Free NFL Picks Today: Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans 11/27/22

Free NFL Picks Today: Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans 11/27/22
Sun 27th November 2022

The streaking Miami Dolphins (7-3, 4-1 Home) welcome the Houston Texans (1-8-1, 1-4-0 Away), who will be hoping to halt their losing streak, at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday. The Dolphins are 14-point favorites, and the total is 47.

Houston is coming off a 23-10 loss against the Washington Commanders at NRG Stadium last Sunday, their fifth straight defeat. Davis Mills was 19 of 33 for 169 yards and two interceptions. He also ran five times for 10 yards and a touchdown. Brandin Cooks caught three passes for 70 yards.

Miami won for the fourth straight game on November 13, beating the Cleveland Browns 39-17 at Hard Rock Stadium. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 302 yards and three touchdowns. Jeff Wilson Jr. carried 17 times for 119 yards and a touchdown. Jaylen Waddle caught four receptions for 66 yards.


The Dolphins won the only game between the teams last season, a 17-9 victory in November. Jacoby Brissett tossed one touchdown for Miami, as Myles Gaskin added a rushing TD.


The Texans are averaging 15.9 points per game for the season, 30th in the NFL, and they are facing a Dolphins defense that has surrendered 24.1 PPG (22nd). Meanwhile, Miami has scored 25.2 points a game this season, sixth in the league, and Houston is allowing 23.0 PPG (18th).

The Texans rank as one of the league’s worst teams in rushing yards per game (93.7, 29th), while they are 26th in passing yards (214.4). The Dolphins are 22nd in passing yards allowed per game (253.9) and 16th against the run (116.9).

Miami has been one of the league’s top passing teams, averaging 305.9 passing yards per game (2nd), while ranking 27th in rushing yards (97.7). The Texans are allowing 223.0 passing yards (12th) and 178.9 rushing yards per game (32nd).

Houston is averaging 2.7 trips to the red zone a game this season, second lowest in the NFL, finding the end zone 44% of the time (29th). The Texans will be looking to improve on those numbers against one of the league’s weakest red zone defenses, as the Dolphins have allowed opponents to score on 69% of red zone trips (28th).


Through 10 games, Davis Mills has thrown for 11 touchdowns (11 INT) and 214.4 yards per game to lead Houston in passing. In five away games this season, he has four TDs (4 INT) and an average of 236.6 yards passing.

Dameon Pierce leads the team in rushing with an average of 78.0 yards a game over 10 games. He has three touchdowns on the ground. Brandin Cooks is the Texans’ leading receiver with 51.2 yards a game and one TD.

He is averaging 4.3 receptions on 7.3 targets per game. Tua Tagovailoa has 18 passing touchdowns (3 INT) with 283.1 yards per game through eight games to lead Miami. In four home games this season, he has thrown for six TDs and an average of 250.5 yards.

Raheem Mostert has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 54.3 yards a game through 10 games. He has four total touchdowns, three rushing and one receiving.

Tyreek Hill has been a star in the Dolphins’ aerial attack. He has four touchdowns and a 114.8 yard per game average through 10 appearances. Tyreek Hill is averaging 10.6 targets per game (8.1 receptions).

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

Miami Dolphins -14 (-110)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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