The Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1, 1-1-1 Away) and their outstanding passing offense travel to take on the Tennessee Titans (3-2, 1-1 Home), one of the league’s weakest aerial defenses, at Nissan Stadium on Sunday. The Titans are 2.5-point favorites, and the total is 42.
Indianapolis is coming off a 34-27 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium last Sunday. Matt Ryan threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns. Deon Jackson ran 12 times for 42 yards and a touchdown. He added 10 receptions for 79 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. was targeted 16 times, catching 13 passes for 134 yards.
Tennessee won for the third straight game on October 9, beating the Washington Commanders 21-17 at FedEx Field. Ryan Tannehill was 15 of 25 for 181 yards and a touchdown. Derrick Henry carried 28 times for 102 yards and two touchdowns and added two catches for 30 yards. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine caught two receptions for 72 yards.
The Titans won the first meeting between the teams this season, a 24-17 victory on October 2, their fourth straight win against Indianapolis. Ryan Tannehill threw two touchdowns for Tennessee. Matt Ryan tossed two touchdowns for Indianapolis, as Mo Alie-Cox found the end zone twice.
TALE OF THE TAPE
The Colts are averaging 17.2 points per game for the season, 27th in the NFL, and they are facing a Titans defense that has surrendered 23.6 PPG (21st). Meanwhile, Tennessee has scored 19.2 points a game this season, 21st in the league, and Indianapolis is allowing 20.2 PPG (14th).
The Colts rank as one of the league’s top teams in passing yards per game (294.2, 3rd), while they are 29th in rushing yards (83.7). Look for them to exploit a matchup advantage through the air, as the Titans are worst in the league in passing yards allowed per game (305.4). Against the run, Tennessee is fifth (103.2).
Tennessee is 27th in the league in passing yards per game (194.2) and 21st in rushing (102.8), while the Colts are allowing 218.8 passing yards (10th) and 121.0 rushing yards per game (21st).
Tennessee ranks as the most productive red zone offense in the NFL despite being one of the lowest volume red zone teams. The Titans move inside the 20-yard-line only 2.6 times per game (31st), yet they score a touchdown on 92% of those possessions (1st).
Through six games, Matt Ryan has thrown for eight touchdowns (7 INT) and 294.2 yards per game to lead Indianapolis in passing. In three away games this season, he has one TD (6 INT) and an average of 266.0 yards passing.
Jonathan Taylor leads the team in rushing with an average of 82.0 yards a game over four games. He has one touchdown on the ground. Michael Pittman Jr. is the Colts’ leading receiver with 83.4 yards a game and one TD. He is averaging 7.6 receptions on 10.4 targets per game.Ryan Tannehill has six passing touchdowns (3 INT) with 193.0 yards per game through five games to lead Tennessee.
In two home games this season, he has thrown for three TDs (1 INT) and an average of 265.0 yards. Derrick Henry has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 81.6 yards a game through five games. He has five touchdowns. Robert Woods has been the primary target in the Titans’ passing game. He has one touchdown and a 40.8 yard per game average through five appearances.
SportsTips’ NFL Pick:
Tennessee Titans (-145)
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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.