Free MLB Picks Today: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5/21/23

Free MLB Picks Today: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5/21/23
Sun 21st May 2023

Hot-hitting Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be looking to extend his 10-game hitting streak as the Arizona Diamondbacks (26-20) match up against the Pittsburgh Pirates (24-21) at PNC Park on Sunday with the three-game series tied at 1-1.

The Diamondbacks evened up the series 1-1 after winning 4-3 on Saturday. Reliever Kyle Nelson was credited with the win after throwing one scoreless inning, and Miguel Castro struck out the side in the ninth to earn his fourth save.

Ketel Marte was 2 for 4 with a solo home run in the win, extending his on-base streak to 20 games. Carlos Santana went 1 for 3 with one run for the Pirates.

ON THE MOUND

Merrill Kelly (4-3, 3.18 ERA) is set to get the start for Arizona. The righty allowed two runs (one earned) over seven innings in his last start, a 5-2 road win over the Athletics on Monday. He earned the win, yielding four hits while striking out nine and walking one.

Kelly is making his first appearance against the Pirates this season. Over two starts against the Pirates in 2022, Kelly was 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA over 10 innings. He had eight strikeouts and seven walks. Righty Roansy Contreras (3-4, 4.40 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh.

It’s his first appearance of the season against the Diamondbacks. Contreras made one start against the Diamondbacks in 2022, throwing 5.2 innings in a 2-1 home win on June 4.

He gave up four hits and walked two, while striking out eight in the no-decision. In his last start on May 13, Contreras took the loss on the road against the Orioles. He threw seven innings and gave up two runs on five hits, striking out one and walking one in the 2-0 defeat.

AT THE PLATE

Over the last five games, Arizona has averaged 5.0 runs a game, equal to their season average. Against righties like Contreras this season, the D-backs have a .780 OPS, fourth highest in the league.

Gurriel Jr. is the team’s strongest hitter against right-handers with a .951 OPS in 97 at-bats. Pittsburgh is averaging 5.6 runs per game in the last five, up from 4.4 for the season, with a stronger on-base percentage (.340 vs .326).

The Bucs have a .704 OPS against right-handers in 2023. With a .949 OPS over 85 at-bats, Jack Suwinski has been their best hitter against right-handers.

HOME AND AWAY

Arizona is 12-10 away from Chase Field in 2023, scoring 5.0 runs per game while allowing 5.6 runs. Pittsburgh has gone 11-10 at home this season, averaging 4.1 runs per game while surrendering 4.7.

The teams have split their last 10 meetings head-to-head at PNC Park, though Arizona has the scoring advantage with an average final margin of 4.4-4.1.

STANDINGS UPDATE

The Diamondbacks are second in the NL West, three games behind the division-leading Dodgers. The Pirates lead the NL Central by zero games over the Pirates.

SportsTips’ MLB Pick:

Arizona Diamondbacks (-125)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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