Our College Football picks are covering a massive weekend of action, headlined by the Michigan v Michigan State rivalry game! That kicks off a massive Saturday of College Football, with our College Football picks covering the five best games, which features eight different ranked teams!
Don’t miss out on our preview for each game along with our College Football Picks for the five best games of this week’s schedule!
#6 Michigan @ #8 Michigan State – 12pm EDT
It doesn’t get any bigger than this. Michigan State hosts Michigan, with both sides undefeated and the top spot of the Big Ten East on the line. Will Jim Harbaugh be able to get one over the cross-town rivals or can Mel Tucker’s revitalized Spartans continue their winning ways?
Tim Newton
Who would have thought that both sides would come into this one ranked inside the top 10 with an undefeated record. Despite this one being played inside Spartan Stadium, I think the Wolverines get over the top. Jim Harbough, while coaching Michigan, may only be 2-12 against top 10 teams and just 3-3 against Michigan State, but he has won 72% of his games and is a fumble away from being 4-2 against the Spartans, with that game potentially allowing them to reach the College Football Playoff.
The Wolverines are one of only 11 teams nation-wide to allow fewer than 300 yards of total offense. The worry is, they are much better at defending the pass than the run and Michigan State relies heavily on Kenneth Walker coming out of the backfield to be their main playmaker. The former Demon Deacon has been dominant on the ground, putting up 997 yards and 9 touchdowns just seven games. However, knowing this, the Wolverines will come in with a plan to shut him down, much like Indiana did in Michigan State’s last game.
The Hoosiers were able to restrict Walker to just 84 yards on 3.7 yards per carry with no touchdowns, whilst also forcing Payton Thorne into throwing two picks. If Michigan can do that, it will go a long way to winning this game. Especially, if they can get their own passing game flowing. It is no secret that the Spartans’ achilles heel is their secondary, however Michigan is a run-dominant side, meaning they may not be able to exploit that. Against Northwestern last weekend, Cade McNamara only managed 129 yards through the air, with Blake Corrum and Hassan Haskins combining for 229 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Ultimately, Michigan’s two-pronged approach seems to be better than Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker-heavy offense. Add in the fact that the Wolverines’ defense is better and that there seems to be a lot more pressure on them to perform, I like the road team to come out on top in the big one.
Tim’s College Football Pick: Michigan (-196)
It’s always something when Michigan and Michigan State face off 😬
Who’s getting the win this weekend? pic.twitter.com/pj4XeE0vsE
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 27, 2021
Tony Battalio
This is the first game in a trio of huge big 10 matchups that will heavily alter the college football playoff picture. It is only fitting that we start off this action packed Saturday with one of the greatest rivalries in college football. Much like any other year this game not only has bragging rights on the line but also Big Ten title aspersions and major bowl implications. We are certainly in store for a great football game in East Lansing between sixth ranked Michigan and eighth ranked Michigan State. Late October and all of November is an absolute meat grinder for Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State to get out of the Big Ten east division and it all starts here with this game for these two schools. As far as the game goes it could go either way but I have to give the slight edge to Michigan State because they have looked like the overall better team this season.
Tony’s College Football Pick: Michigan State (+168)
Noah Dunlap
Coming into the season, virtually no one would have guessed both of these teams would make it to this matchup undefeated, yet here we are. Adding to the intrigue in this one is the fact that they’re both basically the same team. Neither one can throw the ball to speak of, and rely on a solid rushing attack to keep their offenses moving. In MSU’s case, the rushing attack is led by Heisman candidate Kenneth Walker III. Both teams also have really good defenses that are the primary reason both of these schools have remained undefeated.
So this comes down to a question of who has the most talent and who makes the fewest mistakes. While you could try to decipher between the two and take a risk on the moneyline or even the spread, the easier play here is to just take the under and move on. Sitting at 49.5, I truly don’t see how this one makes it there.
Noah’s College Football Pick: Under 49.5 (-110)
#9 Iowa @ Wisconsin – 12pm EDT
Two of the top three teams in the Big Ten West face off as the Wisconsin Badgers host the Iowa Hawkeyes. It was just two weeks ago that the Hawkeyes were ranked #2 in the country but now they sit at #9, thanks to a loss to Purdue, the same Purdue side that Wisconsin beat last weekend.
Tim Newton
I haven’t hidden the fact that I have been on the Iowa-bandwagon this year and I was extremely disappointed to see them drop a game to Purdue prior to their bye. What is more alarming is the fact that Wisconsin beat them by 17 last weekend. Because of this, the Badgers are currently favored by over a field goal, and I am more than happy to take the Hawkeyes with the points.
I’m not expecting Spencer Petras to throw four interceptions again in this one, or any game for that matter. They also allowed Purdue’s passing game to do whatever they wanted, which was very uncharacteristic for a side that was a top five defensive unit. Given Wisconsin are a much more run-heavy team, I expect that Iowa will be able to out-muscle the Badgers and stop them on the ground, not having to worry about deep bombs through the air.
What is absolutely incredible to me is the fact that Graham Mertz only threw the ball eight times against Purdue last weekend. That’s right, Wisconsin only ran eight passing plays. Being so dominant on the ground, the Badgers had a healthy dose of Chez Mellusi (149 yards and a touchdown) and Braelon Allen (140 yards and 2 touchdowns). However, the Hawkeyes have only given up an average of 89.7 rushing yards per game, ranking 7th in the country. That is more than enough for me to think that they will bounce back with a big performance, and I’ll take the points to have some extra comfort.
Tim’s College Football Pick: Iowa +3.5 (-130)
Tony Battalio
This is the second of three huge Big 10 matchups with major implications as the one loss Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Wisconsin Badgers in Madison at Camp Randall Stadium. Unlike the previous matchup and the nightcap between Ohio State and Penn State, this one is going to decide the Big Ten West instead of the East Division. Up until last week’s shocking multiple possession loss to Purdue at home Iowa had looked almost unbeatable.
As for Wisconsin they have struggled early on in the season but are looking to right the ship in conference play. Iowa can absolutely not afford another setback if they want to keep their eyes set on January’s college football playoff. Meanwhile the Wisconsin Badgers playoff hopes are over but they are still able to play spoiler and earn their place in the Big Ten Championship game and it all starts with a win here on Saturday. Despite Iowa’s impressive play this season I believe the rowdy environment at Camp Randall will be too much for the Hawkeyes to handle and Wisconsin will leave with a huge upset victory.
Tony’s College Football Pick:Wisconsin (-176)
Noah Dunlap
Keeping with the Big Ten theme, this one leans the same way as Michigan-Michigan State. Iowa legitimately has nearly no offense, with a really good defense most weeks. Wisconsin has the potential to have a solid offense, but that revolves around whether quarterback Graham Mertz is having a good day or not. So far against elite defenses this season, he’s yet to have a good day, and he’s turned into a bit of a turnover machine.
With there being no way to know which way this game goes, the one there you can be assured of is that points are going to be at a premium in this one. Even with a ridiculously low total, as it’s currently sitting at 36.5, I like the value with the under in this one, as well.
Noah’s College Football Pick: Under 36.5 (-102)
#1 Georgia @ Florida – 3:30pm EDT
The best side in football, Georgia, continues their country-wide tour, this time heading down south to take on Florida. It wasn’t long ago that the Gators got within two points of Alabama, but they have gone just 2-2 since then and will need to up their game against the Bulldogs and their incredible defense.
Tim Newton
While Florida put up a fight against Alabama, who were ranked #1 at the time, I don’t think they will have the same luck against Georgia. The Bulldogs rank 1st for total defense and scoring defense, while ranking second for passing defense and rushing defense. Through seven games they have only given up 46 points! That’s right, 46 points for an average of just 6.6 per game.
While Florida ranks ninth for total offense, averaging almost 250 yards in the air and over 250 yards on the ground, they haven’t faced anything like this, including Alabama. Georgia is on another level defensively, not giving up more than 13 points in a game and keeping teams scoreless in two of their seven games.
Another important factor is that Stentson Bennett hasn’t thrown a pick in his last three games, and Georgia have 30+ in each of their last six. I honestly don’t see how the Gators can compete. I don’t like the value of Georgia’s moneyline being -750 and the hook on the spread (-14.5) scares me slightly, so I will take the odds about Georgia to lead at the half and win the game in the double play.
Tim’s College Football Pick: Double Result – Georgia/Georgia (-290)
𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐚 𝐯𝐬 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚 | 𝐆𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝟎𝟖 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐫
🎙️Voiced by: @ReadWithMalcolm pic.twitter.com/Xeez7PeyVc— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) October 28, 2021
Tony Battalio
Adding to our already impressive list of games this week is the “world’s largest outdoor cocktail party” otherwise known as the Florida-Georgia game. Game will take place in Jacksonville, Florida like it does every single year. Most of us have heard about the ‘Georgia sports curse’ starting with the Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl collapse then the Georgia Bulldogs losing in the national title game on a 2nd and 26 Hail Mary. However it is also worth noting that every year the Atlanta Braves have made the World Series, the Florida Gators have defeated the Georgia Bulldogs during that college football season.
Obviously I don’t think that will have any outcome on the game I just think it’s an interesting bit of information to point out. With a victory and a Kentucky loss the Georgia Bulldogs would practically wrap up the SEC East and secure their place in the SEC title game in Atlanta in December. As for the game I believe George’s defense is just too much to overcome and they will smother Florida on the way to victory.
Tony’s College Football Pick: Georgia (-700)
Noah Dunlap
Bulldogs, Bulldogs, Bulldogs, and more Bulldogs. I could stop there, but for your benefit, I’ll give a bit more background into this pick. Georgia has far and away the best defense in football. On top of that, the offense, while not great, is certainly good enough to beat anyone (there’s a reason they’re the best team in football), regardless of whether Stetson Bennett or JT Daniels starts for them.
On the other sideline, Florida has a quarterback competition going on, as Emory Jones is trying to once and for all keep the job away from Anthony Richardson. That leads me to have doubts about the offense’s chances against a ferocious UGA defense. Add in the fact that the Gator defense gave up 45 to a shaky LSU team, including 287 on the ground to Tyrion Davis-Price. With the line sitting at 14.5 right now, there’s great value in taking Georgia to cover, but honestly, regardless of the number, take UGA to cover, because this one gets ugly in a hurry.
Noah’s College Football Pick: Georgia -14.5 (-102)
#10 Ole Miss @ #18 Auburn – 7pm EDT
Another matchup between two ranked opponents, #10 Ole Miss heads Jordan-Hare Stadium to take on #18 Auburn. The Rebels have won three straight since running into Alabama while the Tigers have won three of their last four, with their only slip-up coming against Georgia.
Tim Newton
This is a tough one. Ole Miss beat LSU by more than Auburn did, but Auburn beat Arkansas by more than Ole Miss did. Both sides are playing some very nice football at the moment, but I may have to lean on the Rebels, thanks to them having the better quarterback, and therefore control of the game.
Bo Nix is good, but occasionally erratic, while Matt Corral is second-favorite for the Heisman. There is a big disparity between these two quarterbacks, and I think it may be the difference in the end result. Auburn may have a better overall defense than Ole Miss, but they don’t have the offensive firepower than Ole Miss does.
Just last week, Jarod Connor rushed for 117 yards while Corral threw for 186 yards while completing 79% of his passes. The week before, Corral did it all himself, throwing for 231 while running for 195. No matter which way you try to stop them, you can’t. I think Auburn keeps it close, at home, but ultimately they won’t be able to keep up.
Tim’s College Football Pick: Ole Miss (+118)
Tony Battalio
The second featured SEC game of the week of another game that will have big conference title implications of the winner of this game will be looking to keep pace with the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Western division race. Ole Miss comes into this game with one loss and despite losing their head to head tiebreaker versus Alabama, they can keep themselves in the conversation with a victory. The same can be said for the Auburn Tigers who are still awaiting a date with Alabama at the end of the season in the Iron Bowl.
However it won’t be easy for either team, they will each feature a productive quarterback who can make plays to win big time football games. Auburn is one by Bo Nic and running back Tank Bigsby and both of them will need to play mistake free football to get a win at home and Jordan Hare stadium. As for Mississippi they are led by Heisman candidate Matt Corral who has racked up an impressive season this far. This is another game that could really go either way but I believe Mississippi pulls this out at the end and comes away with a huge road victory.
Tony’s College Football Pick: Ole Miss (+118)
Noah Dunlap
Despite going against Ole Miss last week, and losing, I think I’m back doing the same thing again this week. They’re certainly the better team, and they should win, but they never play all that well against Auburn, and there’s some weird dark magic about Jordan-Hare Stadium at night.
Auburn QB Bo Nix at home is a completely different player at home than he is on the road, so I expect a big day from the Auburn offense against an at-best sketchy Rebel defense. However, the same goes for the Ole Miss offense, as the Auburn defense is certainly better than Ole Miss’, but Matt Corral and company have shown that they can score on anyone.
In the end, look for the Tigers home-field advantage to be the difference, and with the number sitting low with AU -2.5, take them to cover.
Noah’s College Football Pick: Auburn -2.5 (-114)
#20 Penn State @ #5 Ohio State – 7:30pm EDT
We round out the night with the rejuvenated Ohio State Buckeyes hosting the Penn State Nittany Lions. Ohio State has pulled off five straight wins since a shock loss to Oregon in September, while Penn State has dropped two straight, to the Hawkeyes and Fighting Illini.
Tim Newton
Ohio State is favored by 18.5 points in this one but I really think it should be more. They have won five straight wins, by an average of 41.6 points. While none of the teams that they have played are on the level of Penn State, I don’t think any of the teams that Penn State have played are even close to the level of Ohio State.
The Buckeyes have established themselves as one of the top three teams in football, alongside Georgia and Alabama. While you may think of Ohio State as an offensive-heavy side, focusing on outscoring opponents rather than actually stopping them, their defense has come to the party. Over the last four games, Ohio State has the second best scoring defense and has allowed the second fewest yards per play, both behind Georgia.
Add in the fact that CJ Stroud has turned into a Heisman smokey since returning from injury, and Ohio State is a legit Championship team. Over those three games, Stroud has averaged 334 yards while throwing 14 touchdowns and no picks. That is an elite level of play from the quarterback, and I don’t see it stopping against a Penn State side that has just dropped two straight, averaging 19 points of offense across the two games.
Over those two losses, Sean Clifford has averaged 155 passing yards while throwing just one touchdown and two interceptions. Given Ohio State’s defense has come to life over the last month, they will be licking their chops for this matchup.
Tim’s College Football Pick: Ohio State -18.5 (-110)
Don’t be afraid of the dark. 🔥🎬🍿#TheTrailer #GoBucks pic.twitter.com/IOa0EWA559
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) October 29, 2021
Tony Battalio
This will be the main event of our Big Ten trio and it’s a heavy hitting matchup between Ohio State Buckeyes and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Due to Penn State’s conference losses and the other teams in the division still being unbeaten in conference play this may not mean much in terms of the Big Ten championship game. But Penn State doesn’t forget that Ohio State knocked them out of contention for several Big Ten titles and college football playoff appearances and they would love to return the favor.
Expect this to be like many prior matchups, a heavy hitting battle that goes down to the very end. Ohio State looks like one of the top teams in the country since falling to Oregon way back in week two. As for Penn State, if they had not lost Shaun Clifford who knows where they would be they may have beaten Iowa and a healthy Clifford may have been able to get the job done versus Illinois last week. As for this game I believe the buckeyes will continue dominating there Big Ten opponents as they prepare to still play Michigan and Michigan State later on in the year.
Tony’s College Football Pick: Ohio State (-1000)
Noah Dunlap
Let’s make this easy: Buckeyes by 100. They’re already a better team, as Penn State has virtually no offense (common Big Ten theme), and with PSU head coach James Franklin being rumored as the next coach at USC, the distractions are mounting. The only proof you needed of this is the Franklin press conference earlier this week where he misspoke multiple times about this week’s matchup.
Meanwhile, Ohio State is trying to stay in contention for a Playoff spot. With quarterback CJ Stroud playing like a Heisman candidate over the past month or so, I don’t expect that to stop this weekend. Look for the Buckeyes to roll to an easy win, but with a relatively large spread at 18.5, I would lean away from trying to decide whether they cover the number. And while OSU wins with ease, there’s no value in the moneyline. Which leaves us with one option, the under. Look for the final to sit somewhere around 38-10/38-14, which gets us to the under with ease.
Noah’s College Football Pick: Under 60.5 (-110)
*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.
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