The Denver Nuggets (3-1) are one win away from the title as they prepare to play host to the Miami Heat (1-3) in NBA Finals Game 5.
Denver beat Miami 108-95 at FTX Arena in Friday’s Game 4. Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets with 27 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists. Jimmy Butler had 24 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists in the loss.
The Heat have been led this season by Butler, who is averaging 24.0 points per game. Butler also has dished 5.5 assists per game. Meanwhile, Bam Adebayo is grabbing 9.4 rebounds.
Jokic’s 25.4 points per game have powered the Nuggets on offense. Jokic has also filled the stat sheet with 12.0 rebounds and 9.7 assists per game, for which he ranks third and third in the league, respectively.
Half-court execution will likely be the difference in this matchup that features a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams, as the Heat are 29th in possessions per game while the Nuggets are 26th. The Heat are 3-7 in their last 10 games at Ball Arena.
In the last 10 games, Miami is 4-6 with an average margin of -1.6 (103.4-105.0). For the season, the Heat is averaging 109.3 points per game, compared to 109.2 for opponents.
Denver has a 9-1 record over the last 10, scoring 114.4 points per game on average while allowing 104.3 (+10.1 margin). The Nuggets are averaging 115.5 ppg for the full season while allowing 111.2.
HEAT HOT/COLD
(Last Five | Season Average | Differential)
Points per game:
Max Strus: 5.0 | 11.2 | -6.2
Rebounds per game:
Bam Adebayo: 12.0 | 9.4 | +2.6
NUGGETS HOT/COLD
(Last Five | Season Average | Differential)
Points + Rebounds + Assists:
Thomas Bryant: 0.0 | 15.8 | -15.8
Points per game:
Michael Porter Jr.: 9.4 | 16.4 | -7.0
Rebounds per game:
Michael Porter Jr.: 7.8 | 6.0 | +1.8
Assists per game:
Jamal Murray: 9.4 | 6.4 | +3.0
SportsTips’ NBA Pick:
Denver Nuggets -8.5 (-115)
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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.
