A massive Sunday of NFL action coming up and there are plenty of games that impact divisional seeding and playoff opportunities.
Our Week 11 NFL Best Bets are riding the trends and following the hot teams, with all three best bets having won at least two games in a row.
Check our our week 11 best bets & picks below:
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
The 4-5 Patriots are fresh off two straight wins, including a massive Sunday Night Football victory over the Ravens, and are travelling to Houston to take on the 2-7 Texans.
New England is slowly getting back to full strength and may have found the recipe to winning meaningful football games. Run the ball, let Cam make judgement calls but limit his passing, and run the ball some more.
Last week Damien Harris rushed for 121 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and now comes up against a Houston defense that allows a league high amount of rushing yards per game.
Oh and Sony Michel is due to return from injury, helping bolster the running back stocks of the team that already has the third most rushing yards per contest.
This was way too easy for Cam.
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/m8Jt6IxbIu
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 16, 2020
Houston have had a rough two weeks, struggling to beat Jacksonville before scoring just seven points against the Browns, albeit that Cleveland had horrifically bad weather. The Texans have won two games all season, both against the Jaguars and have only been competitive in one of their seven losses.
The Texans’ saving grace, Deshaun Watson. Despite being overshadowed by the likes of Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa, Watson is one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the league and has the sixth best quarterback rating this season.
The Patriots passing defense has the third worst DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) in the league, and coming up against Watson, at home, is a bit of a worry. However, with the postseason getting closer and closer, the Patriots need to keep winning.
The spread is under two points and the Patriots’ ultimate strength is the Texans’ biggest weakness. New England to win this, cover and keep their playoff chances alive.
Best Bet: New England Patriots -1.5 (-110)
Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos
The 3-6 Denver Broncos are reeling at the moment, with things only getting worse by hosting the hottest team in the league, the 6-3 Miami Dolphins.
This is the first time in over three years that the Dolphins are favoured in a game on the road, highlighting how well they are playing at the moment. It could also potentially be that the Broncos really aren’t that good… but more on that later.
Miami have won five straight games, including Tua’s first three career starts. Through three games he hasn’t thrown an interception and has sparked the offense to continue this incredible run.
The Dolphins’ calling card is their defense that is top five in points allowed and even had the Chargers’ offense ‘pretty confused out there’, according to their star receiver Keenan Allen. What will make things even easier for this incredible defense is that they are playing a team that doesn’t have a starting caliber quarterback.
Three starts, three wins for @Tua 🐬🐬🐬@MiamiDolphins | #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/J8FrS3EVpB
— NFL (@NFL) November 16, 2020
Drew Lock is listed as questionable with bruised ribs, but he has been far from spectacular this year, throwing seven touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions. His potential replacement, Brett Rypien, is no better, having just two touchdowns and four picks in three games this season.
This could easily be a danger game for the Dolphins, and many would think they are well overdue for a loss, but this Miami team is becoming a scary force in the AFC and is only half a game behind the Bills for the AFC East.
This Dolphins’ defense will keep on causing issues, Tua will keep the offense firing and this Miami team will keep rolling on for their sixth straight win and cover the spread.
Best Bet: Miami Dolphins -3.5 (-104)
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
The Dallas Cowboys come off a bye and travel to Minnesota to face a Vikings team that has turned their season around to sit at 4-5.
Dallas has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season, being just 2-7 on the season and have gone through four different quarterbacks. Andy Dalton is set to return to the lineup, but that isn’t necessarily such a great thing.
Dalton suffered a concussion four weeks ago and then tested positive for COVID-19 and was quoted as saying that it ‘hit [him] hard’. We have seen with numerous players throughout the league that they take a couple of games to get back in the swing of things after returning from the virus.
Even when healthy, Dalton has started three games for the Cowboys this season with a 1-2 record, throwing just one touchdown and three interceptions! The one win was by just three points over the New York Giants as well…
FINAL: Make it three straight wins for the @Vikings! #MINvsCHI #SKOL
(by @Lexus) pic.twitter.com/J75UAixRwo
— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2020
Minnesota on the other hand turned a 1-5 start into a 4-5 record after Week 10 action, winning three straight against their three NFC North rivals. Over that stretch Dalvin Cook has established himself as the best running back in the game, averaging 197 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns per contest.
Cook did struggle in the first half against a tough Chicago Bears defense, but after Akiem Hicks went out, Cook came alive and returned to his best. He now faces a Dallas defense that allows the second most rushing yards per game in the league.
Minnesota has a red hot chance of winning games and making a run for the postseason. This will continue on against a struggling Cowboys outfit. Dallas is just 1-8 against the spread so far this season, whereas the Vikings, despite a 4-5 record, are 6-3 against the spread and are soon to be 7-3.
Take Minnesota to win big and cover the spread.
Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings -7.0 (-110)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.
