Free NFL Picks Today: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons 10/9/22

Free NFL Picks Today: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons 10/9/22
Sun 9th October 2022

The Atlanta Falcons (2-2, 1-1 Away) travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2, 0-2 Home) at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. The Buccaneers are 10-point favorites, and the total is 46.5. Atlanta is coming off a narrow 23-20 win over the Cleveland Browns at Mercedes-Benz Stadium last Sunday. Marcus Mariota was 7 of 19 for 139 yards and an interception. Tyler Allgeier ran 10 times for 84 yards. Olamide Zaccheaus caught two passes for 55 yards. Tampa Bay lost 41-31 to the Kansas City Chiefs at Raymond James Stadium last Sunday. Tom Brady threw for 385 yards and three touchdowns. Mike Evans added two touchdowns of his own. He was targeted 10 times, hauling in eight receptions for 103 yards.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

The Buccaneers won both games between the teams last season, including a 30-17 win in their last meeting in December, their fourth straight win against Atlanta. Tom Brady threw four touchdowns for Tampa Bay.

TALE OF THE TAPE

The Falcons are averaging 25.8 points per game so far this season, eighth in the NFL, and they are facing a Buccaneers defense that has surrendered 17.0 PPG (5th). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has scored 20.5 points a game this season, 16th in the league, and Atlanta is allowing 25.3 PPG (25th). The Falcons rank as one of the league’s top teams in rushing yards per game (168.0, 4th), while they are 28th in passing yards (194.8). The Buccaneers are 15th in passing yards allowed per game (234.5) and 12th against the run (106.8). Tampa Bay has been one of the league’s least productive rushing teams, averaging 65.3 yards per game (31st), while ranking 11th in passing yards (264.5). The Falcons are allowing 275.0 passing yards (25th) and 126.3 rushing yards per game (21st).Tampa Bay ranks as the one of the lowest volume red zone offenses in the NFL, advancing inside the 20-yard-line only 2.2 times per game (33rd) and scoring a touchdown on 67% of those possessions (6th).

TOP PERFORMERS

Through four games, Marcus Mariota has thrown for three touchdowns (4 INT) and 194.8 yards per game to lead Atlanta in passing. In two away games this season, he has three TDs (3 INT) and an average of 212.5 yards passing. Cordarrelle Patterson leads the team in rushing with an average of 85.0 yards a game over four games. He has three touchdowns on the ground. Drake London is the Falcons’ leading receiver with 57.8 yards a game and two TDs. He is averaging 4.5 receptions on 8.0 targets per game. Tom Brady has six passing touchdowns (1 INT) with 264.5 yards per game through four games to lead Tampa Bay. In two home games this season, he has thrown for four TDs and an average of 328.0 yards. Leonard Fournette has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 56.0 yards a game through four games. His only touchdown has come through the air (1). Mike Evans has been a key target in the Buccaneers’ passing game. He has three touchdowns and a 78.3 yard per game average through three appearances. Mike Evans is averaging 7.0 targets per game (5.3 receptions).

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

TB Bucs (-450)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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