Australian Open Predictions 2023: SportsTips’ Top Tennis Picks For Round 1

It’s time for the first Grand Slam of the year and the team at SportsTips.com are previewing the best six matches of the first round. Read below to check out our picks for the three best men’s and three best women’s matches for Round 1 at the Australian Open for 2023!

It is the opening round at the Australian Open and there are some interesting matchups for the first round, especially with Novak Djokovic returning to Melbourne after having his visa granted, while there are a few other key players who haven’t made the trip. Who will take out the championship game in the men’s and women’s draw? It is sure to be a thrilling two weeks to find out! 

Enjoy our free tennis picks and predictions for each round at the Australian Open for the 2023 season.

Round 1 Tennis Picks at the Australian Open: Men’s Draw

Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe (16)

German Daniel Altmaier will have his work cut out for him when he takes on the 16th seed in Frances Tiafoe. Altmaier last played in the ASB Classic in January, however he lost in the qualifiers. Last time Tiafoe played professionally at an individual level was at the Paris Masters, where he went down to Auger-Aliassime in the Quarterfinals.

Aleksandar Ricliev

Daniel Altmaier is a German tennis player who normally competes in smaller tournaments. The mere presence in the Australian Open is a success for him. Altmaier has lost only two matches in his last 15, but he has mostly played against subpar competition. His powerful serves and attacks were more than enough to get him the wins. However, he struggles with his footwork and defensive movement. This matchup against Tiafoe will be a true test of his progress and tennis ability.

After going to the Semifinals in the US Open, Francis Tiafoe will be looking to add to his success and go even further in this tournament. Tiafoe is looking good coming into the Australian Open with a 5-match winning streak. Tiafoe is one of the best young players in the world; the difference in class is obvious, and it would take a miracle for Altmaier to advance to the next stage. The big German can produce powerful serves, so earning a breakpoint won’t be an easy task for Tiafoe, but I can’t see Altmaier getting more than one set in this match. A Tiafoe win with a 1.5-set handicap is an easy bet in my eyes.

Denis Kirilov

Frances Tiafoe is currently in the peak of his career reaching world number 17 at the end of the year. The 24-year-old American made personal bests at the last three Grand Slam tournaments in 2022. He even reached the Semifinal at the US Open before going down to the eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz. Tiafoe also took part in Roger Federer’s farewell match which will certainly give him even more motivation heading into the 2023 season. Winning all of his five matches at the United Cup also puts him in a fantastic spot days before his opening game at the Australian Open.

Similar to Tiafoe, Daniel Altmaier enjoyed his best performance in 2022. However, the inexperienced player is still looking for his first Grand Slam win since 2020. Altmaier might have lost all of his first round matches in 2022, but his consistent performance during the ATP Challengers kept his spot in the top 100. The German won two straight tournaments in South America which was only enough for a world number  91. Knowing that Tiafoe can have struggles adapting to his game style, I will certainly go with the option for over games in this match. 

Jack Hartman

For the second year in succession Daniel Altmaier has been handed a tough opening round draw at the Australian Open. Last year he was beaten by fellow German Alexander Zverev and if he is to reach the second round for the first time in his career, he will need to produce one of his best performances to outlast Frances Tiafoe. 

Tiafoe has started 2023 in a similar vein to 2022 and played a significant part in helping the USA win the United Cup. Tiafoe went unbeaten in his five United Cup contests beating the likes of Dan Evans, Oscar Otte and Lorenzo Musetti. A former quarterfinalist of this event back in 2019, Tiafoe will have serious hopes of repeating that effort here. Despite being a veteran of the tour, it’s hard to forget that Tiafoe is only 24 and looks to be playing the best tennis of his career. Tiafoe was just a few points away from reaching his first ever Grand Slam Final at last year’s US Open, a run that saw him beat Andrey Rublev and Rafael Nadal before succumbing to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz in five sets. If Tiafoe plays well he will be a hard man to beat, and he should get his tournament off to the perfect start in this contest.

Rafael Nadal (1) vs Jack Draper

Rafael Nadal begins his title defense against a tough opponent in Jack Draper. Nadal hasn’t played a professional match on an individual level since November, at the ATP World Series Finals, where he lost to Fritz and Auger-Aliassime in the Group Stage, but beat Ruud. Draper has been playing in Australia prior to the Grand Slam, in Adelaide, and he made it all the way to the Semifinals, before going down to Kwon.

Aleksandar Ricliev

Rafael Nadal is coming to the Australian Open in mediocre form. After losing to Tiafoe in the Round of 16 at the US Open, Nadal has won only two of the last seven matches. The 36-year-old Spaniard is slowly but surely nearing the end of his career, and there are rumors spreading: Nadal is planning to retire this year after Roland Garros. He is coming to this tournament as one of the favorites, together with Novak Djokovic and Medvedev. However, the draw wasn’t kind to him; the British impressive young talent, Jack Draper, is far from an easy opponent.

On his day, Jack Draper can give anyone a scare. The talented leftie plays an aggressive game, and his bag of shots is quite deep. He loves attacking, and if he manages to keep his unforced errors at a low number, the 36-year-old Nadal will be in for quite the fight. This is one of the best matches to watch in the first round. I expect to see a long, hard battle. Get your snacks and your drinks, and sit on your comfy chair; this game will go over the 37.5 games spread.

Denis Kirilov

The reigning champion of the Australian Open and the 22-time Grand Slam winner is headed towards his third title in Melbourne. However, the 36-year-old world number 2 has had some tough memories to close out the previous year. Rafael Nadal went on a 4-game losing streak before defeating Casper Ruud in the Nitto ATP Finals. The Spanish player also lost his last two matches as he was ousted by Cameron Norrie and Alex de Minaur. However, Nadal has always been able to perform at top level which has been his trademark throughout his entire career. 

On the other hand, Jack Draper fought well to reach the top 40 in the ATP. The Brit relies much on his first serve which has been quite efficient throughout the past year. He is coming into the Australian Open following three straight victories over Sonego, Tommy Paul, and Khachanov. Despite his tough matchup in the first round, he’s got all the ability to stop Rafa Nadal on his way to further cement his legacy. That’s why I will go with Draper winning the opening set on Monday.   

Jack Hartman

Rafael Nadal starts the defense of his Australian Open title with a tricky looking contest against young Brit, Jack Draper. Ranked just outside the world’s top 40, Draper was unlucky not to be seeded for this year’s event and would have represented a real threat to whoever he was drawn against. Nadal arrived at last year’s Australian Open with questions to answer over his fitness, and the same can be said again this year. With many believing this could be his final season on tour, Nadal has had a rough start to his season, losing to both Cameron Norrie and Alex De Minaur in this year’s inaugural United Cup. 

Against Draper he faces a man very much in form. Having risen through the ranks quickly, Draper reached the Semifinals in his first action of the year in Adelaide and is currently enjoying another deep run at the same venue. Young, and full of confidence – he will believe he can cause the shock in what could be a truly brilliant match. A fellow leftie with a big game, Draper won’t be deterred by the occasion and will back himself to cause the upset. However, despite the prospect of a tough match, Nadal should just have too much class for Draper and should prevail narrowly. 

Taylor Fritz (8) vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

American Taylor Fritz will be looking for a similar performance he had at the 2022 Australian Open where he reached the Round of 16. Fritz last played on an individual level at the ATP World Tour Finals where he lost in two tight sets in the Semifinals to Djokovic. Nikoloz Basilashvili last played in Adelaide, where he didn’t make it past the qualifying stage.

Aleksandar Ricliev

The American, Taylor Fritz, is coming to this tournament as the number 9 on the ATP list and one of the favorites to win the competition. The 25-year-old power-hitter is playing the best tennis of his career and will be a tough opponent for everyone. After losing to Novak Djokovic in the Turin Semifinals, Fritz has won 8 out of his last 9 matches. The relatively easy wins against Zverev and Medvedev in that period are a clear indicator of the form he is coming into the tournament in. He grows more comfortable and confident with every game, and this should be a nice opening fixture for him.

Nikoloz Basilashvili has had relatively good success in the matches against Fritz in his career, beating him in two out of four matches. However, the Georgian star is coming to the Australian Open tournament in bad form. He has had injury problems, and his performances have been more than shaky. He seems to be struggling against players of a much lower caliber than Fritz, and this game will be a massive mountain to climb for him. I expect Taylor Fritz to dominate this match from start to finish, ending up in a comfortable 3-0 win.

Denis Kirilov

Taylor Fritz enjoyed a fantastic 2022 season when he reached world number 8 and made it to the Quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Moreover, he won titles in Indian Wells and Tokyo which helped him climb the ladder. Fritz eventually qualified for the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, Italy. On top of that, the young talent managed to squeeze past the Group Stage after beating Rafa Nadal and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Fritz won 8 of his last 9 games on the tour which puts him in a great position heading into the Australian Open. He is currently one of the best performing players after winning both the Diriyah Tennis Cup and the United Cup. 

On the other hand, Nikoloz Basilashvili has been struggling lately. The 30-year-old tennis player dropped to world number 89 as he only made it to the third round at Wimbledon and reached one Final in Doha. Basilashvili’s game depends much on his psychological stability. He regularly crumbles under pressure and makes several unforced errors which turn out to be crucial for the outcome of his matches. That’s what I think will be decisive for his first round meeting with Fritz. The American knows how to tear him out which makes me pick a win for Fritz in straight sets.

Jack Hartman

Taylor Fritz enjoyed a breakthrough season in 2022, winning his first ATP 1000 title at Indian Wells and playing well enough to secure a spot in the season ending Tour Finals. Playing on his favorite surface, Fritz has started the season in excellent form, playing a key part in the USA’s victory in the United Cup. Playing against top quality opponents, so far in 2023 Fritz has enjoyed victories against Alexander Zverev, Hubert Hurkacz and Matteo Berrettini. Fritz kept busy in the off season and has won nine of his last 11 matches across both the United Cup and exhibitions. Seeded eight for this year’s tournament, many believe that Fritz could be this year’s dark horse and it would be no surprise to see him enjoy a deep run here. 

Like Rafael Nadal, Fritz has been afforded a tough opening round draw against the dangerous Georgian Nikoloz Basilashvili. A player that runs constantly hot and cold, Basilashvili suffered an injury plagued 2022 and those injuries may not have disappeared with him having to withdraw from his match against Mikel Ymer in his previous match. The two share a head to head record that stands at two wins apiece but it would be hard to imagine anything other than a Fritz victory here. 

Round 1 Tennis Picks at the Australian Open: Women’s Draw

Jessica Pegula (3) vs Jaqueline Cristian

The top seeded American, Jessica Pegula will be looking to kick off her Australian Open campaign with a bang against Jaqueline Cristian. Pegula last played at an individual level at the WTA Finals where she didn’t get a single win throughout her three Group Stage matches. Cristian has been in Australia playing before the Grand Slam, she was down in Hobart at the Hobart International, where she lost in the first round to the number one seed, Bouzková.

Aleksandar Ricliev

Jessica Pegula comes to the Australian Open ranked 3rd on the WTA list and as one of the favorites to win the competition. The fiery American is coming in great form in Australia, after comfortably and easily winning the WTA tournament in Mexico. Her powerful serve and shots continue to be an unsolvable enigma for opponents, and her footwork and desire to win are sublime. Women’s tennis is always unpredictable, and there are many surprises during a tournament, but anything less than a Semifinal run would be an underachievement for Pegula. Having beaten Swiatek only a few weeks ago in the United Cup, Pegula is ripe and ready for a champion’s run.

If we are being honest, Jacqueline Cristain should be more than happy to qualify for the Australian Open. She usually attends lower-rank tournaments, and the qualification for this tournament is a success for her on its own. I hope she can put up a fight, it will be great for her confidence and her growth in the future, but at this moment, this is a real David versus Goliath matchup. I can’t see a situation where Cristain can win even a set. This match should be a relatively fast, 2-sets-to-0 win for Pegula, covering the games spread.

Denis Kirilov

Jessica Pegula reached world number 3 in October after reaching the Quarterfinals at the 2022 US Open. The 28-year-old American had to wait some time before unleashing her potential in the WTA, but she was eventually gratified for her efforts. Pegula won her last 4 matches at the United Cup defeating Iga Swiatek and losing only four games in the process. Her consistency is what made her stand out from her opponents throughout the last two years. However, she is still looking to reach a maiden Semifinal appearance at a Grand Slam.

Jaqueline Cristian, on the other hand, had a decent 2022 season compared to her standards. The 24-year-old Romanian qualified for the main draw at the Australian Open and the US Open. She even reached the second round in Melbourne after defeating Greet Minnen in the first round. However, she seems to be classes below Jessica Pegula who is certainly the top favorite to win the match on Monday. Hence, I will go with the American covering her spread against the much more inexperienced Cristian. 

Jack Hartman

Jessica Pegula enjoyed a meteoric rise through the rankings in 2022 and she enters this year’s tournament ranked three in the world and as the third seed. Pegula reached the Quarterfinals in three of the four slams last year which included the Australian Open. It looks like Pegula has been handed the perfect opportunity to start this year’s tournament well and is the heavy favorite to advance to the second round against Jaqueline Cristian. 

The Romanian finds herself ranked just inside the world’s top 150 and will need to produce the match of her life if she is to emerge victorious. Pegula played a key role in the USA’s United Cup victory, winning four of her five matches which included an impressive straight set victory over world number one, Iga Swiatek. Many believe that Pegula has the power to win a Grand Slam and if she is to advance deep in the tournament she will need to be at her brilliant and consistent best. Look for Pegula to stamp her authority on the contest early in what should turn out to be a comfortable victory. 

Kateřina Siniaková vs Coco Gauff (7)

Kateřina Siniaková will have her work cut out for her, when she faces up against American, and seventh seed, Coco Gauff. Siniaková has been playing in Adelaide where she lost in the Round of 16 to the fourth seed, Garcia. Gauff’s last tournament was at the ASB Classic, where she was the number one seed, and took out the title, not dropping a set throughout the entire tournament.

Aleksandar Ricliev

Katerina Siniakova had a pretty decent 2022 and will be looking to add to her success, starting with the Australian Open. She usually plays in lower-tier tournaments, winning the Portoroz WTA in Slovenia and the W100 Grodzisk Mazowiecki ITF in Poland. The Australian Open presents a much bigger challenge for her, but she is an experienced player who can beat anyone on her day. The steady Czech star plays an impressive game and avoids making a lot of mistakes in her matches, so she won’t beat herself; opponents will have to play their best tennis if they want to advance forward.

Coco Gauff infuriates me. She has all the tools to be one of the best tennis players in the world, yet her gameplay fluctuates so much. One day, she seems impossible to beat, running all over the court, hitting all kinds of impossible shots. The very next day, she misplaces free hits, she makes all the wrong decisions, and it can be hard to watch. In the last match Gauff played against Siniakova, she lost by two sets to nil, only winning 1 game in the second set. If Gauff doesn’t come on the court ready for a fight, she might be out of the tournament in the first round! I am taking the total games over bet.

Denis Kirilov

Coco Gauff had a busy 2022 WTA season after topping her career highest rankings both in singles and in doubles. The 18-year-old American became world number 1 in the doubles and reached world number 4 among the singles. Gauff made it to the 2022 Roland Garros Final, but she was quite helpless against Iga Swiatek. The teenager has a solid first serve that often gets her out of trouble in her games. Despite being quite young, Gauff can easily be considered one of the most experienced players on the WTA Tour. 

On the other hand, Katerina Siniakova is Gauff’s toughest competition when it comes to doubles. The 26-year-old Czech player is currently a world number 1 in doubles which, however, doesn’t hurt her ambitions of topping her best result at the Australian Open. Siniakova has only made it to the second round in Melbourne in 2015 and 2018 as she finds it really hard to stop the up-and-coming players on hard surfaces. The Czech hopes to put an end to her 4-year losing streak at the Australian Open, but she will certainly have a tough time against Coco Gauff. However, I predict that the match will go into a third set after a tense battle in the opening stages.  

Jack Hartman

Coco Gauff is set for a huge 2023 and her year got off to the perfect start when she ended up victorious at this year’s Auckland Open. Despite the opposition not being the hardest, Gauff did what she had to do, winning the tournament without dropping a set. With her confidence flowing, Gauff would have been disappointed that she has been drawn against the tricky Katerina Siniakova in the opening round. 

The two met just a few weeks ago in the Billie Jean Cup, and it was the Czech player who ended out on top beating Gauff in straight sets 7-6, 6-1. An excellent player, Siniakova won her first WTA event at last year’s Slovenian Open and will be hoping she can advance deep into this year’s tournament. The two have met four times with Gauff leading the series 3-1 and fans of the young American will be hoping that her defeat last time out was just a blip. 

Anna Kalinskaya vs Danielle Collins (13)

Anna Kalinskaya will face off against American Danielle Collins in the first round here at the Australian Open. Kalinskaya was recently playing in Adelaide, where she went down to Bencic in the Round of 16. Collins was also at the Adelaide International, and she made it to the Quarterfinals before going down to sixth seed, Kudermetova, in three sets.

Aleksandar Ricliev

Anna Kalinskaya was the Australian Open junior champion in doubles in 2016. However, she has yet to have any success as a senior. She has played three times in the Australian Open tournament and she has yet to win a set. She has lost three times by 2-0. Kalinskaya showed some great performances in the Adelaide tournament. If she manages to repeat them, she can hope to have a chance to break that curse. However, the draw was unforgiving to her.

Danielle Collins has never lost in the first round of the Australian Open in her career. The 29-year-old American is coming to this tournament ranked 14th overall in the WTA list. Collins is an experienced player who knows how to deal with pressure and cope with the challenges a major tournament can present. On paper, this should be an easy, warm-up match for the American. However, Kalinskaya’s performances in Adelaide make me believe we could be in for an upset. I am not sure I would go as far as to bet on Kalinskaya to win the matchup, but I sure do expect to see her win her first set of the Australian Open in her career. That should easily cover the total games over spread. 

Denis Kirilov

Anna Kalinskaya has a fantastic opportunity to finally reach the second round in Melbourne for the first time in her career. The 24-year-old Russian might be a top 100 player, but she has only gone past the first match at the US Open, which is certainly a concerning fact for her game. Kalinskaya tends to rely much on her defensive skills which might come in handy against Danielle Collins. The young Russian will be determined to show the world what she is made of with a great upset over a serious contender. 

The former world number 7 will look to replicate her performance from the previous year in Melbourne when she reached the Final. Unfortunately, Collins wasn’t able to keep her form throughout the entire season which turned out to be decisive for her dropping out of the top 10. She had some tough clay and grass court performances which makes me think that she might struggle in the beginning of 2023 as well. Coping with an injury halfway through the season can easily negatively impact her game in the long-run. That’s why I will suggest going with the over total games option, hoping that Kalinskaya will be able to withstand the enormous pressure in her opening match.

Jack Hartman

Danielle Collins will start this year’s Australian Open dreaming that she can go one match better than last year’s tournament and capture her first Grand Slam title. After her run to last year’s Final, Collins would endure a frustrating season in the Slams, losing early at both the French Open and Wimbledon before losing in the fourth round of the US Open. It was a stop start campaign for the fiery American who missed large chunks of the season due to injury. Clearly back to full health, Collins has been busy in the last few weeks and was able to warm up for this year’s tournament by reaching the Quarterfinals in Adelaide. If at her best and fittest, Collins will start her Australian Open bid knowing that she can beat anyone in the draw. 

In the first round the American will face off against the Russian, Anna Kalinskya. Kalinskya had to qualify for this year’s Adelaide International but did so successfully before losing in the last sixteen to Belinda Bencic. This will be the first time that Kalinskya has played at the Australian Open since 2020 and in her three previous showings at the tournament, she is yet to advance past the first round. This will be the pair’s first ever meeting and this could be a great matchup between two players who love to hit the ball hard. Collins will start as the favorite and should have too much class and experience for her opponent. 

If you are interested in more news for the Australian Open then make sure you visit our tennis hub page, we’ve got all the details you need!

*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.