in August, Medvedev made a strong tournament in Los Cabos, Mexico, clinching the title without losing a set, suggesting that he hasn’t lost his touch on the racquet. 

On the other hand, Stefan Kozlov is a World No. 111 and he comes to New York on an 8-game losing streak. He is looking for his first ATP Main Draw win since February when he defeated Grigor Dimitrov in three sets in Acapulco. Ever since this match, he went on a 3-18 run which is among the worst in the entire ATP and probably the worst for a top 150 player. Kozlov will certainly struggle against Medvedev’s fantastic serve, consistent backhand, and high tennis IQ. I think that the World No.1 will go off well on Monday and cover the spread in his opening match at Flushing Meadows. 

Jack Hartman

After Wimbledon’s decision to omit all Russian and Belarusian players from competing in the main draws, Daniil Medvedev heads to New York refreshed and in good form. He returns to Flushing Meadows as the defending champion and number one seed. Medvedev has proven in the past that he can be ruthless in these early rounds and I don’t expect that narrative to change here. 

Stefan Kozlov heads into the match in a purely dismal run of form. He has lost his last eight matches and you have to go back to June for his last win. More worryingly is that he has only won one set from these eight matches. Kozlov doesn’t have any weapons to hurt Medvedev and it will be the Russian who will be dominating all of the rallies. Medvedev should be able to make quick and swift work of Kozlov. Value is hard to find but I will back Medvedev to win the first set 6-2. He should win in three easy sets.

Marcos Giron vs Frances Tiafoe (22)

An all American affair in the first round that is sure to capture a lot of the home fan’s attention, when unseeded Marcos Giron takes on the 22nd seed, Frances Tiafoe. Giron successfully made it through the qualifiers at the Western & Southern Open, and won his opening round clash, before losing in straight sets to Bautista Agut. Tiafoe was also at the Western & Southern Open, and he made it through to the second round, before going down to Korda in three sets.

Aleksandar Ricliev

Marcos Giron is coming to the US Open full of confidence. His showings in the ATP tournament in Cincinnati were really impressive. He dismantled Goffin and Fognini, which is no small task for any tennis player. He fought bravely against Bautista-Agut in the 1/16 finals, and the loss was nothing to be embarrassed about. Giron has been having quite a busy year. On a good day, he can be a formidable opponent for everyone. 

Frances Tiafoe has been having a shaky year in my eyes. He has given the top players in the world a tough match, but he has also had some embarrassing losses to weaker competition. In the Washington ATP, he won the first set and put up a great fight in the second set against Kyrgios, only to later on lose all focus in the third set and get smacked quickly. In the Cincinnati ATP against Korda, the same thing happened. A great first set, followed by a complete loss of focus after. I might have the wrong read, but I can see the same thing happening again. I will go against the betting odds in this case. I got Marcos Giron winning the match and moving forward. 

Denis Kirilov

Marcus Giron might have been struggling a lot during the clay season, but it seems he found his rhythm after returning to the United States. The World No. 53 picked up two wins in Montreal over Jason Kubler and Alexey Popyrin before losing to Bautista Agut in the first round of the main draw. A week later in Cincinnati, Giron defeated David Goffin in straight sets in 1/32 finals. The 29-year-old American has reached the second round of the US Open in his last two appearances, but he will have some issues to repeat that this year. 

Frances Tiafoe has been playing well this year, but he also had his downfalls throughout the season. The young talent from Maryland reached a final in Estrella back in May, before going on a riot at Wimbledon reaching 1/8 finals when he suffered a comeback to David Goffin. Later on, he struggled to pick up more than two consecutive victories throughout the tournaments in North America in August. However, defeating Matteo Berrettini in Cincinnati has certainly given him an extra confidence boost ahead of the US Open. I think that Tiafoe will come on top, but Giron is still able to draw blood on Tuesday and I will go with a 3-1 win for the 24-year-old who has to defend a fourth round from last season.

Jack Hartman

The New York crowd has an all-American clash to look forward to in Round 1, and the matchup between Marcos Giron and Frances Tiafoe is an intriguing contest. On paper this should be a match that Tiafoe should win but it will be closer than that. The two play very similar games and head into the match in very similar form. Giron was able to string some wins together at the Cincinnati Open albeit with some of these wins coming in the qualifying rounds. He eventually fell in the Round of 32 to Roberto Bautista Agut but played well.

Frances Tiafoe fell at the same stage in Cincinnati losing in three sets to Seb Korda. Tiafoe has been up and down this year and has struggled for consistency. He did perform well at Wimbledon, losing in the Round of 16 and it’s his big match experience that just about gives him the edge here. The two played in April with Tiafoe winning in straight sets but this was on clay. Tiafoe should just about edge this contest but it will be a match that could go all the way. 

Rinky Hijikata vs Rafael Nadal (2)

Australian Rinky Hijikata will have a tough battle on his hands in the first round of the US Open, as he goes toe-to-toe with the second seed, Rafael Nadal. The Australian is coming off some good form, albeit at a lower level, where he made the final at the ITF USA F27, losing to Cassone in straight sets. Like many, Nadal was most recently at the Western & Southern Open, however his appearance was short lived, as he only played one match, where he went down in three sets to Ćorić.

Aleksandar Ricliev

You don’t have to be a betting mastermind or a tennis enthusiast to know who Nadal is. Yes, 22 time Grand Slam winner – Rafael Nadal. Sure, some would say he’s on the decline. He has changed his game too much to compensate for the lack of mobility and is no longer the same player. The last few years, he has been battling constant injuries. This year he’s also been having foot problems causing him colossal pain. At Wimbledon, he was forced to withdraw because of an ab strain. He has mostly been recovering from the injury since then, he only played in one match against Coric as a warmup for this tournament, so there are some fitness concerns.

Hijikata is a young Aussie tennis player. He’s mostly been playing against weaker opposition, but frankly, he’s been having some good results, and I hope we continue to see him improving and getting better. However, this is a totally different class. Even if Nadal is only 70% fitness ready, and if he decided to show up and play in the tournament, I believe he is. I still have him winning this one by a slide. I am taking Nadal as a winner with a game handicap.

Denis Kirilov

Rafael Nadal is coming to the US Open on a mission to grab his 23rd Grand Slam in his career which might put an end to the eternal dispute between the top 3 players of our generation. What he achieved this year is unparalleled as he managed to completely dominate the ATP at Grand Slam tournaments as he is still undefeated, since he withdrew from his semifinal against Nick Kyrgios at Wimbledon. Even at the age of 36, he seems quite unstoppable for the new generation of players. However, Borna Coric upset him in his return in Cincinnati suggesting that Nadal’s issues might still be present. 

His opponent in the first round of the US Open, Rinky Hijikata, has made a significant improvement in 2022. Even though he is World No.196, the young Australian fought well against Daniil Medvedev in 1/8 Finals of the tournament in Los Cabos. Hijikata will play his first match in a main draw at a Grand Slam as he has been given a Wild Card for the US Open. The 21-year-old Australian relies much on his groundstrokes as he is also a decent receiver. I think that he will be able to give Nadal a tough battle and eventually cover his spread at the end of the day. 

Jack Hartman

Well the Grand Slam dream is over for Rafa Nadal but he can still end the year with three Grand Slam titles with victory at this year’s US Open. It’s hard to gauge where Nadal’s game currently is following the lack of tennis he has played following Wimbledon. He has just made the one appearance during the American hard court swing, and his stay in Cincinnati was brief following a three set defeat to Borna Coric. We also don’t know where the Spaniard is fitness wise, but his troublesome foot is going to be something that will need to be continually monitored. 

We don’t know a great deal about Nadal’s first round opponent Rinky Hijikata but he could be a name we become accustomed to seeing in the future. The young Aussie is competing at this year’s US Open courtesy of a Wild Card and this will be his first ever Grand Slam appearance. Nerves are bound to play a part for Hijikata and this match will be put on one of the show courts which may not help. Nadal could be rusty but he will have far too much game and experience for his opponent, and should advance to Round 2 without too much trouble.

Round 1 Tennis Picks at the US Open: Women’s Draw

Danka Kovinić vs Serena Williams

It’s not a match between players who are seeded, but it will still have a lot of attention, as the retirement of Serena Williams looms large. If Williams wants to play another game in front of her home crowd, she will have to beat Danka Kovinić, who most recently lost to another unseeded player at the Granby National Bank Championships.

Aleksandar Ricliev

I’ve always considered watching Serena Williams on the tennis court to be one of the greatest pleasures in life. Yeah, she was that good. But then again, father time is undefeated, and it catches up to us all. I feel sorry for the little kids who won’t get to see her in action. Aggressive, precise, powerful beyond measure, a real champion who leaves everything on the court. She came into the world’s tennis as a young girl following in her sister’s footsteps. She will leave it as the best woman tennis player ever. Some could make the case – maybe the best player in the world, ever – in every sport. 

Danka Kovinic is an experienced tennis player. We don’t see many women tennis players keep on playing for so many years. She started this year well but is currently having a hard time. Her last win was in May, almost three months ago. She has lost in the first round in every tournament she signed up for after. I might be going on a sentimental value in this prediction, but the stats back it up as well. I have Serena Williams winning in straight sets.

Denis Kirilov

Serena Williams returns to New York after announcing her retirement plans earlier in August. She missed the previous edition of the US Open due to an injury suffered in her 2021 Wimbledon opening match against Alexandra Sasnovich. Williams, who will turn 41 next month, has always played well on hard courts and especially at Flushing Meadows. Serena is a 6-time winner on home ground with her last title dating back to 2014. Her mentality is unparalleled, while her groundstrokes and serves have regularly helped her win matches throughout her career. She might be slightly out of rhythm due to her lack of playing time in the past year, but she has proven she shouldn’t be crossed out just yet. 

Her opponent in the first round, Danka Kovinic, has had a decent career so far achieving her top result back in 2016 when she reached World No.46. However, she is a clay-court player and has never gone past the second round of the US Open. The 27-year-old Montenegrin has been struggling in her North American spell in August after suffering two straight losses to Nuria Parrizas-Diaz and Magdalena Frech. These defeats prolonged her losing streak to 5 matches as she hasn’t won a set since May. I think that she might crumble under pressure at Arthur Ashe Stadium in the night session on Monday. 

Jack Hartman

This is it. It looks like the curtain is about to come down on Serena Williams astonishing career but she will be hoping to prolong her impending retirement with a victory over Danka Kovinić. Despite Williams starting as the favorite, this will be a tricky match for her and is by no means a gimme. In Kovinić she faces an opponent with a similar game to Harmony Tan who beat her in Round 1 of this year’s Wimbledon. Kovinić doesn’t do a great deal with the ball but will make Williams work hard for every point. 

Despite Williams trying to build up some momentum ahead of this year’s US Open, her form heading into the tournament is still patchy. Her dismantling by Emma Raducanu in Cincinnati shows what sort of state Williams’s game is in. When it comes to this match, the support of the home crowd should just about see her through, but this has the ability to be nervy and tense. I called Serena to lose against Harmony Tan in Round 1 of Wimbledon, but she should just about survive here.

Naomi Osaka vs Danielle Collins (19)

Our third top ranked American woman, Danielle Collins, faces a very tough opening round opponent in Naomi Osaka. Osaka most recently played in the Western & Southern Open, where she lost in straight sets to Zhang, in the first round. Collins’ most recent match was at the Ladies Open Lausanne, where she lost in the first round to Waltert in three tight sets.

Aleksandar Ricliev

Naomi Osaka was one of the brightest prospects in women’s tennis. However, In the last few years, she’s been having setbacks on the court. She was in the news many times, discussing racism and mental problems in sports and raising awareness. Sadly, her results have suffered, and she doesn’t seem to be able to move past that and regain her focus. I hope she can use the US Open to recover her status as one of the best tennis players in the world. 

Danielle Rose Collins has been around forever. A real fighter and a fierce competitor, she’s a match for everyone. This year has been tough on her. She has been suffering a multitude of injuries, and she has never regained full fitness. She hasn’t played a match since the middle of July, and I am not sure how ready she will be for this match. The last time Collins played against Osaka, she got dismantled in the Miami WTA quarterfinals, only managing to win three games. They have played two more matches in their career. Naomi Osaka has managed to win both of them relatively easily. I would say this continues. Osaka wins 2:0

Denis Kirilov

Unfortunately for the home fans, they will lose one of their favorites to win the US Open in the first round as Naomi Osaka comes up against Danielle Collins. Osaka, a two-time champion in New York, and a 4-time Grand Slam winner, has been struggling all year long. She has only reached the final in Miami when she was outplayed by Iga Swiatek who was simply unstoppable. Osaka suffered from mental health issues throughout the past year as she comes into the 2022 US Open on a 3-game losing streak. Not winning a set against players like Kaia Kanepi, Coco Gauff, and Shuai Zhang is certainly a concerning fact for their fans. 

On the other hand, Danielle Collins is also out of rhythm lately. The runner-up from this year’s Australian Open hasn’t played since July when she was ousted by Simone Waltert in Lausanne. However, she reached the semifinals at Wimbledon in the Doubles’ tournament, partnering Desirae Krawczyk. Collins is quite relentless on the court with a consistent backhand and a fierce forehand. She is looking for her first win over Naomi Osaka as she is falling back 0-3 so far without winning a set. However, it seems that she might be in better shape at the moment and I will give her the benefit of the doubt. 

Jack Hartman

Is there a better first round match on either side of the men’s or women’s draws than this clash between Danielle Collins and Naomi Osaka? Despite sitting at 44 in the world and struggling for form, Osaka was the one player all of the seeds would have wanted to avoid in the first round. That won’t deter Danielle Collins who is one of the fiercest competitors in the draw, but it’s been a tough season for her. Since reaching the final of the Australian Open, results have been mixed and she has crashed out of the second round at the French Open and lost in the opening round at Wimbledon. 

Plagued by nagging injuries we don’t know how fit Collins will be. The American has missed the entire hard court season due to a neck problem and will be seriously short of competitive match practice. Both players play in a similar style and it will be fascinating to see who comes out on top of the ferocious rallies that are bound to happen. The two have played three times in their careers and Osaka leads the head to head 3-0. Her last victory over Collins came on the hard courts of Miami and I think the two time US Open champion will come out on top again here.

Iga Świątek (1) vs Jasmine Paolini

The world number one kicks off her quest for the US Open with a match against Italian, Jasmine Paolini. Świątek recently played at the Western & Southern Open, where she lost in straight sets in the second round, to American Keys. Paolini last played at the Granby National Bank Championships, and she lost in three sets in the second round.

Aleksandar Ricliev

The number 1 ranked on the WTA rankings – Iga Swiatek, started this year impressively. She won the Miami, Stuttgart, and Rome WTA tournaments. Swiatek also crushed everyone on Ronald Garros and easily won the Grand Slam. Since Roland Garros, she seems to have lost a bit of form and focus, and there were some subpar performances by her standards. She lost to Cornet at Wimbledon, Garcia at Warsaw, and most recently to Keys at Cincinnati. If Swiatek plays her best, I firmly believe she will be the US Open champion. Will she get there? We will have to wait and see.

Jasmine Paolini has had great success recently. She lost in the semifinals of both Warsaw and Palermo WTA. However, Paolini isn’t in this tournament’s upper echelon of contenders. She can surprise some more prominent names, but I don’t think the name of Iga Swiatek belongs in that category. The last time they met, Swiatek won the match in 55 minutes, 6-2, 6-1. Lots of time has passed since then, but I believe Swiatek will start this tournament with a chip on her shoulder. I don’t think Paolini can win more than two games in the first set. Swiatek wins the first set, 6-2. 

Denis Kirilov

Iga Swiatek has been remarkable this year, reaching a 37-game winning streak before losing to Alize Cornet at Wimbledon. Ever since that defeat, she has been struggling to keep up her high intensity work rate. She lost four of her last eight matches at WTA, suffering defeats in the early rounds to the likes of Caroline Garcia, Beatriz Haddad-Maia, and Madison Keys. Swiatek is undoubtedly the most consistent player in WTA this year, but she will need to keep up that pace in order to keep her lead on top of the rankings. The young Polish talent tends to enter her matches slowly and even suffers a break of serve in the opening set. 

On the other hand, Jasmine Paolini relies much on her clay-court performance throughout the season. She reached a career-high World No. 44 back in February as she has now dropped to 56th place. Paolini rarely makes something special on hard courts as she struggled to go past the qualifying rounds in New York for three consecutive years. Her best result is from last year when she defeated Yaroslava Shvedova who used her protective ranking to enter the US Open. Paolini might give Swiatek a hard game in the opening minutes of their match, but I doubt that she will stop the 21-year-old from her pursuit of a third Grand Slam. 

Jack Hartman

After dominating the first half of the season, world number one Iga Swiatek has struggled lately, losing several matches she would have expected to win. The French Open Champion has lost matches to Madison Keys, Caroline Garcia and Beatriz Haddad Maia in recent weeks and heads to Flushing Meadows with a few questions to answer. Despite the recent losses, Swiatek is still very much the one to beat, and if she can recapture the form that saw her win on the hard courts of both Indian Wells and Miami she will be unbelievably hard to stop.

Swiatek has been handed a comfortable first round draw and shouldn’t have any issues in swatting Jasmine Paolini away. The Italian is one of the smallest players on the WTA Tour but can still give the ball an almighty whack. The one area that will come under severe pressure is her serve. Her main weakness, Swiatek should have no problems handling it and is bound to create numerous breakpoint opportunities throughout the match. Paolini will fight all the way but this is a match where she will have her work severely cut out. This is a match where value is hard to find, but Swiatek should make swift work of her opponent and I will back her to only lose a single game in set one.

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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.