Free MLB Picks Today: Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs 4/30/23

Justin Steele, one of this season’s stingiest pitchers, is set to take the mound for the Chicago Cubs (14-12) as they match up against the Miami Marlins (15-13) at loanDepot park on Sunday with the home team in position to sweep the three-game series.

The Marlins lead the series 2-0 after winning 7-6 on Saturday. Starter Edward Cabrera got the win, allowing two runs on three hits over five innings and striking out 12, and Tanner Scott earned his second save with a scoreless ninth.

Luis Arraez went 3 for 4 with two runs in the win. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also went 3 for 4 with a double, one run, and two RBIs. Patrick Wisdom was 2 for 3 with a home run and two RBIs for the Cubs.

ON THE MOUND

Steele (4-0, 1.19 ERA) is set for the start for Chicago. The LHP leads the NL in ERA and is tied for first in wins. Steele threw 5.1 scoreless innings in his last start, a 6-0 road win over the Padres on Tuesday. He was credited with the win, scattering three hits while striking out five and walking two.

Steele is making his first appearance against the Marlins this season. Steele made one start against the Marlins in 2022, a 2-1 home victory on August 5. He allowed four hits over 4.2 scoreless innings, striking out 10 and walking one.

RHP Bryan Hoeing (0-1, 9.82 ERA) is on the mound for Miami. It’s his first appearance of the season against the Cubs. Hoeing made one appearance against the Cubs in 2022, throwing one innings in a 10-3 home win on September 19.

He didn’t give up a hit and struck out one.In his last start on Tuesday, Hoeing took the loss on the road against the Braves. He threw 3.2 innings and gave up four runs on six hits, striking out two and walking two in the 7-4 defeat.

AT THE PLATE

Over the last five games, Chicago has averaged only 4.4 runs a game, down from their season average of 5.5, due in part to declining on-base performance (.342 vs .345). Against righties like Hoeing this season, the Cubs have a .787 OPS, fourth highest in MLB.

Ian Happ is the team’s best performer against right-handers with a 1.068 OPS in 64 at-bats. Miami is averaging 4.6 runs per game in the last five, up from 3.4 for the season, with a better slash line (.274/.330/.405). The Fish have a .778 OPS against lefties in 2023. With a .330 OPS over 23 at-bats, Chisholm Jr. has been their best hitter against left-handers.

HOME AND AWAY

Chicago is 6-4 on the road in 2023, scoring 6.4 runs per game while allowing 3.1 runs. Miami has gone 9-6 at home this season, averaging 2.9 runs per game while surrendering 3.7. Miami is 6-4 in the last 10 games at loanDepot park between the teams with an average scoreline of 4.7-4.2.

STANDINGS UPDATE

The Cubs are third in the NL Central, three games behind the division-leading Pirates. The Marlins are third in the NL East, four games behind the Braves.