Free NFL Picks Today: Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers 10/23/22

Free NFL Picks Today: Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers 10/23/22
Mon 24th October 2022

The Miami Dolphins (3-3, 2-1 Home) and their powerful passing offense host the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4, 1-2 Away), one of the league’s weakest aerial defenses, at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday. The Dolphins are 7.5-point favorites, and the total is 45.5. Pittsburgh is coming off a tight 20-18 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Acrisure Stadium last Sunday. Mitch Trubisky was 9 of 12 for 144 yards and a touchdown.

Najee Harris ran 14 times for 42 yards. Chase Claypool caught seven passes for 96 yards and a touchdown. Miami dropped a third straight game last Sunday, falling 24-16 to the Minnesota Vikings at Hard Rock Stadium. Teddy Bridgewater threw for 418 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Raheem Mostert carried 14 times for 49 yards. Tyreek Hill was targeted 15 times, hauling in 12 receptions for 177 yards.


The teams are meeting in the regular season for the first time since October 2019, a 27-14 win for the Steelers.


The Steelers are averaging 16.2 points per game for the season, 30th in the NFL, and they are facing a Dolphins defense that has surrendered 25.8 PPG (27th). Meanwhile, Miami has scored 21.8 points a game this season, 18th in the league, and Pittsburgh is allowing 24.3 PPG (22nd).

The Steelers rank as one of the league’s worst teams in rushing yards per game (86.7, 28th), while they are 24th in passing yards (218.5). The Dolphins are 25th in passing yards allowed per game (271.0) and 11th against the run (104.7).Miami has been one of the league’s top passing teams, averaging 302.0 passing yards per game (2nd), while ranking 30th in rushing yards (81.2).

Pittsburgh’s defense has been susceptible through the air, as the Steelers are 30th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (289.8). Against the run, the Steelers are 18th (120.2).Pittsburgh is averaging 2.7 trips to the red zone a game this season, second lowest in the NFL, finding the end zone 50% of the time (21st).

The Steelers will be looking to improve on those numbers against one of the league’s weakest red zone defenses, as the Dolphins have allowed opponents to score on 70% of red zone trips (28th). Miami ranks as one of the biggest red zone threats in the league despite being one of the lowest volume red zone teams.

The Dolphins advance inside the 20-yard-line only 2.8 times per game (29th), yet they score a touchdown on 71% of those possessions (4th).


Through five games, Mitch Trubisky has thrown for three touchdowns (2 INT) and 159.4 yards per game to lead Pittsburgh in passing. In two away games this season, he has one TD and an average of 200.5 yards passing.

Najee Harris leads the team in rushing with an average of 44.0 yards a game over six games. He has one touchdown on the ground. Diontae Johnson is the Steelers’ leading receiver with 49.2 yards a game. He is averaging 5.5 receptions on 9.5 targets per game.

Tua Tagovailoa has eight passing touchdowns (3 INT) with 258.8 yards per game through four games to lead Miami. In two home games this season, he has thrown for two TDs and an average of 228.0 yards. Raheem Mostert has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 51.5 yards a game through six games.

He has one touchdown. Tyreek Hill has been a workhorse in the Dolphins’ aerial attack. He has two touchdowns and a 116.8 yard per game average through six appearances. Tyreek Hill is averaging 10.8 targets per game (8.3 receptions).

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

Miami Dolphins (-350)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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