Free NFL Picks Today: Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs 12/11/22

Free NFL Picks Today: Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs 12/11/22
Sun 11th December 2022

The Denver Broncos (3-9, 2-3 Home) and their superb defense host the Kansas City Chiefs (9-3, 4-2 Away) and their great offense at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday. The Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites, and the total is 44.

Kansas City is coming off a close 27-24 loss against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium last Sunday. Patrick Mahomes was 16 of 27 for 223 yards and a touchdown.

Isiah Pacheco ran 14 times for 66 yards and a touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught two passes for 71 yards. Denver dropped a fourth straight game last Sunday, falling 10-9 to the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.

Russell Wilson threw for 189 yards. Latavius Murray carried 17 times for 47 yards. Greg Dulcich was targeted eight times, hauling in six receptions for 85 yards.


The Chiefs won both games between the teams last season, including a 28-24 win in their last meeting in January, their 10th straight win against Denver. Patrick Mahomes threw two touchdowns for Kansas City.


The Chiefs are averaging 29.2 points per game for the season, best in the NFL, and they are facing a Broncos defense that has surrendered 17.0 PPG (2nd). Meanwhile, Denver has scored 13.8 points a game this season, worst in the league, and Kansas City is allowing 22.5 PPG (15th).

The Chiefs rank as the league’s top team in passing yards per game (317.3, 1st), while they are 17th in rushing yards (116.8). They will be matching strength against strength through the air, as the Broncos are second in the league in passing yards allowed per game (203.2). Against the run, Denver is 19th (120.1).

Denver is 19th in the league in passing yards per game (231.9) and 24th in rushing (102.9), while the Chiefs are allowing 258.0 passing yards (23rd) and 106.2 rushing yards per game (6th). Kansas City is averaging 4.4 trips to the red zone a game this season, second most in the NFL, finding the end zone 66% of the time (5th).

The Chiefs will have to overcome the league’s best red zone defense, as the Broncos have allowed opponents to score on only 32% of red zone trips. Denver ranks as one of the least productive red zone offenses in the league, moving inside the 20-yard-line only 2.0 times per game (33rd) and scoring a touchdown on just 38% of those possessions (31st). Kansas City has had difficulty defending their own red zone, allowing opponents to find the end zone 66% of the time (30th).


Through 12 games, Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 30 touchdowns (8 INT) and 317.3 yards per game to lead Kansas City in passing. In six away games this season, he has 16 TDs (3 INT) and an average of 307.7 yards passing. Isiah Pacheco leads the team in rushing with an average of 43.4 yards a game over 12 games.

He has three touchdowns on the ground. Travis Kelce is the Chiefs’ leading receiver with 80.7 yards a game and 12 TDs. He is averaging 6.4 receptions on 9.0 targets per game.

Russell Wilson has eight passing touchdowns (5 INT) with 232.5 yards per game through 11 games to lead Denver. In four home games this season, he has thrown for one TD (3 INT) and an average of 231.0 yards.

Latavius Murray has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 50.6 yards a game through eight games. He has four touchdowns.

Courtland Sutton has been a key target in the Broncos’ aerial attack. He has one touchdown and a 57.3 yard per game average through 12 appearances. Courtland Sutton is averaging 7.4 targets per game (4.3 receptions).


Denver is seeking to end a three-game losing skid at home this season.

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

KC Chiefs -9.5 (-110)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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