Free NFL Picks Today: Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons 11/27/22

Free NFL Picks Today: Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons 11/27/22
Sun 27th November 2022

The Atlanta Falcons (5-6, 1-4 Away) head to face the Washington Commanders (6-5, 2-3 Home) at FedEx Field on Sunday. The Commanders are 4.5-point favorites, and the total is 40.5. Atlanta is coming off a close 27-24 win over the Chicago Bears at Mercedes-Benz Stadium last Sunday.

Marcus Mariota was 13 of 20 for 131 yards and a touchdown. Tyler Allgeier ran eight times for 55 yards. Kyle Pitts caught three passes for 43 yards. Washington beat the Houston Texans 23-10 at NRG Stadium last Sunday. Taylor Heinicke threw for 191 yards. Antonio Gibson carried 18 times for 72 yards and added three catches for 31 yards. Logan Thomas had five receptions for 65 yards.


The Commanders won the only meeting between the teams last season, a 34-30 victory in October. Taylor Heinicke threw three touchdowns for Washington, as Terry McLaurin scored twice. Matt Ryan tossed four touchdowns for Atlanta, as Cordarrelle Patterson added three receiving TDs.


The Falcons are averaging 23.6 points per game for the season, 12th in the NFL, and they are facing a Commanders defense that has surrendered 20.3 PPG (12th). Meanwhile, Washington has scored 19.5 points a game this season, 23rd in the league, and Atlanta is allowing 24.9 PPG (27th).

The Falcons rank as one of the league’s top teams in rushing yards per game (159.4, 3rd), while they are 31st in passing yards (170.7). The Commanders are 14th in passing yards allowed per game (224.2) and sixth against the run (103.1).

Washington is 21st in the league in passing yards per game (229.1) and 16th in rushing (116.1). Atlanta’s defense has been most beatable through the air, as the Falcons are 29th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (277.4).

Against the run, the Falcons are 21st (123.1).Washington ranks as the one of the lowest volume red zone offenses in the NFL, advancing inside the 20-yard-line just 2.6 times per game (31st) and scoring a touchdown on 52% of those possessions (22nd).


Through 11 games, Marcus Mariota has thrown for 13 touchdowns (7 INT) and 170.7 yards per game to lead Atlanta in passing. In five away games this season, he has seven TDs (4 INT) and an average of 176.4 yards passing.

Tyler Allgeier leads the team in rushing with an average of 49.8 yards a game over 10 games. He has one touchdown on the ground. Drake London is the Falcons’ leading receiver with 37.2 yards a game and four TDs.

Carson Wentz has 10 passing touchdowns (6 INT) with 248.2 yards per game through six games to lead Washington. In three home games this season, he has thrown for six TDs (3 INT) and an average of 294.3 yards.

Antonio Gibson has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 40.4 yards a game through 11 games. He has five total touchdowns, three rushing and two receiving. Terry McLaurin has been the primary target in the Commanders’ aerial attack.

He has two touchdowns and a 72.0 yard per game average through 11 appearances. Terry McLaurin is averaging 7.3 targets per game (4.5 receptions).


Atlanta has lost three in a row away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season.

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

Washington Commanders (-190)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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