Free MLB Picks Today: Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins 6/11/23

The strikeout-prone Minnesota Twins (33-32) will have their work cut out for them at Rogers Centre on Sunday against the Toronto Blue Jays (36-30) and Kevin Gausman, owner of this season’s best K/9 rate, with the visitors in position for a sweep of the three-game series.

The Twins lead the series 2-0 after winning 9-4 on Saturday, their third head-to-head victory in five games this season. Jorge Lopez threw one scoreless inning of relief to get the win.

Max Kepler was 2 for 4 with a home run and three RBIs in the win. Edouard Julien added a double and one run. Whit Merrifield went 2 for 3 with one run and one RBI for the Blue Jays. Brandon Belt added a double and one run.

ON THE MOUND

Louie Varland (3-2, 4.40 ERA) is in line for the start for Minnesota. The RHP allowed seven runs over six innings in his last start, a 7-0 home defeat against the Rays on Tuesday. He was charged with the loss, yielding six hits while striking out five and walking four.

Varland has made one previous start against the Blue Jays this season, a 3-1 home loss on May 26. He surrendered three runs on seven hits over six innings, striking out three.

For Toronto, RHP Gausman (5-3, 2.63 ERA) will toe the rubber. He has made one prior start against the Twins this season, giving up one run over 5.1 innings in a 3-1 road win on May 26. He gave up four hits and walked five while striking out eight in the win.

In his last start on Tuesday, Gausman got the win at home against the Astros. He threw seven innings and gave up one run on four hits, striking out 13, in the 5-1 victory. The right-hander leads the AL in strikeouts (113).

AT THE PLATE

Over the last five games, Minnesota has averaged only 3.0 runs a game, down from their season average of 4.3, while slashing worse across the board (.190/.227/.339). Against right-handed pitchers like Gausman this season, the Twins have a .711 OPS.

Joey Gallo has been the team’s biggest slugger against right-handers with a .509 SLG in 146 at-bats. Toronto is averaging only 3.4 runs per game in the last five, down from 4.6 for the season, with their slash line falling across the board (.208/.307/.364).

The Jays have a .765 OPS against right-handers in 2023, the fifth highest in MLB. With a .858 OPS over 231 at-bats, Bo Bichette has been their best hitter against right-handers.

HOME AND AWAY

Minnesota is 15-18 on the road in 2023, scoring 4.1 runs per game while allowing 3.7 runs. Toronto has gone 18-13 at their home ballpark this season, averaging 4.1 runs per game while surrendering 3.7.

In the last 10 games at Rogers Centre between the teams, Minnesota is 7-3 with an average scoreline of 5.6-4.2.