Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five best games on today’s schedule!
Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays – 3.07PM ET
We will kick off the first game of this Monday’s MLB schedule in Canada, as the Blue Jays are set to host the Indians at Rogers Stadium for what will be the first match of a four game series between these two American League teams.
Although they are still an average 25-22 at home this season, Toronto are 3-0 at home since returning to Rogers Stadium and they are three games into a 12 game homestand on their home field. With that in mind, I am going to take the Blue Jays at home for this series opener. Toronto are 4-0 in their last four games and although Cleveland have maintained second place in their division with a near .500 record, the Indians injury list is too extensive for them to be considered as contenders in 2021, as is reflected by their 6-14 record from their last 20 games against above .500 opponents. The Blue Jays are the vastly superior offense in this matchup and seeing as Robbie Ray (9-5, 3.04 ERA) will give them an advantage at the mound over Eli Morgan (1-3, 7.47 ERA), I like Toronto to win and cover on Monday afternoon.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-146)
The Blue Jays have returned home to Toronto and it has paid dividends through three games so far. They swept a series with the extremely in-form Royals, scoring 10 more runs than them across the three games. They now host a Cleveland side that has lost six of their last nine games, has a negative run differential, is 25-28 on the road and also 20-34 against teams above 0.500 for the season. Things don’t get any easier for Cleveland given they are starting Eli Morgan, who is 1-3 this season with a massive ERA of 7.47. That should allow Toronto, who has a top five offensive lineup this season, to dominate from the jump.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -2.5 (-102)
The Blue Jays seem to be on a roll at the moment, they have won four games in a row. Whereas, the Indians had a tough 1-2 series loss to the White Sox. Also, the Indians have won just one of their previous seven games playing a team in the AL East. They have won none of their previous five when it comes to the first game of a series, and they have won just six of their previous 21 games when playing a team with a winning record. On the flip side, the Blue Jays are really struggling on Mondays, and they haven’t won any of their previous six games on Monday. They have also won just two of their previous seven when it comes to the first game of a series, and finally they have won just four of their previous 13 games when playing a team with a winning record. The stats are pretty similar, but I like the look of the Blue Jays, as they are on a hot streak at the moment.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-146)
Home sWWWeep home 🇨🇦
This is how we WAVE goodnight 😉 pic.twitter.com/Q5AH73cKqx
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) August 2, 2021
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees – 7.05PM ET
A pair of AL East rivals will commence their three game series in New York on Monday night, as the third placed Yankees prepare to host the last placed Orioles for their series opener at Yankee Stadium.
Seeing as Jorgre Lopez will be taking the mound for Baltimore, I would usually be inclined to take New York at home in this matchup. However, I am going to take the Orioles to cover as underdogs on the road on Monday, as the Yankees are sending the recently acquired Andrew Heaney to the mound. Heaney has a 6-7 record and 5.27 ERA from 18 starts with the Angels in 2021 and the right hander has allowed 10 runs in 16.2 innings against Baltimore this year. As well as that, New York are still struggling offensively in 2021 and the poorly named Bronx Bombers have scored four runs or fewer in each of their last 11 starts. Runs shouldn’t be hard to come by against either of these starters and I like Baltimore to keep this one close.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (+112)
This is a tough one as the Yankees are clearly the better team and their offensive firepower is much better than what Baltimore has on offer, but the pitching choice in the series opener makes it tough. Andrew Heaney, who was just picked up from the Angels, will make his Yankees debut in this one and they’ll be hoping he can turn things around. He had a 6-7 record with a 5.27 ERA for the Angels and that may be trouble against a Baltimore side that has scored 5+ runs in five of their last nine games. Even more so given that the Yankees haven’t scored five runs in their last 10 games, despite the big name hitters that they have. However, Baltimore still has Jorge Lopez starting for them and he may be even worse than Heaney, putting up a 2-12 record with an ERA of 6.19. He has even given up 11 runs to the Yankees in just 10.2 innings pitched, which should allow New York, at home, to take advantage.
Tim’s MLB Pick: New York Yankees / Over 9.5 (+160)
The Yankees have won three games in a row and they are now 6.5 games behind the AL East leaders, and the Orioles are a mammoth 25.5 behind the AL East leaders. There aren’t a lot of stats that help support the Orioles, they have just won 82 of their previous 262 games on the road, and only 16 of their previous 51 games on Monday. Whereas, the Yankees have won four of their previous four games at home. The Orioles have won just 17 of the previous 56 clashes in New York. The Yankees should be able to get the victory easily.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (-134)
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays 7.10PM ET
Two American League teams with legitimate playoff aspirations will kick off their three game midweek series in Florida on Monday night, as the Rays host the Mariners at Tropicana Field.
Seeing as Seattle recently dropped two of their three games against the Rangers in Texas, I cannot see them competing with the in-form Rays in Tampa Bay on Monday night. In what was a damning weekend for the Mariners playoff chances, Seattle failed to do what they have successfully done all season and that is win the close games, as each of the Mariners losses on the weekend came by just one run. Now that they are coming up against the Rays at home with Michael Wacha at the mound, I can’t see Seattle winning this series opener. Tampa Bay are 5-1 in Wacha’s last six starts at Tropicana Field. As well as that, Nelson Cruz is continuing to fire in the Rays new look lineup and I like him to continue his solid form on Monday night.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (-162)
Tampa Bay are coming off a three-game series sweep over the Red Sox and now host the Mariners. That is some incredible form that the Rays bring into this one, especially given that the Mariners have just dropped two straight to the lowly Rangers. If Seattle is going to continue playing like that on the road, Tampa Bay should be able to comfortably take care of business in this one. However, Seattle has Chris Flexen starting for them and he is 9-5 with a 3.81 ERA from 19 starts this season. The Mariners will be hoping that he can help turn things around for them, especially given Michael Wacha is starting for the Rays, who is just 2-2 with an ERA of 4.79 from 18 appearances, 13 of which were starts. While Tampa Bay has the lesser starting pitcher for this clash, they have all the momentum and batting power to win this at home.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays / Over 8.5 (+210)
The Rays have won three in a row, whereas the Mariners have lost two in a row. The Mariners have a pretty decent record as of late, they have won all four of their previous games on Monday and have won four of their previous five when it comes to the first game of the series. Looking now at the Rays, they have won 38 of their previous 51 games on Monday, and have won 16 of their previous 22 games overall. I’ll be backing the Rays for this one, but I’ll also be on the over as well. The over has hit in the previous five Mariners games overall and has hit five times in the previous seven Rays’ home games.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays / Over 8.5 (+210)
RAYS LEGEND NELSON CRUZ pic.twitter.com/dFZLHEsNQQ
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) July 25, 2021
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers – 8.05PM ET
The Los Angeles Angels will continue to stay relevant in the AL West on Monday night, as they look to make up some ground on their division leaders in this series against the last placed Rangers in Texas.
As the Rangers recently won a pair of home games against the division’s third placed Mariners, this series is not as easy to pick as it would’ve been prior to the weekend. However, I am still going to take the Angels on the road for Monday’s series opener. Texas’ two wins over the weekend were both thanks to walk-off runs after trailing midway through the ninth and I can’t see them being as fortunate against Los Angeles on Monday, especially with Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Although he has struggled on the road this season, Ohtani has a 5-1 record and 3.04 ERA this year and his Angels are 7-1 from their last eight road games against below .500 teams. As well as that, Los Angeles’ playoff chances are on the line almost every night and they need to win games like this to stay alive in 2021.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Angels (TBD)
While Texas has one of the worst records in the league (38-67, 0.362), they are actually 25-27 at home and are coming off a 2-1 series win over the Mariners. Meanwhile, the Angels are coming off a 3-1 series loss to the A’s, where they were outscored 14-4. However, Shohei Ohtani is starting on the mound for LA and he brings a 5-1 record plus a 3.04 ERA. His class and power should be more than good enough to help stifle the Rangers offense that is bottom five in the league. I think LA will be able to get on top due to Ohtani’s ability, plus the fact that Dane Dunning is starting for Texas who is just 4-7 with a 4.20 ERA from 19 starts. To add to that, Dunning has pitched to the Angels twice so far in his career and he is 0-2 with a massive 11.00 ERA in those games. It may be close, and this is very uninspiring but the Angels should have the edge.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Angels (TBD)
The team bottom teams of the AL West, with the Angels 11.5 games behind the leaders and the Rangers a massive 25.5 games behind. The Angels have won just one of their previous seven division games, but they have won all six of their previous games when playing a team with a win percentage below .400. Meanwhile, the Rangers have won just 16 of their previous 56 games overall and just three of their previous 12 games played on Monday. I’ll be on the Angels to get the victory on Monday!
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Angels (TBD)
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers – 8.10PM ET
A pair of NL Central rivals will close out our Monday night MLB schedule when the first placed Milwaukee Brewers host the last placed Pittsburgh Pirates for the first match of their three game series at American Family Field.
Seeing as the Pirates will enter this series with a 21 and a half game deficit between themselves and the division leading Brewers, I cannot rationalise picking Pittsburgh in Milwaukee on Monday night. The Brewers will be returning home after a six game road trip that saw them finish with a 5-1 record, including a three game series sweep over the Pirates, and now that they are back in Milwaukee with Eric Lauer on the mound, it is hard to go past the NL Central leaders. Despite his 3-4 record, Lauer has a 3.78 ERA in 2021 and the southpaw has allowed just three earned runs in his last three home starts, throwing 17 innings in that time.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (-230)
These two sides faced each other seven times in July, all in Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee went 6-1 in those games. Now that they get home for this clash, I like the Brewers to come out on top, especially given they are seven games clear on top of the NL Central and 22.5 better off than the Pirates. Bryse Wilson will get his first start for the Pirates, after being acquired at the deadline from the Braves, and he has gone just 2.83 with a 4.83 ERA this season. That should allow Milwaukee, who have an average offense, to get enough on the board to let their bullpen take care of business. Eric Lauer will start for the Brewers, who are top two in ERA and average as well as fourth in WHIP. That should be too much for the Pirates and their lacklustre batting lineup to deal with in a comfortable victory for the home team.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-114)
The top of the NL Central team, the Brewers, will take on the bottom of the NL Central team, the Pirates. The Pirates are 22.5 games behind the Brewers and have been massively struggling all season. The Pirates have won just 24 of their previous 88 games on the road and 15 of their previous 52 games on a Monday. Meanwhile the Brewers have won only two of their previous eight games at home, but have won 39 of their previous 57 games overall. While the Brewers seem to be struggling as of late playing at home, they shouldn’t have any trouble convincingly beating the Pirates tonight.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-114)
Won 5 of 6 on the road 😤 pic.twitter.com/vkYlCQftC6
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) August 1, 2021
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel