Super Bowl LV Prop Bet Prediction: First Touchdown Scorer

Super Bowl LV Prop Bet Prediction: First Touchdown Scorer
Mon 1st February 2021

One of the most popular prop bets in the NFL is the first touchdown scorer so we thought we would break down some stats for you heading into Super LV

Here are the odds, courtesy of BET365, for first touchdown scorer for Super Bowl LV.

Kansas CityOddsTampa BayOdds
Travis Kelce +650Chris Godwin +1000
Tyreek Hill+650Leonard Fournette +1000
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +1100Mike Evans+1000
Darrell Williams +1100Antonio Brown +1400
Patrick Mahomes+1600Rob Gronkowski +1400
Mecole Hardman+2000Ronald Jones III +1400
Sammy Watkins+2000Scott Miller+2200
Le’Veon Bell+2200Cameron Brate+2500
Byron Pringle+3300Tom Brady+2800

Kansas City and Tampa Bay are two of the highest scoring offenses this season and we have analysed who has scored the first touchdown in all of their games from this season, as well as a positional breakdown on the first touchdown scorer from previous Super Bowls.

Kansas City Chiefs

First we look at the Kansas City Chiefs. Looking at this postseason, Patrick Mahomes scored the first touchdown of the game against Cleveland in the Divisional Round while Mecole Hardman scored the Chiefs’ first touchdown against Buffalo, but didn’t score the first of the game in the AFC Championship. 

From their 18 games this season, Kansas City received the ball first just seven times and scored the first touchdown on all seven occasions, whether it be on the opening drive or a subsequent drive later on. Things were different from the 11 times they didn’t receive the ball first, only scoring the first touchdown on three of those occasions, which is just 27%. Overall Kansas City scored the first touchdown in 10 of their 18 games, good enough for 56%. 

First TouchdownOther Team First Touchdown
Ball First70
Other Team Ball First38
Total10 (56%)8 (44%)

In terms of which Kansas City player scored their first touchdown the most from their 18 games, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill shared the honours with five a piece. Patrick Mahomes was next best with three games scoring the first touchdown while Mecole Hardman was able to twice, including against Buffalo in the AFC Championship. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle all scored the Chiefs’ first touchdown once. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There were some very interesting trends found when looking at Tampa Bay games from this season in that the first five games of the season saw the Bucs score the first touchdown of the game, before going nine weeks where their opposition scored the first touchdown and then scoring the first touchdown in each of their last five games. 

When breaking down whether getting the ball first impacted whether they scored the first touchdown, there was a similar effect. On the 12 occasions Tampa Bay got the ball first, they managed to score the first touchdown of the game eight times, 67%. When they didn’t get the ball first, things were a lot worse, scoring the first touchdown in just two of seven such games, 29%. 

First TouchdownOther Team First Touchdown
Ball First84
Other Team Ball First25
Total10 (53%)9 (47%)

From the Buccaneers’ 18 games where they scored a touchdown (were held without a TD in week 9 vs New Orleans), Mike Evans scored Tampa Bay’s first touchdown on FOUR occasions while Ronald Jones was just behind with THREE. Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate and Tom Brady each scored the Bucs’ first touchdown twice while Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette and Scott Miller had the honour once.

Other Stats of Note

When looking at the positional breakdown of each team’s first touchdown scorer, the wide receivers reigned supreme, scoring 9/18 for Kansas City and 8/19 for Tampa Bay. Both teams had tight ends as their next best option, with Travis Kelce being all five of Kansas City’s. Tampa Bay utilized their running backs far more than the Chiefs while Mahomes managed to score the first touchdown on one more occasion than Brady. 

Kansas CityPositionTampa Bay
1Running Back4
9Wide Receiver8
5Tight End4

Given that the Super Bowl will be held at Raymond James Stadium, this is essentially a home game for the Buccaneers. We analysed the two sides’ eight games that apply to this situation, Kansas City’s eight road games and Tampa Bay’s eight home games, to see if we could find any trends. 

First TouchdownOther Team First Touchdown
Kansas City on road53
Tampa Bay at home35

As you can see, Kansas City scored the first touchdown in 62.5% of their road games while Tampa Bay managed to score the first touchdown in just 37.5% of their home games. 

Last Ten Super Bowls

When analysing the first touchdown scorer from the last ten Super Bowls, there are some very interesting trends that we have found.

First TouchdownOther Team First Touchdown
Ball First64
Better Record07
Wins Game91

When looking at the team who got the ball first, their team scored the first touchdown of the game on six occasions, while the team that had to defend first scored the first major on four occasions.

While this statistic doesn’t help us now, if you are quick in your fingers and find out which team will be getting the ball first after the coin flip happens, you can jump on and select some of the players we have highlighted above. 

One of the more interesting stats that we found was the team with the better record hasn’t scored the first touchdown in any of the last ten Super Bowls. On three occasions, the two sides had the same record but the seven other times, the team with the worse regular season record scored first. That doesn’t bode well for Kansas City who finished with a 14-2 record, compared to Tampa Bay’s 11-5. 

One that may not be that surprising is that the team that ends up winning the game scored the first touchdown on nine of ten occasions. One that is surprising is that six out of ten underdogs were the ones that scored the opening touchdown. That is another statistic leaning towards the Buccaneers. 

If you are looking towards a certain trend based on what conference the team was from, stop looking as teams representing the AFC and NFC had a perfect split of 5-5 in terms of who scored the first touchdown. 

The last historical trend we will look at is which positions score the first touchdown the most. Over the last ten years, wide receivers have been the first dagger on five occasions while running backs have had three, quarterbacks one and defense one as well. That bodes well for both Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans who lead their teams for first touchdowns scored. 

Super Bowl Prediction

There are a couple of trends that we are following to make our final predictions for first touchdown scorer. The most glaring trend is that over the last ten years, the team with the better regular season record didn’t score the first touchdown of the game once.

The next most damning trend is that the team that scores the first touchdown went on to win the game in nine of the last ten Super Bowls. So based off that, Tampa Bay should be scoring the first touchdown, or whichever team you think will be winning the game. 

When looking at the positional history of both, previous Super Bowls and each teams’ season, wide receiver is the safest bet, specifically Tyreek Hill or Mike Evans, depending on which team you are leaning towards. 

Below is our $100 outlay plan to hopefully lock in some profit to start off the game. 

OddsRiskPayoutProfit (Payout – $100)
Tyreek Hill+650$25.00$187.50$87.50
Mike Evans+1000$20.00$220.00$120.00
Travis Kelce+650$17.50$131.25$31.25
Ronald Jones+1400$11.50$172.50$72.50
Patrick Mahomes+1600$10.00$170.00$70.00
Rob Gronkowski+1400$10.00$150.00$50.00
Tom Brady+2800$6.00$174.00$74.00

By following this plan, you can profit anywhere from $31.25 up to $120 if any of the seven chosen players score the first touchdown of the game!!

*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of  Bet365

Do you love a good deal? 

Well then check out this MASSIVE (and SportsTips exclusive) offer from PointsBet for the Super Bowl! Bet $25 on the Spread or Moneyline for the Big Game, Get $155 in free bets if one point is scored in the game.

Yep you read that right, all you need to do is bet $25 and wait for one team to score 1 point. Then cha-ching, you’ve won your PointsBet free bets! 

pointsbet super bowl free bets

Stay tuned for more Super Bowl odds, news, picks and predictions every day this week as we countdown to Chiefs vs Bucs in Super Bowl LV.

Are you interested in finding out more on the latest season of the NFL? Then make sure you visit our NFL hub page, we’ve got all the details you need!

Image by: RJ Erigio

Tim is a keen follower of all American sports, in particular the NBA and NFL. He has followed both sports for over a decade and would happily sit down and watch every game, regardless of who is playing! No matter the sport, whether it be NFL and NBA or even MLB, NHL, UFC and all sports, Tim covers it from every angle, staying in the loop to bring you the most up-to-date information and the best picks and predictions on the market.