Free NHL Picks Today: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs 4/11/23

Free NHL Picks Today: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs 4/11/23
Tue 11th April 2023

The Tampa Bay Lightning (-130) will be hoping to snap their losing run when they play host to the Toronto Maple Leafs (+110) at Amalie Arena on Tuesday. The total is 6.5 (O: -115, U: -105)Toronto (48-21-11) is playing on back-to-back days after earning a 2-1 overtime win over the Panthers yesterday.

The Maple Leafs committed only two penalties in the game, holding Florida without a power play goal. Auston Matthews and John Tavares each scored once for the Maple Leafs. Ilya Samsonov had a great performance with 45 saves (.978%) in the win.

Tampa Bay (45-29-6) dropped their third in a row, falling 7-4 to the Senators on Saturday. Four players found the net for the Lightning. Victor Hedman scored and provided two assists to share the scoring lead with Steven Stamkos, who had three assists. Brian Elliott saved only 33 of 39 shots against (.846%) in the loss.


The teams have split their two meetings this season, the most recent of which was a 4-1 victory for the Maple Leafs in December. William Nylander led Toronto with two points (1G 1A). Vladislav Namestnikov scored Tampa Bay’s only goal. Matt Murray got the win, saving 18 of 19 shots (.947%).


Toronto is averaging 3.39 goals per game for the season, ninth in the NHL, and they are taking on a Lightning team that is allowing 3.10 goals a game (16th).

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has found the net 3.40 times a game on average, eighth in the league, and the Maple Leafs are allowing opponents to score 2.69 goals per game (7th).

Look for a few power play opportunities for the Maple Leafs, as the Lightning have been penalized 4.46 times a game, fourth-most in the NHL, for an average of 12.06 minutes (third-highest). The visitors are averaging 3.61 penalties (17th) and 8.26 penalty minutes a game (21st).

The Lightning’s 25.93% power play percentage is the second-best in the league, while Toronto’s 25.52% conversion rate ranks third. When it comes to defending power plays, Toronto has the league’s 11th-ranked PK% at 81.93%, while Tampa Bay is 15th at 79.84%.


With 99 points this season, Mitchell Marner is the top skater for the Maple Leafs. He is among the league leaders with 69 assists (5th) and has added 30 goals of his own.

In the net, Samsonov (27-10-5) is Toronto’s top goaltender by goals against average. He has a 2.33 GAA, fifth-best in the league, and a .919% save percentage.

Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning in scoring with 110 points (3rd in the league). He has 30 goals and 80 assists (2nd) in 80 games. Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-21-4) is the top goalie for Tampa Bay with a goals against average of 2.63. He has a save percentage of .916%.


Toronto is 21-13-5 away from home this season. Tampa Bay is 27-7-5 at Amalie Arena this season. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs are 8-5 without a day off and 5-4 playing with a rest disadvantage. The Lightning are 5-1 with a rest advantage.

SportsTips’ NHL Pick:

TB Lightning (-200)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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