Free MLB Picks Today: Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs 7/5/23

The Milwaukee Brewers (46-40) face a tough test against Justin Steele at American Family Field on Wednesday when the impressive left-hander takes the mound for the Chicago Cubs (39-45).

The Cubs leveled the series 1-1 after winning 7-6 in 11 innings on Tuesday, their second head-to-head victory in five games this season. Reliever Daniel Palencia was credited with the win after throwing two scoreless innings.

Seiya Suzuki was 2 for 4 with a triple and one run in the win. Willy Adames went 1 for 4 with a double and one RBI for the Brewers.

ON THE MOUND

Steele (9-2, 2.43 ERA) is set to take the mound for Chicago. The LHP leads MLB in ERA. He also ranks fourth in the NL in wins. Steele threw 6.1 scoreless innings in his last start, a 10-1 road win over the Guardians on Friday.

He earned the win, scattering three hits while striking out six and walking one. Steele has made one previous start against the Brewers this season, a 3-1 home loss on April 1.

He allowed three hits over six scoreless innings, striking out eight and walking one. For Milwaukee, righty Adrian Houser (3-2, 3.88 ERA) will toe the rubber. It’s his first appearance of the season against the Cubs.

Houser made one start against the Cubs in 2022, throwing six innings in an 11-1 home win on April 29. He gave up two hits and walked three while striking out six in the win.

In his last start on Thursday, Houser got the win on the road against the Mets. He threw six innings and gave up two runs on seven hits, striking out five and walking one in the 3-2 victory.

AT THE PLATE

Over the last five games, Chicago has averaged 5.8 runs a game, up from their season average of 4.6, due in part to increased slugging (.402 vs .398). Against right-handed pitchers like Houser this season, the Cubs have a .713 OPS.

Ian Happ is the team’s most potent producer against right-handers with a .826 OPS in 217 at-bats. Milwaukee is averaging 7.6 runs per game in the last five, up from 4.2 for the season, with an improved slash line (.274/.350/.402).

The Brew Crew have a .656 OPS against lefties in 2023, the lowest in the league. With a .966 OPS over 69 at-bats, Joey Wiemer has been their best hitter against left-handers.

HOME AND AWAY

Chicago is 18-23 away from Wrigley Field in 2023, scoring 4.6 runs per game while allowing 4.4 runs. Milwaukee has gone 23-19 at American Family Field this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game while surrendering 4.4.

The NL Central rivals have split their last 10 games head-to-head at American Family Field, though Milwaukee has the scoring advantage with an average final margin of 5.1-3.9.