Free NFL Picks Today: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills 12/1/22

Free NFL Picks Today: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills 12/1/22
Thu 1st December 2022

The Buffalo Bills (8-3, 4-2 Away) head to face the New England Patriots (6-5, 3-2 Home) at Gillette Stadium on Thursday. The Bills are four-point favorites, and the total is 43.5. Buffalo is coming off a tight 28-25 win over the Detroit Lions at Ford Field last Thursday.

Josh Allen threw for 253 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He also ran 10 times for 78 yards and a touchdown. Isaiah McKenzie was targeted 10 times, catching six passes for 96 yards and a touchdown.

New England lost 33-26 to the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium last Thursday. Mac Jones was 28 of 39 for 382 yards and two touchdowns. Rhamondre Stevenson carried seven times for 36 yards and added nine catches for 76 yards. DeVante Parker caught four receptions for 80 yards.


The teams last met in last season’s AFC Wild Card Playoffs when the Bills secured their place in the Divisional round with a 47-17 victory. The teams split their two regular season meetings last year, the last of which was a 33-21 win for the Bills in December.


The Bills are averaging 28.1 points per game for the season, second in the NFL, and they are facing a Patriots defense that has surrendered 18.4 PPG (6th). Meanwhile, New England has scored 21.7 points a game this season, 18th in the league, and Buffalo is allowing 18.1 PPG (5th).

The Bills rank as one of the league’s top teams in passing yards per game (290.1, 4th), while they are eighth in rushing yards (136.7). The Patriots are 11th in passing yards allowed per game (220.6) and ninth against the run (109.3).

New England is 19th in the league in passing yards per game (235.1) and 23rd in rushing (109.0), while the Bills are allowing 239.6 passing yards (19th) and 105.6 rushing yards per game (7th).

New England ranks as one of the least productive red zone offenses in the NFL, advancing inside the 20-yard-line only 2.8 times per game (31st) and scoring a touchdown on just 39% of those possessions (31st). Buffalo has been tough to beat when defending their own red zone, holding opponents to a conversion percentage of only 49% (4th).


Through 11 games, Josh Allen has thrown for 23 touchdowns (11 INT) and 289.4 yards per game to lead Buffalo in passing. In six away games this season, he has 11 TDs (6 INT) and an average of 282.8 yards passing. Josh Allen also leads the team in rushing with an average of 51.0 yards per game.

He has five touchdowns on the ground. Stefon Diggs is the Bills’ leading receiver with 100.9 yards a game and nine TDs. He is averaging 7.6 receptions on 10.8 targets per game.Mac Jones has six passing touchdowns (7 INT) with 221.0 yards per game through eight games to lead New England.

In four home games this season, he has thrown for one TD (4 INT) and an average of 181.8 yards. Rhamondre Stevenson has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 61.8 yards a game through 11 games.

He also has been valuable as a receiver, racking up 32.6 yards a game through the air. He has five total touchdowns, four rushing and one receiving. Jakobi Meyers has been a key target in the Patriots’ passing game. He has three touchdowns and a 63.4 yard per game average through nine appearances.

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

Buffalo Bills (-190)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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