Free MLB Picks Today: Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves 6/21/23

The Philadelphia Phillies (38-35) host the Atlanta Braves (47-26) at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday. The Braves took Tuesday’s series opener 4-2, their seventh straight victory overall and third in five games against the Phillies this season.

Spencer Strider went six innings, allowing one run on eight hits and striking out nine, to get the win, and Raisel Iglesias pitched the ninth to earn his 10th save.

Eddie Rosario was 2 for 2 with a double and one run in the win. Brandon Marsh went 3 for 4 with a double and one run for the Phillies.

ON THE MOUND

AJ Smith-Shawver (1-0, 2.03 ERA) is set to start for Atlanta. The RHP allowed three runs over 5.2 innings in his last start, an 8-3 road win over the Rockies on Thursday. He was credited with the win, giving up six hits while striking out six and walking one.

For Philadelphia, right-hander Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.66 ERA) will toe the rubber. He has made one prior start against the Braves this season, giving up five runs over six innings in an 8-5 road defeat on May 25.

He gave up eight hits and walked two while striking out seven in the no-decision. In his last start on Thursday, Nola got the win on the road against the Diamondbacks. He threw 6.2 innings and gave up four runs on six hits, striking out nine and walking one in the 5-4 triumph.

AT THE PLATE

Over the last five games, Atlanta has averaged 8.8 runs a game, up from their season average of 5.5, while performing better across the board (.341/.418/.636).

Against right-handed pitchers like Nola this season, the Braves have a .789 OPS, second highest in the league. Ronald Acuna Jr. is the team’s most productive hitter against right-handers with a .955 OPS in 226 at-bats.

Philadelphia is averaging only 3.8 runs per game in the last five, down slightly from 4.4 for the season. The Phils have a .752 OPS against right-handers in 2023. With a .378 OBP over 198 at-bats, Marsh has their highest on-base percentage against right-handers.

HOME AND AWAY

Atlanta is on a three-game winning streak in road games, bringing their record to 23-11 in 2023. The Braves have scored 5.4 runs per game away from home while allowing 3.4 runs.

Philadelphia has gone 19-12 at home this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game while surrendering 3.9. Philadelphia is 6-4 in the last 10 games between the NL East rivals at Citizens Bank Park with an average scoreline of 5.5-3.5.