Free MLB Picks Today: Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays 5/4/23

Kevin Gausman, one of this season’s stingiest pitchers, is set to take the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays (18-13) as they match up against the Boston Red Sox (18-14) at Fenway Park on Thursday with the home team eyeing a sweep of the four-game series. The Red Sox lead the series 3-0 after winning 8-3 on Wednesday.

Starter Nick Pivetta went six innings for the win, allowing three runs on five hits and striking out six. Jarren Duran went 1 for 2 with a double, two runs, and one RBI, walking twice, in the win. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was 2 for 4 with a solo home run for the Blue Jays, stretching his on-base streak to 12 games. Daulton Varsho added a solo home run.

ON THE MOUND

Gausman (2-2, 2.33 ERA) is set to start for Toronto. The right-hander leads the AL in strikeouts (54). Gausman threw seven scoreless innings in his last start, a 1-0 home win over the Mariners on Saturday.

He yielded six hits while striking out 13 and walking one in the no-decision. Gausman is making his first appearance against the Red Sox this season. Over six starts against the Red Sox in 2022, Gausman was 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA over 34 innings.

He had 47 strikeouts and two walks. Right-hander Brayan Bello (0-1, 6.57 ERA) is on the mound for Boston. It’s his first appearance of the season against the Blue Jays. Bello made three appearances against the Blue Jays in 2022, all starts, striking out 13 and walking five over 13 innings (0-2, 7.62).

In his last start on Saturday, Bello took a no-decision at home against the Guardians. He threw five innings and gave up one run on five hits, striking out six and walking two in the 8-7 win.

AT THE PLATE

Over the last five games, Toronto has averaged 4.6 runs a game, a small drop compared to their season average of 4.7. Against right-handed pitchers like Bello this season, the Jays have a .739 OPS. Matt Chapman is the team’s most potent producer against right-handers with a .961 OPS in 82 at-bats.

Boston is averaging 7.2 runs per game in the last five, up from 5.8 for the season, with a better slash line (.360/.414/.613). The Sox have ann .809 OPS against right-handers in 2023, fourth highest in MLB. With a .996 OPS over 83 at-bats, Alex Verdugo has been their best hitter against right-handers.

HOME AND AWAY

Toronto is 9-10 on the road in 2023, scoring 4.6 runs per game while allowing 5.4 runs. Boston has won five in a row at home. The Sox are 12-7 at home this season, averaging 5.9 runs per game while surrendering 5.3. In the last 10 games at Fenway Park between the AL East rivals, Toronto is 7-3 with an average scoreline of 7.5-4.3.

STANDINGS UPDATE

The Blue Jays are third in the AL East, seven games behind the division-leading Rays. The Red Sox are fourth in the AL East, seven games behind the Rays.