Free NFL Picks Today: New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins 1/1/23

Free NFL Picks Today: New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins 1/1/23
Sun 1st January 2023

The Miami Dolphins (8-7, 3-5 Away) will be hoping to end their losing streak when they head to face the New England Patriots (7-8, 3-4 Home) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. The Patriots are three-point favorites, and the total is 41. Miami is coming off a 26-20 loss at the hands of the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium last Sunday, their fourth consecutive defeat.

Tua Tagovailoa threw for 310 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions. Raheem Mostert ran eight times for 45 yards. Jaylen Waddle caught five passes for 143 yards and a touchdown.

New England lost 22-18 to the Cincinnati Bengals at Gillette Stadium last Saturday. Mac Jones was 21 of 33 for 240 yards and two touchdowns.

Rhamondre Stevenson carried 13 times for 30 yards. Kendrick Bourne scored once. He was targeted nine times, hauling in six receptions for 100 yards.


The Dolphins won the first meeting between the teams this season, a 20-7 victory in September, their fourth straight win against New England. Tua Tagovailoa threw one touchdown for Miami.


The Dolphins are averaging 24.3 points per game for the season, ninth in the NFL, and they are facing a Patriots defense that has surrendered 19.4 PPG (5th). Meanwhile, New England has scored 21.2 points a game this season, 16th in the league, and Miami is allowing 24.7 PPG (27th).

The Dolphins rank as one of the league’s top teams in passing yards per game (289.9, 2nd), while they are 27th in rushing yards (95.9). The Patriots are 17th in passing yards allowed per game (234.0) and ninth against the run (107.8).

New England is 22nd in the league in passing yards per game (224.5) and 22nd in rushing (108.6). Miami’s defense has been most vulnerable through the air, as the Dolphins are 29th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (261.9).

Against the run, the Dolphins are 10th (109.1).New England ranks as the weakest red zone threat in the NFL, advancing inside the 20-yard-line only 2.6 times per game and scoring a touchdown on just 39% of those possessions.


Through 13 games, Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 25 touchdowns (8 INT) and 272.9 yards per game to lead Miami in passing. In seven away games this season, he has 17 TDs (5 INT) and an average of 276.7 yards passing. Raheem Mostert leads the team in rushing with an average of 56.5 yards a game over 14 games. He has three touchdowns on the ground.

Tyreek Hill is the Dolphins’ leading receiver with 108.8 yards a game and seven TDs. He is averaging 7.5 receptions on 10.5 targets per game. Mac Jones has nine passing touchdowns (8 INT) with 212.5 yards per game through 12 games to lead New England.

In six home games this season, he has thrown for four TDs (4 INT) and an average of 193.7 yards. Rhamondre Stevenson has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 62.9 yards a game through 15 games.

He has six total touchdowns, five rushing and one receiving. Jakobi Meyers has been a key target in the Patriots’ aerial attack. He has four touchdowns and a 60.2 yard per game average through 12 appearances.


Miami is seeking to snap a three-game losing skid on the road this season.

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

Miami Dolphins (+135)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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