Super Bowl LV Prop Bet Prediction: First Touchdown Scorer

Super Bowl LV Prop Bet Prediction: First Touchdown Scorer
Mon 1st February 2021

One of the most popular prop bets in the NFL is the first touchdown scorer so we thought we would break down some stats for you heading into Super LV

Here are the odds, courtesy of BET365, for first touchdown scorer for Super Bowl LV.

Kansas City Odds Tampa Bay Odds
Travis Kelce  +650 Chris Godwin  +1000
Tyreek Hill +650 Leonard Fournette  +1000
Clyde Edwards-Helaire  +1100 Mike Evans +1000
Darrell Williams  +1100 Antonio Brown  +1400
Patrick Mahomes +1600 Rob Gronkowski  +1400
Mecole Hardman +2000 Ronald Jones III  +1400
Sammy Watkins +2000 Scott Miller +2200
Le’Veon Bell +2200 Cameron Brate +2500
Byron Pringle +3300 Tom Brady +2800

Kansas City and Tampa Bay are two of the highest scoring offenses this season and we have analysed who has scored the first touchdown in all of their games from this season, as well as a positional breakdown on the first touchdown scorer from previous Super Bowls.

Kansas City Chiefs

First we look at the Kansas City Chiefs. Looking at this postseason, Patrick Mahomes scored the first touchdown of the game against Cleveland in the Divisional Round while Mecole Hardman scored the Chiefs’ first touchdown against Buffalo, but didn’t score the first of the game in the AFC Championship. 

From their 18 games this season, Kansas City received the ball first just seven times and scored the first touchdown on all seven occasions, whether it be on the opening drive or a subsequent drive later on. Things were different from the 11 times they didn’t receive the ball first, only scoring the first touchdown on three of those occasions, which is just 27%. Overall Kansas City scored the first touchdown in 10 of their 18 games, good enough for 56%. 

First Touchdown Other Team First Touchdown
Ball First 7 0
Other Team Ball First 3 8
Total 10 (56%) 8 (44%)

In terms of which Kansas City player scored their first touchdown the most from their 18 games, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill shared the honours with five a piece. Patrick Mahomes was next best with three games scoring the first touchdown while Mecole Hardman was able to twice, including against Buffalo in the AFC Championship. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle all scored the Chiefs’ first touchdown once. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There were some very interesting trends found when looking at Tampa Bay games from this season in that the first five games of the season saw the Bucs score the first touchdown of the game, before going nine weeks where their opposition scored the first touchdown and then scoring the first touchdown in each of their last five games. 

When breaking down whether getting the ball first impacted whether they scored the first touchdown, there was a similar effect. On the 12 occasions Tampa Bay got the ball first, they managed to score the first touchdown of the game eight times, 67%. When they didn’t get the ball first, things were a lot worse, scoring the first touchdown in just two of seven such games, 29%. 

First Touchdown Other Team First Touchdown
Ball First 8 4
Other Team Ball First 2 5
Total 10 (53%) 9 (47%)

From the Buccaneers’ 18 games where they scored a touchdown (were held without a TD in week 9 vs New Orleans), Mike Evans scored Tampa Bay’s first touchdown on FOUR occasions while Ronald Jones was just behind with THREE. Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate and Tom Brady each scored the Bucs’ first touchdown twice while Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette and Scott Miller had the honour once.

Other Stats of Note

When looking at the positional breakdown of each team’s first touchdown scorer, the wide receivers reigned supreme, scoring 9/18 for Kansas City and 8/19 for Tampa Bay. Both teams had tight ends as their next best option, with Travis Kelce being all five of Kansas City’s. Tampa Bay utilized their running backs far more than the Chiefs while Mahomes managed to score the first touchdown on one more occasion than Brady. 

Kansas City Position Tampa Bay
3 Quarterback 2
1 Running Back 4
9 Wide Receiver 8
5 Tight End 4

Given that the Super Bowl will be held at Raymond James Stadium, this is essentially a home game for the Buccaneers. We analysed the two sides’ eight games that apply to this situation, Kansas City’s eight road games and Tampa Bay’s eight home games, to see if we could find any trends. 

First Touchdown Other Team First Touchdown
Kansas City on road 5 3
Tampa Bay at home 3 5

As you can see, Kansas City scored the first touchdown in 62.5% of their road games while Tampa Bay managed to score the first touchdown in just 37.5% of their home games. 

Last Ten Super Bowls

When analysing the first touchdown scorer from the last ten Super Bowls, there are some very interesting trends that we have found.

First Touchdown Other Team First Touchdown
Ball First 6 4
Better Record 0 7
Favorite 4 6
Wins Game 9 1

When looking at the team who got the ball first, their team scored the first touchdown of the game on six occasions, while the team that had to defend first scored the first major on four occasions.

While this statistic doesn’t help us now, if you are quick in your fingers and find out which team will be getting the ball first after the coin flip happens, you can jump on and select some of the players we have highlighted above. 

One of the more interesting stats that we found was the team with the better record hasn’t scored the first touchdown in any of the last ten Super Bowls. On three occasions, the two sides had the same record but the seven other times, the team with the worse regular season record scored first. That doesn’t bode well for Kansas City who finished with a 14-2 record, compared to Tampa Bay’s 11-5. 

One that may not be that surprising is that the team that ends up winning the game scored the first touchdown on nine of ten occasions. One that is surprising is that six out of ten underdogs were the ones that scored the opening touchdown. That is another statistic leaning towards the Buccaneers. 

If you are looking towards a certain trend based on what conference the team was from, stop looking as teams representing the AFC and NFC had a perfect split of 5-5 in terms of who scored the first touchdown. 

The last historical trend we will look at is which positions score the first touchdown the most. Over the last ten years, wide receivers have been the first dagger on five occasions while running backs have had three, quarterbacks one and defense one as well. That bodes well for both Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans who lead their teams for first touchdowns scored. 

Super Bowl Prediction

There are a couple of trends that we are following to make our final predictions for first touchdown scorer. The most glaring trend is that over the last ten years, the team with the better regular season record didn’t score the first touchdown of the game once.

The next most damning trend is that the team that scores the first touchdown went on to win the game in nine of the last ten Super Bowls. So based off that, Tampa Bay should be scoring the first touchdown, or whichever team you think will be winning the game. 

When looking at the positional history of both, previous Super Bowls and each teams’ season, wide receiver is the safest bet, specifically Tyreek Hill or Mike Evans, depending on which team you are leaning towards. 

Below is our $100 outlay plan to hopefully lock in some profit to start off the game. 

Odds Risk Payout Profit (Payout – $100)
Tyreek Hill +650 $25.00 $187.50 $87.50
Mike Evans +1000 $20.00 $220.00 $120.00
Travis Kelce +650 $17.50 $131.25 $31.25
Ronald Jones +1400 $11.50 $172.50 $72.50
Patrick Mahomes +1600 $10.00 $170.00 $70.00
Rob Gronkowski +1400 $10.00 $150.00 $50.00
Tom Brady +2800 $6.00 $174.00 $74.00

By following this plan, you can profit anywhere from $31.25 up to $120 if any of the seven chosen players score the first touchdown of the game!!

*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of  Bet365

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Stay tuned for more Super Bowl odds, news, picks and predictions every day this week as we countdown to Chiefs vs Bucs in Super Bowl LV.

Are you interested in finding out more on the latest season of the NFL? Then make sure you visit our NFL hub page, we’ve got all the details you need!

Image by: RJ Erigio

Tim is a keen follower of all American sports, in particular the NBA and NFL. He has followed both sports for over a decade and would happily sit down and watch every game, regardless of who is playing! No matter the sport, whether it be NFL and NBA or even MLB, NHL and UFC, Tim covers it from every angle, keeping up to date with all the news to bring you the most up-to-date information and the best picks and predictions across all sports.