We are half way through the season with all teams having played eight games and there is still no clarity in the playoff picture.
Our week 10 NFL best bets this week involve four teams in the race to the postseason but we have mixed up our betting methods a bit. We have a cold and rainy affair that should go under the mark set, while a shootout between two of the league’s best offenses will go over. We finished with one of the NFC’s best teams taking care of business at home.
Check our our week 10 best bets & picks below:
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns
The 5-3 Cleveland Browns play host to the 2-6 Houston Texans in what is looking to be a wet and windy day in NorthEast Ohio.
The Texans are coming off just their second win of the season against the lowly Jaguars. Their only other win of the season, their first matchup with the lowly Jaguars…
Houston deserves some slack, as five of their six losses were against top eight teams in the league, but they haven’t been the same Texans team of previous seasons. With all of the offseason drama that carried into the first month of the season, Houston has never found a rhythm and their record shows. And to make things worse, they might be without one of their best offensive weapons in running back David Johnson.
Houston’s defense allows the third most yards per game and most rushing yards per game in the league. Cleveland is expecting Nick Chubb, who was a top five running back before his injury, to return from IR this week, pairing him with the dangerous Kareem Hunt. That doesn’t bode well for that Houston defense.
Good to see @NickChubb21 back at practice 🙌 pic.twitter.com/okUcXuDhaH
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 11, 2020
The Browns took a hit with the loss of Odell Beckham Jr, but are still well and truly in the hunt for an AFC wildcard slot and need to take care of business at home against a 2-6 team.
The weather is going to be shocking so expect this to be a low scoring slog, with the Browns coming out on top.
Best Bet: Under 48.5 (-110)
Next Best: Cleveland Browns -3.5 (-105)
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
We have what looks to be an absolute shootout in Arizona when the 7-2 Buffalo Bills travel to face the 5-3 Cardinals. The Bills are coming off their biggest win of the season where they defeated the Seahawks 44-34 at home. The Cards had a tough fought contest against Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, falling 31-34 at home.
The Buffalo Bills have been paced by star quarterback Josh Allen, who has jumped up to second in our week 10 MVP power rankings. Through nine weeks, Allen is 3rd in the league in passing yards and his number one receiver and offseason acquisition, Stefon Diggs, is ranked first in the league in receiving yards.
.@JoshAllenQB was simply superb in Week 9.
31/38. 415 passing yards. Four total touchdowns.📊@BuffaloBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/EfY5RYGxCI
— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2020
Kyler Murray, who is sixth in those same power rankings, has played exceptionally to start the season, and his mix of running ability and passing game has seen the Cardinals offense ranked offensively for the last two weeks. Arizona is ranked first in total yards and sixth in points per game.
Buffalo has managed to score over 30 in five of their nine games and seven of their last nine contests have gone over. Arizona’s games have gone over in five of their last six while managing to score 30 in five of their eight, including the last four games.
A perfect, sunny day with no wind and two high scoring, free flowing offenses. This one is going over and will be a pleasure to watch.
Best Bet: Over 56.5 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Green Bay Packers
The 1-7 Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Green Bay to face the 6-2 Packers in a contest of two teams on opposite ends of their conferences. The Jags are coming off a 25-27 loss to the Texans, their closest contest since their week one victory. The Packers bounced back with a 34-17 pounding of the injury-riddled 49ers.
Green Bay is just 2-2 in their last four, with losses against the Bucs and the Vikings alternating with victories over the Texans and the previously mentioned 49ers. They were 4-0 before that though and their six victories have come at an average margin of victory of 13.83 points, with four of them being 14 points or more.
What this indicates is that the Packers take care of the teams that they should, and when they do, they really do.
If you take away the massive loss against the Bucs, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 24 touchdowns and no interceptions in his other seven contests, and now both Davante Adams and Aaron Jones are firing on all cylinders.
Aaron Rodgers has a 𝟕𝟓-𝟖 𝐓𝐃-𝐈𝐍𝐓 ratio in his last 40 games 🔥
No other player has matched those numbers in NFL history. (via @EliasSports) pic.twitter.com/1t0E7BOnhs
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 7, 2020
Jacksonville on the other hand have been stuck towards the bottom of the AFC. Gardner Minshew hasn’t been able to play up to the same level of last year when he took the league by storm. The Jags seven game losing streak has seen an average margin of defeat of 10.71 points, including four by 10 or more points.
Jacksonville has no incentive to win in the race for Trevor Lawrence while traveling to Green Bay, who needs to keep winning to extend their lead in the NFC North and keep pace with the Seahawks and Saints on top of the NFC standings. This is a massive spread, but Rodgers and the Packers will take care of business at home, win this one big and cover.
Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -13.5 (-105)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of PointsBet.
