Free MLB Picks Today: Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets 7/6/23

The Arizona Diamondbacks (50-37) host the New York Mets (40-46) at Chase Field on Thursday with the visitors eyeing a sweep of the three-game series.

The Mets lead the series 2-0 after winning 2-1 on Wednesday. Starter Kodai Senga went eight innings to get the win, allowing one run on four hits and striking out 12, and David Robertson earned his 13th save with a scoreless ninth.

Mark Canha was 1 for 2 with a triple and one RBI, walking twice, in the win. Francisco Alvarez added a solo home run. Christian Walker went 1 for 3 with a solo home run for the Diamondbacks.

ON THE MOUND

Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 5.94 ERA) is slated to take the mound for New York. The RHP allowed two runs over five innings in his last start, a 5-4 road defeat against the Giants on Friday. He scattered five hits while striking out six and walking three in the no-decision.

Carrasco is making his first appearance against the Diamondbacks this season. Carrasco made one start against the Diamondbacks in 2022, a 3-2 home loss on April 16. He allowed three hits over five scoreless innings, striking out eight and walking two.

For Arizona, righty Ryne Nelson (5-4, 4.67 ERA) will take the mound. It’s his first appearance of the season against the Mets. In his last start on Saturday, Nelson got the win on the road against the Angels. He threw 7.1 innings and gave up one run on three hits, striking out six and walking one in the 3-1 triumph.

AT THE PLATE

Over the last five games, New York has averaged 5.2 runs a game, a small gain compared to their season average of 4.5. Against right-handed pitchers like Nelson this season, the Mets have a .721 OPS.

Brandon Nimmo is the team’s strongest performer against right-handers with a .848 OPS in 222 at-bats. Arizona is averaging only 3.4 runs per game in the last five, down from 5.0 for the season, with their slash line slipping across the board (.188/.280/.315).

The D-backs have a .775 OPS against right-handers in 2023, the fifth highest in MLB. With a .383 OBP over 221 at-bats, Geraldo Perdomo has their highest on-base percentage against right-handers.

HOME AND AWAY

New York is 20-27 away from home in 2023, scoring 4.8 runs per game while allowing 5.0 runs. Arizona has lost four in a row at their home ballpark.

The D-backs are 24-22 at home this season, averaging 4.6 runs per game while surrendering 4.6. In the last 10 games between the teams at Chase Field, New York is 6-4 with an average scoreline of 4.8-4.5.