Free NFL Picks Today: Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins 11/6/22

Free NFL Picks Today: Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins 11/6/22
Sun 6th November 2022

The Miami Dolphins (5-3, 2-2 Away) and their great passing offense travel to face the Chicago Bears (3-5, 2-1 Home) and their tremendous aerial defense at Soldier Field on Sunday. The Dolphins are 4.5-point favorites, and the total is 45.5.

Miami is coming off a 31-27 win over the Detroit Lions at Ford Field last Sunday. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 382 yards and three touchdowns. Raheem Mostert ran 14 times for 64 yards. Tyreek Hill was targeted 14 times, catching 12 passes for 188 yards.

Chicago lost 49-29 to the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium last Sunday. Justin Fields was 17 of 23 for 156 yards and two touchdowns. Khalil Herbert carried 16 times for 99 yards and a touchdown. Darnell Mooney had five receptions for 70 yards.


The teams are meeting in the regular season for the first time since October 2018, a 31-28 win for the Dolphins.


The Dolphins are averaging 22.3 points per game for the season, 16th in the NFL, and they are facing a Bears defense that has surrendered 22.6 PPG (19th). Meanwhile, Chicago has scored 19.4 points a game this season, 23rd in the league, and Miami is allowing 24.0 PPG (22nd).

The Dolphins rank as one of the league’s top teams in passing yards per game (306.9, 3rd), while they are 28th in rushing yards (88.1). They will be matching strength against strength through the air, as the Bears are third in the league in passing yards allowed per game (198.9).

Against the run, Chicago is 31st (156.0).Chicago has been the league’s top rushing team, averaging 188.4 yards per game, while ranking 32nd in passing yards (150.5). The Dolphins are allowing 275.5 passing yards (26th) and 100.6 rushing yards per game (6th).Miami has found the end zone on 70% of red zone trips this season, fourth most in the NFL, making the most of the relatively few 2.9 trips a game (29th).


Through six games, Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 12 touchdowns (3 INT) and 279.7 yards per game to lead Miami in passing. In three away games this season, he has nine TDs (3 INT) and an average of 320.3 yards passing.

Raheem Mostert leads the team in rushing with an average of 56.5 yards a game over eight games. He has one touchdown on the ground. Tyreek Hill is the Dolphins’ leading receiver with 120.1 yards a game and two TDs.

He is averaging 8.6 receptions on 11.5 targets per game.Justin Fields has seven passing touchdowns (6 INT) with 149.9 yards per game through eight games to lead Chicago. In three home games this season, he has thrown for three TDs (4 INT) and an average of 139.0 yards.

Khalil Herbert has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 70.4 yards a game through eight games. He has five total touchdowns, four rushing and one receiving. Darnell Mooney has been a key target in the Bears’ aerial attack, averaging 45.5 yards per game through eight appearances.

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

Miami Dolphins (-200)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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