Free NFL Picks Today: Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills 11/24/22

Free NFL Picks Today: Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills 11/24/22
Thu 24th November 2022

The Buffalo Bills (7-3, 3-2 Away) and their great passing offense travel to face the Detroit Lions (4-6, 2-3 Home), one of the league’s softest aerial defenses, at Ford Field on Thursday. The Bills are nine-point favorites, and the total is 53.5. Buffalo is coming off a 31-23 win over the Cleveland Browns at Ford Field on Sunday.

Josh Allen was 18 of 27 for 197 yards and a touchdown. James Cook ran 11 times for 86 yards. Dawson Knox caught seven passes for 70 yards. Detroit won for the third straight game on Sunday, beating the New York Giants 31-18 at MetLife Stadium. Jared Goff threw for 165 yards. Justin Jackson carried nine times for 66 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown was targeted eight times, hauling in seven receptions for 76 yards.


The teams are meeting in the regular season for the first time since December 2018, a 14-13 win for the Bills.


The Bills are averaging 28.1 points per game for the season, second in the NFL, and they are facing a Lions defense that has surrendered 28.2 PPG (32nd). Meanwhile, Detroit has scored 25.0 points a game this season, eighth in the league, and Buffalo is allowing 17.4 PPG (4th).

The Bills rank as one of the league’s top teams in passing yards per game (293.8, 3rd), while they are ninth in rushing yards (134.0). Look for them to exploit a matchup advantage through the air, as the Lions are 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (273.6).

Against the run, Detroit is 31st (153.7). Detroit is 14th in the league in passing yards per game (244.8) and 10th in rushing (132.8), while the Bills are allowing 239.6 passing yards (20th) and 106.6 rushing yards per game (8th).

Detroit ranks as one of the biggest red zone threats in the NFL, scoring a touchdown on 71% (5th) of the team’s possessions inside the 20. Buffalo has been tough to beat when defending their own red zone, holding opponents to a conversion percentage of only 45% (3rd).


Through 10 games, Josh Allen has thrown for 21 touchdowns (10 INT) and 293.0 yards per game to lead Buffalo in passing. In five away games this season, he has nine TDs (5 INT) and an average of 288.8 yards passing. Josh Allen also leads the team in rushing with an average of 48.3 yards per game.

He has four touchdowns on the ground. Stefon Diggs is the Bills’ leading receiver with 103.3 yards a game and eight TDs. He is averaging 7.6 receptions on 10.4 targets per game. Jared Goff has 15 passing touchdowns (7 INT) with 244.2 yards per game through 10 games to lead Detroit.

In five home games this season, he has thrown for 13 TDs (3 INT) and an average of 261.4 yards. Jamaal Williams has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 66.8 yards a game through 10 games.

He has 12 touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been the primary target in the Lions’ passing game. He has three touchdowns and a 66.0 yard per game average through nine appearances. Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 8.7 targets per game (6.2 receptions).

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

Over 54.5 (-110)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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