Free MLB Picks Today: Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros 5/5/23

Free MLB Picks Today: Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros 5/5/23
Fri 5th May 2023

Luis Castillo, one of this season’s stingiest pitchers, leads the way for the Seattle Mariners (15-16) as they host the Houston Astros (16-15) at T-Mobile Park on Friday for the opener of a three-game series. The Astros are playing their first of nine games on the road after wrapping up a rough six-game homestand (2-4).

They won only one out of three in their last series against the Giants, dropping the finale 4-2 on Wednesday at Minute Maid Park. Alex Bregman was 1 for 4 with a home run and two RBIs. The Mariners are back home for a six-game homestand after returning from a nine-game road trip (5-4).

They are coming off a three-game sweep of the Athletics, taking the finale 5-3 on Thursday at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum for their fourth straight win. Taylor Trammell went 1 for 2 with a home run and three RBIs.

The teams are meeting for the first time since 2022 American League Divisional Playoffs, which the Astros won in three games. The Astros won the regular season series between the AL West rivals (12-7), including a sweep in their most recent three-game set at T-Mobile Park in October.

ON THE MOUND

Cristian Javier (2-1, 3.48 ERA) is set to start for Houston. The right-hander allowed three runs over 5.2 innings in his last start, a 6-1 road defeat against the Phillies on Saturday. He was charged with the loss, giving up seven hits while striking out six and walking one.

Over two starts against the Mariners in 2022, Javier was 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA over nine innings. He had eight strikeouts and three walks. For Seattle, RHP Castillo (2-0, 1.82 ERA) takes the mound.

In his last start on April 28, Castillo took a no-decision on the road against the Blue Jays. He threw five innings and gave up two runs on six hits, striking out four and walking two in the 3-2 loss. The righty ranks third in the AL in ERA.

AT THE PLATE

The Houston offense is averaging 4.4 runs per game for the season, with a slash line of .243/.313/.367. Yordan Alvarez leads the team in OPS at .916. The center fielder is slashing .264/.387/.529 with six home runs, 27 RBIs, and 15 runs over 25 games.

Over the last five games, however, Houston has averaged only 2.8 runs a game while slashing worse across the board (.208/.254/.302). Against right-handed pitchers like Castillo this season, the ‘Stros have a .665 OPS. Alvarez also is the team’s most productive hitter against right-handers with a .845 OPS in 56 at-bats.

Seattle is slashing .215/.297/.376 for the season and averaging 4.3 runs per game. Jarred Kelenic leads the team with a .988 OPS. The right fielder has seven home runs, 15 RBIs, and 14 runs scored with a slash line of .309/.371/.617.

The M’s have a .672 OPS against right-handers in 2023. With a .929 OPS over 73 at-bats, Kelenic also has been their best hitter against right-handers.

HOME AND AWAY

Houston is 8-4 away from home in 2023, scoring 4.8 runs per game while allowing 3.3 runs. Seattle has gone 7-9 in front of their home fans this season, averaging 4.3 runs per game while surrendering 4.1. In the last 10 games at T-Mobile Park between the teams, Houston is 6-4 despite an average scoreline favoring Seattle (3.9-2.7).

STANDINGS UPDATE

The Astros are third in the AL West, two games behind the division-leading Rangers. The Mariners are fourth in the AL West, four games behind the Rangers.

SportsTips’ MLB Pick:

Seattle Mariners (-135)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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