Free NFL Picks Today: Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins 12/11/22

Free NFL Picks Today: Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins 12/11/22
Sun 11th December 2022

Two of the league’s top passing offenses are set to face off at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, as the Los Angeles Chargers (6-6, 2-3 Home) play host to the Miami Dolphins (8-4, 3-3 Away). The Dolphins are three-point favorites, and the total is 53.5. Miami is coming off a 33-17 loss against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium last Sunday.

Tua Tagovailoa was 18 of 33 for 295 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Raheem Mostert ran seven times for 30 yards. Tyreek Hill was targeted 14 times, catching nine passes for 146 yards and a touchdown. Los Angeles lost 27-20 to the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium last Sunday.

Justin Herbert threw for 335 yards and a touchdown. Austin Ekeler carried 10 times for 35 yards and added five catches for 67 yards. Keenan Allen scored once. He was targeted 14 times, hauling in six receptions for 88 yards.


The teams are meeting in the regular season for the first time since November 2020, a 29-21 win for the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa threw two touchdowns for Miami. Justin Herbert tossed two touchdowns for Los Angeles.


The Dolphins are averaging 24.9 points per game for the season, eighth in the NFL, and they are facing a Chargers defense that has surrendered 25.8 PPG (30th). Meanwhile, Los Angeles has scored 22.7 points a game this season, 14th in the league, and Miami is allowing 24.1 PPG (25th).

The Dolphins rank as one of the league’s top teams in passing yards per game (304.9, 2nd), while they are 28th in rushing yards (89.7). The Chargers are 18th in passing yards allowed per game (233.8) and 29th against the run (151.6).

Los Angeles has been one of the league’s top passing teams, averaging 278.3 passing yards per game (5th), while ranking 31st in rushing yards (84.7). The Dolphins are allowing 251.7 passing yards (22nd) and 110.5 rushing yards per game (9th).


Through 10 games, Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 21 touchdowns (5 INT) and 285.9 yards per game to lead Miami in passing. In five away games this season, he has 14 TDs (5 INT) and an average of 311.6 yards passing. Raheem Mostert leads the team in rushing with an average of 52.1 yards a game over 11 games.

He has three touchdowns on the ground. Tyreek Hill is the Dolphins’ leading receiver with 114.9 yards a game and five TDs. He is averaging 8.0 receptions on 10.8 targets per game. Justin Herbert has 20 passing touchdowns (7 INT) with 278.2 yards per game through 12 games to lead Los Angeles.

In five home games this season, he has thrown for eight TDs (4 INT) and an average of 277.4 yards. Austin Ekeler has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 49.1 yards a game through 12 games.

He also has been valuable as a receiver, racking up 47.0 yards a game through the air. He has 12 total touchdowns, seven rushing and five receiving. Joshua Palmer has been a key target in the Chargers’ aerial attack.

He has three touchdowns and a 55.6 yard per game average through 11 appearances. Joshua Palmer is averaging 7.8 targets per game (5.2 receptions).

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

Miami Dolphins (-175)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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