Australian Open Predictions 2023: SportsTips’ Top Tennis Picks For Round 3

The defending champion and the number one seed on the men’s side of the draw is out. Yes, you read that correctly. Nadal went down in straight sets to unseeded McDonald, after picking up an injury in the second set. If that wasn’t enough, the second seed, Ruud, is also out! But wait there’s more, the eighth seed, Fritz, was also knocked out in the second round by an unseeded Australian.

On the women’s side of the draw, things were just as rocky. In terms of the top 10 seeded players, the number two seed, Jabeur, was eliminated in three sets by undeeded Vondroušová. On top of that, the eighth and ninth seeds, Kasatkina and Kudermetova, respectively, were also not able to make it through to the third round. 

Enjoy our free tennis picks and predictions for each round at the Australian Open for the 2023 season.

Round 3 Tennis Picks at the Australian Open: Men’s Draw

Karen Khachanov (18) vs Frances Tiafoe (16)

The third round is generally when we finally see seeded players up against each other, and this match is sure to bring in the crowd. Karen Khachanov has only dropped one set on his way to the third round, and it is a similar story for Frances Tiafoe, who has also only dropped one set.

Aleksandar Ricliev

Karen Khachanov had some mixed results in 2022, but he came to the Australian Open on a high note, having reached the Semifinal at the US Open. The big Russian is just entering the prime years of his career and will be a force to be reckoned with in the coming years. He has displayed utter dominance in the Australian Open so far, intimidating his opponents with powerful serves and attacks. He has won the two matchups against Tiafoe in his career, most notably, absolutely dominating the American in Wimbledon by 3-0 in almost an hour and a half.

Frances Tiafoe will be looking to continue his impressive winning streak. After reaching the Semifinal in the US Open and the Tokyo ATP, he hopes to have the same success in the Australian Open as well. He has lost only one set so far in the tournament and looks to be in great form. However, he has yet to beat Khachanov in his career, and he’ll be looking for revenge. Tiafoe versus Khachanov is the most exciting matchup in this round, and I expect to see a tennis marathon. It wouldn’t surprise me if they end up playing five sets in an intense battle. The match should easily cover the total games spread.

Denis Kirilov

Karen Khachanov takes on Frances Tiafoe in one of the most interesting match-ups in the third round in Melbourne. The 26-year-old Russian continues his pursuit of going past that stage of the tournament at the Australian Open. He failed in his previous four attempts, but he still hopes that luck will be on his side tomorrow. While defeating Zapata Miralles seemed like an easy task, his meeting with Jason Kubler was far from that. Khachanov struggled on his serve as this might play a crucial role in his upcoming match. 

On the other hand, Frances Tiafoe finds himself in the best form of his life. The hard-hitting American currently rides on a 7-game winning streak after ousting the competition in the United Cup. He tends to struggle in his opening matches at Grand Slams and his meeting with Daniel Altmaier was no exception. Tiafoe narrowly avoided going to a fifth deciding set as he held his nerves in the tie-break in the fourth. Then, he completely annihilated Juncheng Shang to secure his spot in the third round. Knowing that his best performance in Melbourne is a Quarterfinal from 2019, Tiafoe will certainly be looking to top it off this year. I think he is more consistent than Khachanov and his experience will also help him break his serve several times.

Jack Hartman

For the fourth successive year Karen Khachanov has reached the third round of the Australian Open but in that time has never advanced further. In order to achieve a new career milestone the big hitting Russian will need to overcome one of the form players of the year Frances Tiafoe. Khachanov has played well in his first two matches, beating Bernabe Zapata Miralles in straight sets in Round 1, before following that up with a four set win over Aussie wild card Jason Kubler. Khachanov will arrive at this match full of confidence following his run to last year’s US Open Semifinal. Too often Khachanov has struggled at the Slams, being dragged into long battles that derail his tournament. He arrives at this match fresh and will be hoping to extend the 2-0 head to head series lead he currently holds over the American. 

By reaching the third round at this year’s Australian Open, Frances Tiafoe has advanced the furthest in the tournament since he reached the Quarterfinals back in 2019. Last year was a solid year for the American who, like Khachanov, was able to reach the Semifinal of last year’s US Open. Like his Russian opponent, Tiafoe has lost just one set in advancing to this stage of the tournament and should arrive full of confidence. Tiafoe is yet to taste defeat this season and will start the match as the favorite. Tiafoe is yet to beat Khachanov but will be confident of changing that record here and it wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if he were to come out on top in what is bound to be a tight contest.

Mackenzie McDonald vs Yoshihito Nishioka (31)

Mackenzie McDonald featured in our Round 2 tennis picks article, but he played so well against Nadal (even before his injury), that we just had to include him again in our Round 3 top picks, so we can follow his journey fully. McDonald faced a tough and grueling five set match in the first round, but then to everyone’s surprise, was able to defeat the number one seed in straight sets. The 31st seed, Nishioka, is yet to drop a set so far at the Australian Open.

Aleksandar Ricliev

After a surprising win against one of the greatest players of all time, Rafael Nadal, Mackenzie McDonald finds himself in the third round of the Australian Open. The American is an experienced player who knows how to deal with the pressure a tournament of this reputation brings. McDonald usually relies on a counter-attacking playstyle, and it will be interesting to see his approach to this matchup because his opponent usually plays a similar style of tennis and, in my opinion, does it much better. If McDonald hopes to win, he will have to start the match much more aggressively than usual and try to put pressure on his adversary.

Yoshido Nishioka is displaying some impressive performances in the Australian Open. He has won his first two rounds, spending an average of only two hours on the court. Nishioka’s footwork is outstanding, and he has found the perfect balance between attacking and counter-attacking. The match against McDonald will bring some fast, exciting tennis and will be lots of fun to watch. I don’t agree with the bookmakers on this fixture, in my eyes Nishioka is much more of a favorite than the betting odds say he is. I am picking him to win.

Denis Kirilov

Mackenzie McDonald pulled off the upset of the tournament, eliminating the reigning champion Rafael Nadal in the second round. The 27-year-old American kept high consistency levels throughout the whole match which helped him take advantage of the struggles felt by the 22-time Grand Slam winner. McDonald had a tough period during COVID as he lost some of his form in 2020. However, he fought back with a fourth round appearance at the 2021 Australian Open and a first ATP Final. Despite only going through the first round at the French Open in 2022, he clinched a maiden ATP title and made a debut into the top 50. 

Yoshihito Nishioka’s story is pretty similar as he is currently enjoying the best years of his professional career. The left-handed Japanese is ranked world number 33 as he has set his eyes on a further improvement in that aspect. Nishioka failed to squeeze past the first round in 2022, but he is now on his way to grab a fourth round spot. He met McDonald in Adelaide a week prior to the Australian Open and closed the match in straight sets (6-4, 6-3). I strongly believe that he will have the upper hand on Friday afternoon and hopefully he will cover his spread.

Jack Hartman

Hands up if you predicted this third round contest?! Mackenzie McDonald and Yoshihito Nishioka are both looking to make a rare foray into the last sixteen of a major event. For Nishioka this run to the third round matches his best ever effort at Melbourne Park which came back in 2020, he has never advanced past this round in his career. Ranked as the 31st seed in the tournament, the Japanese star has wasted no time and has won both his matches against Mikel Ymer and Dalibor Svrcina in straight sets. Nishioka has gotten his 2023 off to a great start and has won five of the six matches he has played. One of these wins came against Mackenzie McDonald just a few weeks ago, when he beat the American in straight sets in the warm up Adelaide event. Nishioka will be confident of a repeat of that performance and in doing so reach the fourth round of a Grand Slam for the very first time. 

Mackenzie McDonald wouldn’t have expected to have been given this opportunity considering he faced the defending champion Rafa Nadal in Round 2. Injured and unable to play anywhere near his level, McDonald took full advantage of Nadal’s ailments and is looking to land in the fourth round of the Australian Open for just the second time. It’s been a tournament of extremes for the American who won his first match of the tournament against Brandon Nakashima in five sets before his straight set victory against Nadal in the second round. McDonald has only beaten Nishioka once and currently trails 3-1 in the head to head. This will mark their second meeting in a Grand Slam with Nishioka winning their French Open contest back in 2019 in five sets. 

Andrey Rublev (5) vs Dan Evans (25)

Andrey Rublev will be looking to book his spot in the Round of 16, but standing in his way is Brit, Dan Evans. Rublev was cruising in the first round, defeating Thiem in straight sets, and then he proved too good for Ruusuvuori in the second round, winning in four sets. Evans has dropped one set so far at the Australian Open, which came in the first round.

Aleksandar Ricliev

Andrey Rublev came into the Australian Open with three losses in a row. Ranked number 6 on the ATP list, Rublev has a long way to go to find his best form. The big Russian looks out of rhythm, making way too many unforced errors, disrupting his own flow of the game. He beat Thiem in the first round of the tournament by 3-0, and Ruusuvuori in the second round by 3-1. The match against Daniel Evans presents a whole other challenge.

Daniel Evans had some mixed results in 2022. He missed some great opportunities to advance through on the major tournaments and improve his standing. He has started the year of 2023 the same way and doesn’t seem able to find his consistency. In the Australian Open, he has played okay, losing only one set so far. Andrey Rublev and Daniel Evans have a huge history together, having played eight matches against each other in their career, with the result being a draw, 4-4. I expect this to be a close, tight battle between two inconsistent players. I wouldn’t bet on a winner in this match, I am taking them to cover the total games spread.

Denis Kirilov

Despite his enormous success lately, Andrey Rublev has never gone past the Quarterfinals of a Grand Slam tournament. With that being said, the Olympic gold medalist in the mixed doubles has already reached that stage a staggering six times. Rublev is now moving slowly into the direction of repeating that feat yet once again in his career. The 25-year-old Russian defeated Dominic Thiem in the opening match before snatching the victory against Emil Ruusuvuori in 4 sets in the second round. He has already met his upcoming opponent 8 times throughout his career, winning 50% of the matches and having a losing record on hard courts. 

Daniel Evans is surely a veteran in the tennis world as he turned pro back in 2006. However, despite that solid career, the talent from Great Britain has only reached the fourth round of a Grand Slam twice before. Evans struggled immensely against Facundo Bagnis in the opening match at this year’s Australian Open. He then went on to secure a 3-set victory over Jeremy Chardy in the second round. The 32-year-old veteran achieved some success lately, but he rarely makes it deep into such big events on the ATP Tour. That’s why I will go with Rublev taking down the match in 4 sets. 

Jack Hartman

When Dan Evans and Andrey Rublev meet in the third round of this year’s Australian Open one thing is guaranteed to happen – fireworks. Both players wear their hearts on their sleeves and there will be plenty of drama taking place after points have finished. Andrey Rublev arrived at this year’s Australian Open as the fifth seed and is still flying under the radar. Rublev hasn’t enjoyed too much success at Melbourne Park with his best effort coming back in 2021 when he reached the Quarterfinal stage. Rublev was handed a tough draw in the opening rounds, firstly defeating former US Open champion Dominic Thiem in three closely fought sets before battling past the tricky Finn Emil Ruusouvori in four sets. Rublev looks destined to face Novak Djokovic in the Quarterfinal and will be desperate to make quick work of Evans to save as much energy as possible for that mouthwatering contest. 

Dan Evans, now aged 32, is slowly moving towards the twilight of career and will want to make the most of the opportunity he has in the third round. Playing in his seventh Australian Open, Evans has a mixed record at Melbourne Park, only reaching the fourth round on one occasion. Last year was a mixed year for the Brit, whose ranking tumbled from inside the top twenty to outside the top 40. A solid end to the year saw him move back inside the top 30 and he has started this year’s Australian Open in good form. Evans overcame the tricky Facundo Bagnis in four sets before blowing away the veteran Frenchman Jeremy Chardy in three easy sets. Evans and Rublev have met on eight occasions with the series being level at 4-4. Evans won the last encounter but this will be their first Grand Slam meeting and over five sets Rublev should advance. 

Round 3 Tennis Picks at the Australian Open: Women’s Draw

Zhu Lin vs Maria Sakkari (6)

Unseeded Zhu Lin will face an uphill battle when she squares off with the sixth seed, Maria Sakkari. Lin is yet to drop a set so far at the Australian Open, which includes a victory over the 32nd seed, Teichmann. Sakkari faced an almighty scare in the second round against young, and relatively unknown, Shnaider, but she was able to steady the ship and come through in three sets.

Aleksandar Ricliev

Zhu Lin has probably had the easiest draw in the Australian Open so far. In the first round, she faced the injury-plagued Marino and made easy work of that match, beating her 2-0 in only an hour. In the second round of the tournament, Zhu faced Teichmann who didn’t even show up at all. The Swiss player made 32 unforced errors in the 16 games and practically threw the match on her own. Zhu employs a counter-attacking playstyle which can be a nightmare to play against. Coming up against the powerful Greek power-hitter Maria Sakkari will be a fun clash of styles and the first real test for Zhu.

After demolishing the counter-attacking Chinese, Yuan by 6-1, 6-4 in the first round of the tournament, Maria Sakkari had a real scare in the second round against Shnaider. Shnaider started playing aggressively from the start, and Sakkari struggled to cope with the pace of the game. It was a great showing of amazing attacking tennis, and in the end, the Greek superstar emerged victorious. I don’t think Zhu has the ability to put the same pressure on her, and on paper, this should be a much easier match for Sakkari. I’ve got her winning by 2-0.

Denis Kirilov

Zhu Lin had an incredible start to what might be her most memorable journey at a Grand Slam. The former world number 58 defeated consecutively Rebecca Marino and Jil Teichmann in straight sets. She kept her composure throughout the matches conceding only 25 unforced errors in the span of four sets. Lin has certainly improved her game lately which makes me reevaluate her potential. The Chinese player will go into her upcoming fixture with sheer determination and with nothing to lose. 

On the other hand, all the pressure falls on Maria Sakkari’s shoulders. The powerful Greek would love to find a way to replicate their 2016 Australian Open meeting when she defeated Zhu Lin in straight sets. However, the situation around Sakkari remains unclear as she came close to getting eliminated by Diana Shnaider in the previous stage of the tournament. Her dominant figure has been struggling recently as the world number 6 is desperately looking for her rhythm. With all that being said, I think that Zhu Lin will at least put up a fair battle against Sakkari and take off some games in the process that will be enough for her to cover the spread.

Jack Hartman

Sixth seed Maria Sakkari is hoping that this year’s Australian Open can continue in the same vein as her end to 2022 where the Greek star reached the Final in Parma and Mexico before she reached the Semifinal of the season ending WTA Tour Finals. Twice in the last three years Sakkari has reached the fourth round at Melbourne Park but she has never advanced further. It’s hard to know what sort of form she brings into the match as she barely snuck past the Russian qualifier Diana Shanider, outlasting the Russian in three grueling sets. Long regarded as one of the best players in the women’s game, Sakkari will be hoping for a deep run this tournament.

Standing in the way of Sakkari’s day of destiny is the Chinese player Zhu Lin. Never before has Zhu reached the third round of a Grand Slam but she has done it with the minimum amount of fuss, beating Rebecca Marino and Jil Teichmann in straight sets. This matchup against Sakkari is a huge step up in class but Zhu will certainly ensure she is no pushover. The two have only met once before with their match coming in the qualifying for the Australian Open all the way back in 2016. Sakkari was the winner that day and is strongly fancied to repeat the trick here. Sakkari can sometimes be her own worst enemy and Zhu will be hoping that can be the case in this contest, but Sakkari’s quality should just be enough for her to advance. 

Bernarda Pera vs Coco Gauff (7)

One thing we know for sure is that at least one American woman will make the Round of 16, as we see compatriots Bernarda Pera and Coco Gauff face off. Pera won her first round match in three sets, and then in the second round dispatched the 29th seed, Zheng, in straight sets. It was a fairly easy victory for Gauff in the first round, but she faced a tough challenge in the second against Raducanu, although Gauff was still victorious in straight sets.

Aleksandar Ricliev

Bernarda Pera had a great year in 2022, winning the Hamburg and Budapest WTAs. However, she struggled in the major tournaments, most notably losing in the first round of the US Open. The Australian Open is another chance for her to redeem herself. In the first round, she struggled against the outsider Uchijima and needed three sets to come out with the win. In the second round, she played outstanding, upsetting the favorite Zhang. Will she be able to do it again against Gauff?

Coco Gauff is a young American super talent. Like any young player, she is prone to losing focus at times, which brings inconsistency. However, her athletic abilities and overall tennis skills are unquestioned, and at the moment, she is probably the most talented young tennis player in the world. She seems to be on fire in this tournament, beating both Siniakova and Raducanu by 2-0 in the previous two rounds. At times, she looked unplayable, and if she continues to play like that, I can’t see Pera giving her much trouble. I might be going out on a limb here, but I am taking Gauff to win this match and cover the games spread.

Denis Kirilov

Following her second round victory over Qinwen Zheng, Bernarda Pera equaled her best performance in Melbourne. The Croatian-born American tennis player is undoubtedly playing on top of her potential as she will meet one of the top contenders for the title, Coco Gauff. Pera won her first two WTA titles in 2022 after dominating the competition in Budapest and Hamburg. Even though her preferable surface remains clay, she has shown off her skills on hard courts as well. However, coming up against Gauff would require high concentration and ability to handle her nerves. 

One of the best players on the WTA tour starts 2023 with the ambition to win a Grand Slam. She failed in her previous attempt at the French Open when she was destroyed in the Final by the unstoppable Iga Swiatek. Not once has Gauff stated that she loves playing on hard courts but that has been the case in 2023. The young talent is yet to lose a set as she won the title in Auckland and defeated both Siniakova and Raducanu in Melbourne. Gauff is far more athletic than Pera as her on-court movement and shot placement have simply been remarkable throughout the beginning of the season. That’s why I will trust her to cover the spread against her compatriot.  

Jack Hartman

For advancing out of a tough contest against Emma Raducanu, Coco Gauff is the challenge of Bernarda Pera. Gauff who is seeded seven for this tournament was made to push all of the way against the former US Open champion Emma Raducanu. Using all of her experience and showing exactly why she is yet to lose this year, Gauff and her team were able to sneak past in two extremely competitive sets. Gauff’s win over Pera was her seventh of the year and the American is yet to lose a single set.

Last year was a superb year for Bernarda Pera who rose from outside the game’s top 100 to a fixture well inside the top 50. The highlight came when Pera won the Hungarian Open as a qualifier, before then going onto reaching the Final in Cleveland the week after. Her run to the third round marks just the second time in her career where she has reached this stage. The first came back at this tournament back in 2018. Despite her growing status in the game, Pera hasn’t been impacted by nerves or poor form with the American overcoming Moyuka Uchijima in round one, before she beat 29th seed Qinwen Zheng in straight sets. This will be the pair’s first ever meeting and although this has the capacity to be close, Gauff should have too much game for her compatriot here. 

Madison Keys (10) vs Victoria Azarenka (24)

American Madison Keys will face off against former two-time Australian Open champion, Victoria Azarenka, with a spot in the final 16 up for grabs. Keys lost one set in her first round appearance, but was able to win her second round clash in straight sets. Azarenka is yet to drop a set, and in her second round match, she only dropped one game.

Aleksandar Ricliev

Madison Keys is yet to lose a single match in 2023. However, in the Australian Open, she has had mixed performances. In the first round against Blinkova, Keys played a really bad match, making way too many unforced errors and was lucky to advance through the next round. In the second round, she came on the court focused and ready to play and dominated Wang Xin from the start, winning the match in an hour and fifteen minutes. Madison Keys has yet to win a match against Azarenka in her career, and she will have to come out and play her best game if she expects to have any chance of doing so.

Victoria Azarenka is soon coming to the end of her career, the 33-year-old Belarusian doesn’t move as well as she used to, but her powerful attacks are as strong as ever. She has yet to lose a set in the Australian Open, and in the second round, she absolutely demolished the Argentinian Podoroska, 6-1, 6-0, in under an hour. Azarenka has won three of the matches against Keys and I think the streak will continue. I’ve got Azarenka winning.

Denis Kirilov

Madison Keys comes up against Victoria Azarenka in one of the most compelling match-ups for the third round in Melbourne. The American would certainly love to return to her form from 2016 when she had such a consistency that launched her into the top 7 of the world. Following her recent success at the United Cup, it seems that she might be on her way to achieve precisely that. Keys had a tough meeting with Anna Blinkova in the first round before dominating over Xinyu Wang in the previous round. 

On the other hand, Victoria Azarenka has already achieved a lot throughout her career. The former world number 1 and a two-time winner in Melbourne seeks to produce a vintage performance at this year’s Australian Open. She completely annihilated Nadia Podoroska in the second round, giving away just one game in the process and wrapping it up in just under an hour. The Belarusian has an incredible 72% win-rate across 20 years on the WTA Tour as she has all the needed experience behind her back. Despite the high expectations surrounding this match, I think that whoever wins the first set will go on to win the second one as well. That’s why I am picking the under option in this clash.    

Jack Hartman

A clash of two giants of the WTA Tour awaits in Round 3 as 10th seed Madison Keys takes on 24th seed Victoria Azarenka. Both players have a significant pedigree when it comes to this fantastic tournament with Keys twice being a semifinalist and Azarenka twice a winner back in 2012 and 2013. With the draw being considered fairly open this year, both players will believe that they could win the title. 

Madison Keys was made to battle in this year’s opening round, eventually overcoming Anna Blinkova in three tight sets. Her second round victory over Wang Xin was much more like it as the American powered through in straight sets. It’s been a superb start to the season for Keys who is yet to taste defeat in 2023 and played a starring role in the USA’s inaugural United Cup success. Victoria Azarenka has started the year in relatively low key fashion with the Belarusian losing twice in Adelaide to Viktoria Kudermetova and Linda Noskova respectively. Her form has been better over the first two rounds with the former champion making light work of Sophia Kenin and Nadia Podoroska. This clash will come down to Keys. If she can keep the ball in play she should win this matchup but if the radar is off, look for Azarenka to take full advantage. 

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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.