The Super Bowl is finally here and it is time for our last NFL Best Bets of the season! We have broken down every possible aspect of this game in order to provide you with an informed and on the money pick against the spread for Super Bowl LV.
When these sides met in week 12, the margin was three points in favour of Kansas City. The Chiefs are three point favorites for this one and we have made our pick for which side will cover below!
Quick Best Bet For Super Bowl LV
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-105)
2. Under 56 (-105)
Super Bowl LV
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Raymond James Stadium
The GOAT vs the baby GOAT.
Tom Brady v Patrick Mahomes.
Legacies on the line.
We have made our Super Bowl LV picks, which sees the reigning and defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who become the first team in the Super Bowl era to host the final game of the season.
Our moneyline and total points picks are locked and loaded, but let’s dive into the spread, where PointsBet currently has Kansas City as three point favorites.
Super Bowl Analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs ended the regular season with the best record in the league, 14-2, and could have easily finished 15-1 if they didn’t rest multiple starters in a week 17 loss to the Chargers.
They then came out and beat the Browns despite losing Mahomes early in the third quarter to concussion and followed it up by cruising by the Bills by two touchdowns and keeping them to just 24 points.
Mahomes completed over 76% of his passes, finishing with 325 yards and three touchdowns, while the running game got going with 114 rushing yards and two touchdowns, led by Darrel Williams’ 52 yards and a touchdown.
Patrick Mahomes’ stats today:
29 for 38, 325 yards, 3 TDs, 127.6 passer rating
13 receptions, 118 yards, 2 TDs
9 receptions, 172 yards
— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) January 25, 2021
The defense was the big winner though, keeping Buffalo to just 26 points, sacking Josh Allen four times and getting an interception. When this defense faced Tampa Bay in week 12, they got one sack, one tackle for loss and two interceptions, helping set up the 27-24 win.
They failed to cover the spread that day and in fact, Kansas City’s 14 point win over Buffalo in the AFC Championship game was just the first time they had covered the spread from their last 10 games.
The Chiefs were favored in 17 of their 18 games and the three point spread set for this game would tie their lowest as favorites for the season. On the other two times when they were favored by exactly three points, they won one (last week) and had a push against the New Orleans Saints in week 15.
That is the same Saints side that the Buccaneers beat in the Divisional Round by 10 points. Tampa Bay were 2.5 point underdogs in that contest and obviously covered, setting up an NFC Championship game with Green Bay, where they were three point underdogs, much like this Sunday. They managed to win by five points with Brady throwing for 280 yards and three touchdowns and Leonard Fournette rushing for 55 yards and one TD.
The Bucs have covered the spread in their last two games, four of their last five and six of their last eight. They ended the regular season 9-7 ATS and were 5-3 at home, where Sunday’s match will be played.
— NFL (@NFL) February 4, 2021
When these sides met in week 12, Kansas City were favored by 3.5 points and the total points line was set at 56. The Chiefs ended up winning 27-24, meaning the Bucs covered and the total went under.
Kansas City almost played as perfect as possible in that one, especially in the first quarter where they jumped to a 17-0 lead and Tyreek Hill had 203 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
On the other side, Tampa Bay were nowhere near their best for the field 2-3 quarters and only managed to get back in it late with a 14-0 last quarter. Brady threw two picks in that game and if he has more turnovers than Mahomes, the Bucs might not have a serious chance in this one, despite having a better defense.
A key matchup of note is the Bucs’ scary front seven and the banged up Chiefs’ offensive line. Already missing right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, Kansas City copped another hit when two time Pro Bowl left tackle Eric Fisher tore his achilles.
They now face a defense that sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and had another four tackles for loss. This means that Mahomes will have less time in the pocket, receivers will have less time to run their routes and the offense becomes less explosive. Whether Kansas City can keep the Bucs’ front seven at bay or not will determine the outcome of this game.
Super Bowl Experience
The story of the last two weeks has been how Mahomes and the Chiefs have now reached their second straight Super Bowl, beating the Niners 31-20 last year. After trailing 20-10 heading into the last quarter, the Chiefs scored three unanswered touchdowns to take the lead and end up winning.
Another year, another Super Bowl patch for @PatrickMahomes
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) February 4, 2021
Mahomes threw for 286 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in that game but the star of the show was Damien Williams. The Chiefs’ running back had 107 rushing yards and one TD on 17 carries while also receiving 29 yards and a touchdown as well.
Unfortunately for Kansas City, Williams opted out of this season due to COVID-19 and they have replaced him with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire who is battling to come back to full health after struggling with injuries for the second half of the year.
Tyreek Hill had 105 receiving yards but no touchdowns while Travis Kelce was kept to just 43 yards but managed to catch one in the end zone for Kansas City. The pair could easily be the best two receiving options for either side in Super Bowl LV, highlighted by Hill and Kelce being third and fourth favorites, behind Mahomes and Brady, for Super Bowl MVP.
Tampa Bay on the other hand are very inexperienced when it comes to postseason and Super Bowl experience, with many Buccaneers players winning their first playoff games against Washington in the Wild Card round.
However they have Tom Brady, who will be starting in his tenth Super Bowl, the most of all time, and has plenty of experience on the grandest stage of them all. Brady is 6-3 from his previous nine Super Bowls, averaging 315 passing yards and two touchdowns per game.
While Brady has the most Super Bowl experience of any player in this game, he only has three games of postseason experience with his current team, but almost more importantly, his coach. When things get tested, will the same reliance on the receivers and the play calling be there?
Retweet if you’re pulling for the @Buccaneers to win Super Bowl LV.
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) February 3, 2021
Super Bowl Prediction
We are taking Tom Brady and the Buccaneers with three points.
This was the margin of their week 12 matchup and Brady had two picks while the Bucs didn’t really come alive until it was already too late. On the other side, Mahomes and Hill both had games well above their average, especially in the first quarter.
Fisher is a big loss on the offensive line, especially against a defense that averaged three sacks during the regular season and had five in the NFC Championship. If the Bucs can get to Mahomes and make him uncomfortable for the full 60 minutes, it will allow Brady and the offense to get on the field and chew some clock.
Brady is just 4-5 ATS from his nine Super Bowl appearances, however he only started as an underdog once and not only did he cover, but he won straight up. Given how poorly Kansas City has been against the spread for the second half of this season, 1-8-1 from their last ten, we like Tampa Bay to keep this one close.
Many are viewing this as a passing of the torch game from Brady to Mahomes, but we are seeing it as another opportunity for Brady to stick it to the haters and remain on top of the game. Take the Bucs with the points.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-105)
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