Our free MLB Picks are out for Friday, September 10th, 2021! Make sure you check our MLB Picks before the action kicks off.
Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five best games on today’s schedule!
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles – 7.05PM ET
The Baltimore Orioles have actually won four of their last six games but now host the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays. While Baltimore’s recent form looks good, Toronto’s is even better with eight straight wins, including four straight in Yankee Stadium to start this week.
If the Yankees couldn’t stop the Blue Jays, I’m giving the Orioles no chance. Especially given Toronto is starting Robbie Ray, arguably their best starting pitcher. From his 27 starts this season, Ray is 11-5 with a 2.60 ERA while through his last seven he is 2-0 with an incredible 1.51 ERA. In 47.2 innings of work in those seven games, he has allowed just eight earned runs while recording 62 strikeouts, which is astonishing. Considering he is going up against a batting lineup that is in the bottom 10 in the majors for both OPS and runs this season, this could get ugly. The interesting aspect of this game is that Baltimore is starting Chris Ellis, who has featured in just four games this season, with three of those being starts. Three of those games have been for Baltimore, after starting the year in Tampa Bay, and in those three games he has allowed just four runs in 12.2 innings. Those are impressive numbers and he could restrict the Blue Jays early, but they are too good across the board to be kept quiet throughout an entire game and should comfortably win yet again.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -2 (-145)
— MLB (@MLB) September 10, 2021
The Blue Jays face off against the Orioles in a four game series. The Blue Jays are coming off a mammoth 4-0 series win against the Yankees, and are now on an impressive eight game winning streak. The Orioles on the other hand, are coming off a 2-2 series tie with the Royals, and have won four of their previous eight games. The Blue Jays have won all five of their previous matches on the roald and have won four out of their previous five when it comes to the first game of the series. The Orioles have won just 22 of their previous 70 games at home and only 30 of their previous 107 games overall. The Blue Jays are looking in form to win the match, especially considering they have won nine of their previous 11 clashes in Baltimore and 39 of their previous 57 meetings with the Orioles overall. I’ll also be looking at the under as well, the under has hit in all four of the Blue Jays previous matches, and in six of the Orioles previous eight matches overall.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays / Under (-187)
After dominating the Yankees in 4 straight games, the Blue Jays are in the midst of an 8 game winning streak. The Blue Jays batting unit and pitchers have been firing on all cylinders with 6 games in a row where they have won by 2 runs or more. In fact the Blue Jays haven’t scored less than 5 runs since their loss to the Orioles 9 games ago. In this matchup against the Orioles, the red-hot Blue Jays should dominate as they sit just half a game behind the Yankees and 1 game behind the Red Sox in the AL East division. As they fight for a playoff spot, the Blue Jays will be starting their best pitcher Robbie Ray. Ray has a 2.60 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, while also throwing 212 strikeouts in 166 innings. Ray has been incredibly good. In fact in his last game, Ray had 10 strikeouts and allowed no runs in 6 innings. The Orioles 25th ranked batting group should struggle. Thus, I am going with the Blue Jays to win their 9th in a row by a big margin
Mike’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -2 (-145)
New York Yankees @ New York Mets – 7.10PM ET
The Battle of New York takes place this weekend and the New York Mets will be loving the timing. They host the New York Yankees who have lost six straight games, all at home, and now have to travel across town to take on their Big Apple rivals.
While the Yankees have lost six straight and are out of form, their last four games have come against the hottest team in baseball. Plus, it isn’t like the Mets are setting the world on fire either, given they have dropped four of their last six games and were playing teams with a combined record of 0.419. Neither team is playing baseball that inspires me to pick them, but when looking at the starting pitchers, the Yankees have the edge.
Jordan Montgomery may only have a 5-5 record with a 3.47 ERA this season but over his last seven games, he is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA. Over those seven games he has allowed just seven runs across 35 innings of work. That is incredible and he should give the Yankees a good head start in this clash. Especially when the Mets are starting Tylor Megill who is 1-4 with a 6.37 ERA over his last seven games and has given up 13 runs over 14.2 innings in his last three games. The difference in the recent form of those two starting pitchers is more than enough for me to have some renewed confidence in the Yankees tonight.
This will be the first game of a three game series between the Yankees and the Mets. The Yankees are really struggling as of late, and have lost six games in a row, two to the Orioles and four to the Blue Jays. The Mets are coming off a 1-2 series loss to the Marlins. The Yankees have won all five of their previous games on a Friday, and have won all eight of their previous interleague games. The Mets have won five of their previous seven interleague games and four of their previous 13 when it comes to the first game of a series. The Yankees have been terrible as of late, but this might just be the game where they can find their feet again and with Montgomery, who is performing well recently, they can get the job done.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: New York Yankees (-125)
After 6 humiliating losses in a row, the Yankees look to bounce back in this New York City Derby against the Mets. The Yankees’ losing streak includes 2 losses to the Orioles, who have been the worst team in baseball this season. They will be taking on a Mets team that has been above average this season with 70-wins. The Mets are all but out of playoff contention, while the Yankees fight for a Wild Card spot. The Yankees have so much to play for in a crucial game. In this matchup the Yankees will be starting Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery has been good this year with a 3.47 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. However, Montgomery’s record has been less than stellar with just 5 wins in 25 starts. The Mets will start Tyler Megill. In limited playing time Megill has a 4.20 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, equating to a 2-4 record. On paper the Yankees should win, however their poor form recently is certainly worrying. That being said, I’m still picking the Yankees to win by at least 2.
Mike’s MLB Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (+135)
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros – 8.10PM ET
The Houston Astros host the Los Angeles Angels and both sides will want to turn things around after losing last time out. Houston have been playing well at home lately while the Angels have lost three of their last four, but are starting Shohei Ohtani in this one and that means anything is possible.
Could Ohtani lead the Angels to the upset tonight? His 20 games this season has seen him go 9-1 with a 2.97 ERA and he has only improved as the season has gone on. In his last seven, Ohtani is 5-0 with an incredible 2.20 ERA. However, as impressive as those numbers are, he does struggle on the road. In nine starts on the road, Ohtani is just 3-1 with a lacklustre 4.25 ERA. Given Houston are a top three batting lineup, they should be able to capitalize on that. The Astros have scored 5+ runs in their last four games in Minute Maid Park and have scored the second most runs across the league this season. What should help them even more is that Framber Valdez is starting, who is 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA at home and has allowed just one run in his last two home games, across 13 innings of work. This looks like a Houston victory to me.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Houston Astros (-210)
Jake Meyers – Houston Astros (4) pic.twitter.com/d5JQAHxFL6
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) September 7, 2021
It’s the first of a three game series between the Angels and the Astros. The Astros are sitting pretty at the top of the AL West, five and a half games ahead of the Athletics, and 12.5 games ahead of the Angels. The Angels have won nine of their previous 13 games when playing a left handed starter, and they have won 15 of their previous 52 games on a Friday. Looking over to the Astros now, they have won 44 of their previous 63 games on a Friday and have won 18 of their previous 26 against a team in the AL West. Both starting pitchers should be able to do well in this game, but I’m going to give the edge to the Astros, especially considering they are playing at home!
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Houston Astros (-210)
The Shohei Ohtani-led Angels take on the Houston Astros in a game that should see Ohtani pitch against one of the most fierce batting lineups in the league. The Astros are 2nd in runs per game and 1st in home runs per game. However, they will be facing an MVP candidate in Shohei Ohtani who has a great 2.97 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 135 strikeouts in 112 innings. Ohtani also sports a phenomenal 9-1 record. On the other side of the ball, Ohtani and the Angels will face Framber Valdez. Valdez has been good this season as well with a 3.08 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, leading to a 9-5 record. However, the Angels batting lineup has played well against left handed pitchers, winning 9 of their last 13 against lefties. On top of that, we all know my saying, never bet against Shohei Ohtani. I think Ohtani provides another vintage performance, adding another home run to his 43 season total. Ohtani will win this game or at the very least, keep it close.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-125)
Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals – 8.15PM ET
This NL Central showdown has massive playoff ramifications as the St Louis Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds. The two teams are three and one games back from the final Wild Card slot in the National League, respectively, and have split their last six games perfectly, 3-3.
Interesting one as I didn’t expect the Reds to be favoured in this matchup. They have lost three of their last four games, to the Cubs and Tigers, while the Cardinals just rolled off two wins against the Dodgers. Purely based on recent form, this is St Louis’ game to lose, but like the odds, I am siding with the Reds. They are starting Tyler Mahle who is an incredible 7-2 on the road this year whilst boasting an impressive 1.90 ERA from 15 starts. Those are absurd numbers and now it is no surprise to see that Cincinnati are starting favourites. Given their poor batting form and how well the Cardinals have been playing, picking off two straight against one of the best teams in baseball, this should be close. However, Mahle gives the Reds an edge that should get them over the line.
This is the start of a three game series between the Reds and the Cardinals, who are both fighting tooth and nail for a Wild Card spot in the NL. The Reds are just one game behind a Wild Card spot, and the Cardinals are hot on their heels, being three games behind a Wild Card spot. The Reds have won just three of their previous 11 clashes in total, and have won 23 of their previous 31 games on a Friday. The Cardinals have won five of their previous six games on a Friday, but just two of their previous seven when it comes to the first game of a series. I think Mahle is the better starting pitcher out of the two, and he will keep the runs to a minimum, so if the batters can do their job, this should be a victory to the Reds.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-142)
The Reds and Cardinals play in an inter-division matchup that could greatly affect the playoff chances of the Reds. The Reds currently sit 2nd in the NL Central division and have a 39.7% chance of making the playoffs. However, their chances have dropped recently as their recent form has been bad, winning just 3 of their last 10 games. The Cardinals haven’t been much better either with just a 5-5 record in their last 10 games. In this game, the Reds are putting Tyler Mahle in at pitcher. Mahle has been good this year with a 3.76 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, leading to a 11-5 record. However, despite his season averages, Mahle has performed poorly recently. In his last game, Mahle allowed 4 runs in 5 innings despite a win against the Tigers. It is still hard to pick the Cardinals to win this as they start Jon Lester who has a 4.89 ERA and just 70 strikeouts in 112 innings. Lester also has a bad 5-6 record. The Reds should win this game, likely in a close one.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-142)
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers – 10.10PM ET
The Los Angeles Dodgers return home to host the San Diego Padres in some NL West weekend action. This is the first of three games and the Dodgers will want to return to the winners list after dropping their last two in St Louis, while the Padres have just a one game hold on the final Wild Card slot in the National League.
The Dodgers have dropped two straight games and now sit 2.5 games behind the Giants for top spot in the NL West. They now host their division rivals and Southern California neighbours, the Padres in a game that is massive for them to get back on track. Julio Urias gets the start for LA, which is a massive positive for the home team. Urias is 16-3 from 27 starts with a 3.11 ERA and just just restricted the Giants, a top three batting unit, to just one run in 5.2 innings of work last weekend. He hasn’t registered a loss since June 21st, meaning LA should have every chance to win this game. Given LA returns home, where they are 46-23 on the season, while the Padres are just 30-34 on the road, this could be a big bounce back performance.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+118)
No. 31 for Max. pic.twitter.com/EL00ywzQZD
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) September 9, 2021
The Dodgers and the Padres kick their three game series off on Friday night. The Dodgers lost their last two games to the Cardinals, to end up tying that series 2-2. The Padres had a two game series with the Angel, in which they, like the Dodgers, also tied. The Padres have won 23 of their previous 74 games when they are the underdog, and have won just four of their previous 13 games on the road. Over to the Dodgers stats now, they have won 19 of their previous 26 clashes against a team that has a winning record, and have won seven of their previous nine when it comes to the first game of a series. I’m fully expecting the Dodgers to bounce back at home tonight, especially considering the Padres have been inconsistent all season. Back the Dodgers here.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (-168)
The Dodgers fall further and further behind the division leader Giants, despite holding the division lead just a few games ago. In order to prevent a further slide, the Dodgers need a win here against their division rival Padres. The Dodgers haven’t been playing well lately with 2 straight losses to the Cardinals and 6 wins in 10 games. In a much needed bounce back game, the Dodgers will face tough competition with Joe Musgrove starting. Musgrove has been one of the league’s best this season and has ranked top 10 in ERA and WHIP. In Musgrove’s last pitching effort he held the league’s 2nd best batting unit, the Astros, to just 2 runs. For the Dodgers, they will be starting Julio Urias who has been phenomenal this season with a 16-3 record. In 156 innings, Urias has 3.11 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 168 strikeouts. Although this interdivision matchup could be close, I have to trust the Dodgers’ league top unit to win this in a close one.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (-168)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.