Free NFL Picks Today: Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins 9/29/22

Free NFL Picks Today: Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins 9/29/22
Thu 29th September 2022

The Miami Dolphins (3-0, 1-0 Away) will be looking to add to their unbeaten start when they travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2, 0-1 Home) at Paycor Stadium on Thursday. The Bengals are four-point favorites, and the total is 47. Miami is coming off a tight 21-19 win over the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 186 yards and a touchdown. Chase Edmonds ran six times for 21 yards and two touchdowns. Jaylen Waddle caught four passes for 102 yards. Cincinnati beat the New York Jets 27-12 at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. Joe Burrow was 23 of 36 for 275 yards and three touchdowns. Samaje Perine carried nine times for 47 yards. Tyler Boyd also scored once. He had four receptions for 105 yards.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

The teams are meeting in the regular season for the first time since December 2020, a 19-7 win for the Dolphins. Tagovailoa tossed one touchdown for Miami, as Mike Gesicki scored once.

TALE OF THE TAPE

The Dolphins are averaging 27.7 points per game so far this season, eighth in the NFL, and they are facing a Bengals defense that has surrendered 18.3 PPG (9th). Meanwhile, Cincinnati has scored 21.3 points a game this season, 10th in the league, and Miami is allowing 21.3 PPG (16th). The Dolphins rank as one of the league’s top teams in passing yards per game (308.3, 2nd), while they are 31st in rushing yards (64.0). The Bengals are 14th in passing yards allowed per game (238.0) and eighth against the run (86.0). Cincinnati is 10th in the league in passing yards per game (270.7) and 20th in rushing (97.0). Miami’s defense has been most beatable through the air, as the Dolphins are 31st in the league in passing yards allowed per game (310.3). Against the run, the Dolphins are 20th (116.0).Miami has found the end zone on 78% of trips to the red zone this season, fourth most in the NFL, making the most of the relatively few 3.0 trips a game (29th). Cincinnati ranks as the one of the lowest volume red zone offenses in the league, moving inside the 20-yard-line just 3.3 times per game (29th) and scoring a touchdown on 50% of those possessions (21st).

TOP PERFORMERS

Through three games, Tagovailoa has thrown for eight touchdowns (2 INT) and 308.3 yards per game to lead Miami in passing. In one previous away game this season, he had six TDs (2 INT) and 469 yards passing. Edmonds leads the team in rushing with an average of 26.3 yards a game over three games. He has two touchdowns on the ground. Waddle is the Dolphins’ leading receiver with 114.0 yards a game and three TDs. He is averaging 6.3 receptions on 10.0 targets per game. Burrow has six passing touchdowns (4 INT) with 270.7 yards per game through three games to lead Cincinnati. In one prior home game this season, he threw for two TDs (4 INT) and 338 yards. Joe Mixon has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 54.3 yards a game through three games. He also has been valuable as a receiver, accumulating 34.3 yards a game through the air. Ja’Marr Chase has been a key target in the Bengals’ passing game. He has two touchdowns and a 70.7 yard per game average through three appearances. Chase is averaging 11.7 targets per game (7.0 receptions).

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

Cincinnati Bengals (-190)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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